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Publications (10 of 111) Show all publications
Börjesson, M., Fung, C. M., Proost, S. & Yan, Z. (2018). Do buses hinder cyclists or is it the other way around?: Optimal bus fares, bus stops and cycling tolls. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 111, 326-346
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Do buses hinder cyclists or is it the other way around?: Optimal bus fares, bus stops and cycling tolls
2018 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 111, p. 326-346Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper optimises the number of bus stops, and prices for car, bus and cycling in the busiest inner city corridor in Stockholm. We adopt the representative consumer approach and calibrate the current equilibrium using the quasi-linear utility function. We find that the number of bus stops is already close to optimal. Welfare would increase if the peak frequency was increased, if the bus fares were lowered and differentiated between long trips and short trips and, and that the toll for longer car trips was increased. The optimal toll for cyclists, and the welfare benefit from it, is small and does not compensate the transaction costs. The distributional effects of bus fare changes and higher car tolls are small because on one hand, high income groups place more value on travel time gains, but on the other hand, low income groups travel less frequently by car. Surprisingly, we find that in the welfare optimum, the bus service only requires a small subsidy due to congestion in the bus lane, crowding in the buses, and extra boarding and alighting time per passenger. The Mohring effect is limited because the demand, and thereby the baseline frequency, is already high.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2018
Keywords
Bus stops, Congestion, Cycling, Optimal pricing of urban transport, Public transport
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-227587 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2018.03.023 (DOI)000433265100025 ()2-s2.0-85044607709 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20180515

Available from: 2018-05-15 Created: 2018-05-15 Last updated: 2018-06-15Bibliographically approved
Lorenzo Varela, J. M., Börjesson, M. & Daly, A. (2018). Estimating Values of Time on National travel survey data. In: : . Paper presented at 7th Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation. hEART 2018.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimating Values of Time on National travel survey data
2018 (English)Conference paper, Poster (with or without abstract) (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The Value of Travel Time (VTT) is fundamental in transport economics. Since 1984 (MVA et al., 1984) best practice for VTT estimation has been to use Stated Choice (SC) data. However, there is now plenty of evidence of reference dependence and gain-loss asymmetry in SC data, implying that such data do not reveal long-term stable preferences. This is a serious problem since the value of time is often applied in welfare analyses, where long-term stability of the preferences is a key assumption. A potential reason for the strong reference dependence found in SC data is the emphasis on a short-term reference point often used in SC data to reduce hypothetical bias. In the long-run there is no stable reference point. Also, the use of Stated Choice data always raises the issue of the credibility of hypothetical responses.

An alternative to SC data is to use revealed preference (RP) data and a mode choice model to estimate the VTT. Observed behaviour has adapted to the (more stable) travel conditions and should thus be ruled by more long-term preferences. Many countries collect NTS (national travel survey) data and spend considerable resources on making them representative, which is an argument for using them for VTT estimation. However, a key problem in the use of NTS data for VTT estimation is measurement errors in the travel time and travel cost variables. Time and cost in NTS data is either self-reported or derived from a network assignment model.

In this paper we estimate the distribution of the VTT whilst controlling for errors in the self-reported and model computed time and cost variables.

Keywords
Value of time, latent variables, RP data
National Category
Economics Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-233762 (URN)
Conference
7th Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation. hEART 2018
Note

QC 20180828

Available from: 2018-08-28 Created: 2018-08-28 Last updated: 2018-08-29Bibliographically approved
Lorenzo Varela, J. M., Börjesson, M. & Daly, A. (2018). Public transport: One mode or several?. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 113, 137-156
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Public transport: One mode or several?
2018 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 113, p. 137-156Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper develops a methodology for testing and implementing differences in preferences for a set of public transport modes, relating to observed and unobserved attributes, in state-of-practice large-scale travel demand models. Results of a case study for commuters in the Stockholm public transport system suggest that there are preference differences among public transport modes. We found that the value of time for train is lower than for bus and metro, and that it is higher for auxiliary modes than for the main mode. Surprisingly, we found no evidence for differences proportional to the in-vehicle time between bus and metro, suggesting that characteristics of in-vehicle time in these two modes are valued equally by the travellers. Nevertheless, unobserved preference for metro is higher than the preference for bus. Regarding the existence of a rail factor, we find evidence to support the hypothesis that rail-based modes have in fact a smaller time parameter (train) or higher alternative specific constant (metro), indicating that rail modes are preferable to bus, ceteris paribus.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2018
Keywords
Choice behaviour, Demand forecast, Generalised travel cost, Rail factor, Unobserved preferences, Value of travel time
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-227524 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2018.03.018 (DOI)000438180900010 ()2-s2.0-85045651681 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20180516

