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Jürgensen, Jan HenningORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-3543-9326
Publications (10 of 20) Show all publications
Jürgensen, J. H., Nordström, L. & Hilber, P. (2019). Estimation of Individual Failure Rates for Power System Components Based on Risk Functions. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, 34(4), 1599-1607
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimation of Individual Failure Rates for Power System Components Based on Risk Functions
2019 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, ISSN 0885-8977, E-ISSN 1937-4208, Vol. 34, no 4, p. 1599-1607Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The failure rate is essential in power system reliability assessment and thus far, it has been commonly assumed as constant. This is a basic approach that delivers reasonable results. However, this approach neglects the heterogeneity in component populations, which has a negative impact on the accuracy of the failure rate. This paper proposes a method based on risk functions, which describes the risk behavior of condition measurements over time, to compute individual failure rates within populations. The method is applied to a population of 12 power transformers on transmission level. The computed individual failure rates depict the impact of maintenance and that power transformers with long operation times have a higher failure rate. Moreover, this paper presents a procedure based on the proposed approach to forecast failure rates. Finally, the individual failure rates are calculated over a specified prediction horizon and depicted with a 95% confidence interval.

Keywords
failure analysis; maintenance engineering; power system reliability; power transformers; reliability theory; higher failure rate; power system components; risk functions; power system reliability assessment;power transformers;individual failure rates estimation;transmission level;Sociology;Statistics;Maintenance engineering;Power transformers;Reliability;Power system reliability;Asset management; condition monitoring; failure rate; failure rate modeling; power transformer diagnostics
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-255877 (URN)10.1109/TPWRD.2019.2913777 (DOI)000477724800042 ()2-s2.0-85069930869 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20190820

Available from: 2019-08-14 Created: 2019-08-14 Last updated: 2022-06-26Bibliographically approved
Mashad Nemati, H., Pinheiro Sant'Anna, A., Nowaczyk, S., Jürgensen, J. H. & Hilber, P. (2019). Reliability Evaluation of Power Cables Considering the Restoration Characteristic. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 105, 622-631
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Reliability Evaluation of Power Cables Considering the Restoration Characteristic
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2019 (English)In: International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, ISSN 0142-0615, E-ISSN 1879-3517, Vol. 105, p. 622-631Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper Weibull parametric proportional hazard model (PHM) is used to estimate the failure rate of every individual cable based on its age and a set of explanatory factors. The required information for the proposed method is obtained by exploiting available historical cable inventory and failure data. This data-driven method does not require any additional measurements on the cables, and allows the cables to be ranked for maintenance prioritization and repair actions.

Furthermore, the results of reliability analysis of power cables are compared when the cables are considered as repairable or non-repairable components. The paper demonstrates that the methods which estimate the time-to-the-first failure (for non-repairable components) lead to incorrect conclusions about reliability of repairable power cables.

The proposed method is used to evaluate the failure rate of each individual Paper Insulated Lead Cover (PILC) underground cables in a distribution grid in the south of Sweden.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London: Elsevier, 2019
Keywords
Power cable, historical data, reliability, proportional hazard model, preventive maintenance
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-238643 (URN)10.1016/j.ijepes.2018.08.047 (DOI)000449447200055 ()2-s2.0-85053080255 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20181109

Available from: 2018-11-06 Created: 2018-11-06 Last updated: 2024-01-17Bibliographically approved
Jürgensen, J. H., Nordström, L., Hilber, P., Brodersson, A. L. & Andreasson, E. (2018). Assessment of Explanatory Variables on the Failure Rate of Circuit Breakers Using the Proportional Hazard Model. In: 2018 POWER SYSTEMS COMPUTATION CONFERENCE (PSCC): . Paper presented at 20th Power Systems Computation Conference, PSCC 2018; University College Dublin Dublin; Ireland; 11 June 2018 through 15 June 2018. Dublin, Ireland: IEEE conference proceedings, Article ID 8442567.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Assessment of Explanatory Variables on the Failure Rate of Circuit Breakers Using the Proportional Hazard Model
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2018 (English)In: 2018 POWER SYSTEMS COMPUTATION CONFERENCE (PSCC), Dublin, Ireland: IEEE conference proceedings, 2018, article id 8442567Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper utilises the proportional hazard model to understand and quantify the impact of explanatory variables on the failure rate of circuit breakers (CB). Particularly, 4496 work orders with 2622 high voltage CBs are investigated with an occurrence of 281 major failures. Different explanatory variables such as CB type, manufacturer, preventive maintenance (PM), and others are gathered to quantify their significance and magnitude of their effect. The results present that PM has a positive impact, the number of operations within the last year a negative impact, and age has a small but negative impact on the failure rate. The CB type is not significant in all analyses which can be explained by examining the PM and age of these CB types. This paper contributes to the understanding of how explantatory variables impact the failure rate which is essential for power system asset management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Dublin, Ireland: IEEE conference proceedings, 2018
Keywords
Asset management, circuit breaker reliability, failure rate, preventive maintenance, proportional hazard model
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-235079 (URN)10.23919/PSCC.2018.8442567 (DOI)000447282400052 ()2-s2.0-85053160170 (Scopus ID)9781910963104 (ISBN)
Conference
20th Power Systems Computation Conference, PSCC 2018; University College Dublin Dublin; Ireland; 11 June 2018 through 15 June 2018
Note

QC 20180921

Available from: 2018-09-14 Created: 2018-09-14 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved
Jürgensen, J. H., Nordström, L. & Hilber, P. (2018). Estimation of Individual Failure Rates for Power System Components based on Risk Functions.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimation of Individual Failure Rates for Power System Components based on Risk Functions
2018 (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The failure rate is essential in power system reliability assessment and thus far it has been commonly assumed as constant. This is a basic approach that delivers reasonable results. However, this approach neglects the heterogeneity in component populations which has a negative impact on the accuracy of the failure rate. This paper proposes a method based on risk functions, which describes the risk behaviour of condition measurements over time, to compute individual failure rates within populations. The method is applied to a population of 12 power transformers on transmission level. The computed individual failure rates depict the impact of maintenance and that power transformers with long operation times have a higher failure rate. Moreover, the paper presents a procedure based on the proposed approach to forecast failure rates. Finally, the individual failure rates are calculated over a specified prediction horizon and depicted with a 95\% confidence interval.

Keywords
Asset management, condition monitoring, failure rate, failure rate modeling, power transformer diagnostics
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-235518 (URN)
Note

QC 20180928

Available from: 2018-09-27 Created: 2018-09-27 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved
Jürgensen, J. H., Brodersson, A. L., Nordström, L. & Hilber, P. (2018). Impact Assessment of Remote Control and Preventive Maintenance on the Failure Rate of a Disconnector Population. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, 33(4), 1501-1509
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Impact Assessment of Remote Control and Preventive Maintenance on the Failure Rate of a Disconnector Population
2018 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, ISSN 0885-8977, E-ISSN 1937-4208, Vol. 33, no 4, p. 1501-1509Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents the impact of different explanatory variables such as remote control availability and conducted preventive maintenance, among others, on failure statistics of a disconnector population in Sweden using the proportional hazard model. To do so, 2191 work orders were analysed which included 1626 disconnectors and 278 major failures. Here, the results show that the remote control availability for disconnectors - an example of such Smart Grid technology - has a negative effect on the failure rate, whereas preventive maintenance has a positive impact. It is also shown that the disconnector age is not significant and that certain disconnector types have a significant and positive correlation towards failures when