Available from: 2018-05-16 Created: 2018-05-16 Last updated: 2018-08-06Bibliographically approved
Lorenzo Varela, J. M., Börjesson, M. & Daly, A. (2018). Quantifying errors in travel time and cost by latent variables in transport demand models. In: : . Paper presented at 15th International conference on travel behavior research. (IATBR 2018).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Quantifying errors in travel time and cost by latent variables in transport demand models
2018 (English)Conference paper, Oral presentation with published abstract (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Travel time and travel cost are key variables for explaining travel behaviour and deriving the value of time. However, a general problem in transport modelling is that these variables are subject to measurement errors in transport network models. In this paper we show how to assess the magnitude of the measurement errors in travel time and travel cost by latent variables, in a large-scale travel demand model. The case study for Stockholm commuters shows that assuming multiplicative measurement errors for travel time and cost result in a better fit than additive ones, and that parameter estimates of the choice model are impacted by some of the key modelling assumptions. Moreover, our results suggest that measurement errors in our dataset are larger for the travel cost than for the travel time, and that measurement errors are larger in self-reported travel time than software-calculated travel time for car-driver and car-passenger, and of similar magnitude for public transport. Among self-reported travel times, car-passenger has the largest errors, followed by car-driver and public transport, and for the software-calculated times, public transport exhibits larger errors than car.  These errors, if not corrected, lead to biases in measures derived from the models, such as elasticities and values of travel time.

Keywords
Hybrid choice models, Latent variables, Error quantification, Measurement error models, RP Value of Time, Self-reported indicators
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Economics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-233763 (URN)
Conference
15th International conference on travel behavior research. (IATBR 2018)
Note

QC 20180828

Available from: 2018-08-28 Created: 2018-08-28 Last updated: 2018-08-28Bibliographically approved
Börjesson, M. & Kristoffersson, I. (2018). The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 107, 35-51
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on
2018 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 107, p. 35-51Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Time-of-day dependent cordon-based congestion charging systems were introduced in Stockholm in 2006, and in Gothenburg in 2013. The Stockholm system was significantly extended in 2016, and the peak charge has been increased in the two cities. This paper analyses the effects of the first decade with the Swedish congestion charges, specifically effects of the system updates, and draws policy lessons for the years to come. Should we introduce congestion charges in more cities? Should we extend the systems that we have? We synthesize previous research findings and focus on the long-term effects that have varied over time including the recent years: the price elasticities on the traffic volume across the cordon, the revenue and system operating cost, the public and political support, and consequences for the transport planning process. We also explore the effects on peak and off-peak, and different types of traffic (trucks, company cars and private passenger cars), because of access to novel data that make this analysis possible. We find that the price elasticities have increased over time in Stockholm, but decreased in Gothenburg. We find that the public support increased in the two cities after their introduction until the systems were revised; since then, the public support has declined in both cities. We find that the price elasticity was substantially lower when the charging levels were increased, and when the Stockholm system was extended, than when the charges were first introduced, a likely reason being that the most price-sensitive traffic was already priced off-the road at the introduction.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2018
Keywords
Congestion charges, Time-dependent cordon, Price elasticity, Traffic effects, Revenue, System operating costs, Public opinion, Political support
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-223293 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2017.11.001 (DOI)000423891600003 ()2-s2.0-85034234435 (Scopus ID)
Funder
VINNOVA
Note

QC 20180216

Available from: 2018-02-16 Created: 2018-02-16 Last updated: 2018-02-16Bibliographically approved
Kristoffersson, I., Engelson, L. & Börjesson, M. (2017). Efficiency vs equity: Conflicting objectives of congestion charges. Transport Policy, 60, 99-107
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Efficiency vs equity: Conflicting objectives of congestion charges
2017 (English)In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 60, p. 99-107Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper analyses the trade-off between equity and efficiency in the design of the Stockholm congestion charging systems. Comparing different designs for Stockholm, the paper shows that the most efficient system is the least equitable. Indeed, we show that moving towards a more efficient system design favours high-income-users most. The reason is the uneven distribution of workplaces and residential areas, combined with richer socio-economic groups living in areas with more workplaces. Hence, the conflict between efficiency and equity of this policy arises from the spatial mismatch of residential areas and locations of employment, and the spatial separation between low-income and high-income groups that characterise most cities. This paper shows that these spatial patterns have a large effect on the distribution effects of the congestion charges and that the system design can have a major impact on equity.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2017
Keywords
Congestion charging, Efficiency, Equity, Welfare effects
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-218308 (URN)10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.09.006 (DOI)000418970300010 ()2-s2.0-85033704828 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Transport AdministrationVINNOVA
Note

QC 20171127

Available from: 2017-11-27 Created: 2017-11-27 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Börjesson, M., Fung, C. M. & Proost, S. (2017). Optimal prices and frequencies for buses in Stockholm. Economics of Transportation, 9, 20-36
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Optimal prices and frequencies for buses in Stockholm
2017 (English)In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130, Vol. 9, p. 20-36Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Many public transport services are heavily subsidized. One of the main justifications is the expected beneficial effect on road congestion. Stockholm introduced congestion pricing in 2006 and the effects on car and public transport demand were carefully monitored. The change in prices provides unique estimates on price-and cross-price elasticities. This paper uses these data to model how the optimal pricing, frequency, bus size and number of bus lanes for a corridor depends on the presence of congestion pricing for cars. Results show that the presence of road pricing makes the current subsidies for peak bus trips too high. However, the major welfare benefits of re-optimizing the current bus supply stem from a decrease in frequencies during the off-peak period and the use of larger buses.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2017
Keywords
Public transport, Bus fares, Bus lanes, Bus frequency, Public transport subsidies, Congestion pricing
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Economics and Business
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-211622 (URN)10.1016/j.ecotra.2016.12.001 (DOI)000405721700002 ()2-s2.0-85009271410 (Scopus ID)
Funder
VINNOVA, 2014-03587
Note

QC 20170810

Available from: 2017-08-10 Created: 2017-08-10 Last updated: 2017-08-10Bibliographically approved
West, J., Börjesson, M. & Engelson, L. (2016). Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 94, 266-277
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges
2016 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 94, p. 266-277Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper explores the accuracy of the transport model forecast of the Gothenburg congestion charges, implemented in 2013. The design of the charging system implies that the path disutility cannot be computed as a sum of link attributes. The route choice model is therefore implemented as a hierarchical algorithm, applying a continuous value of travel time (VTT) distribution. The VTT distribution was estimated from stated choice (SC) data. However, based on experience of impact forecasting with a similar model and of impact outcome of congestion charges in Stockholm, the estimated VTT distribution had to be stretched to the right. We find that the forecast traffic reductions across the cordon and travel time gains were close to those observed in the peak. However, the reduction in traffic across the cordon was underpredicted off-peak. The necessity to make the adjustment indicates that the VTT inferred from SC data does not reveal the travellers’ preferences, or that there are factors determining route choice other than those included in the model: travel distance, travel time and congestion charge.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keywords
Congestion charges, Decision support, Transport model, Validation, Value of time, Volume delay function
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190863 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2016.09.016 (DOI)000389089700019 ()2-s2.0-84989328016 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20170201

Available from: 2016-08-17 Created: 2016-08-17 Last updated: 2017-11-28Bibliographically approved
Börjesson, M., Eliasson, J. & Kågesson, P. (2016). Ett gigantiskt projekt med oklart syfte: DN Debatt [Review]. Dagens nyheter (2016-01-04)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Ett gigantiskt projekt med oklart syfte: DN Debatt
2016 (Swedish)In: Dagens nyheter, ISSN 1101-2447, no 2016-01-04Article, book review (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.)) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
AB Dagens nyheter, 2016
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-183018 (URN)
Note

QC 20160226

Available from: 2016-02-24 Created: 2016-02-24 Last updated: 2016-12-02Bibliographically approved
Bastian, A., Börjesson, M. & Eliasson, J. (2016). Explaining “peak car” with economic variables. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2016(88), 236-250
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Explaining “peak car” with economic variables
2016 (Swedish)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 2016, no 88, p. 236-250Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Many western countries have seen a plateau and subsequent decrease of car travel during the 21st century. What has generated particular interest and debate is the statement that the development cannot be explained by changes in traditional explanatory factors such as GDP and fuel prices. Instead, it has been argued, the observed trends are indications of substantial changes in lifestyles, preferences and attitudes to car travel; what we are experiencing is not just a temporary plateau, but a true “peak car”. However, this study shows that the traditional variables GDP and fuel price are in fact sufficient to explain the observed trends in car traffic in all the countries included in our study: the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Sweden and (to a large extent) Australia and Germany. We argue that the importance of the fuel price increases in the early 2000s has been underappreciated in the studies that shaped the later debate. Results also indicate that GDP elasticities tend to decrease with rising GDP, and that fuel price elasticities tend to increase at high price levels and during periods of rapid price increases.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keywords
Peak car, Fuel price elasticity, GDP elasticity, Travel demand
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-188946 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2016.04.005 (DOI)000379359800017 ()2-s2.0-84964992773 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20160628

Available from: 2016-06-22 Created: 2016-06-22 Last updated: 2017-11-28Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0001-9235-0232

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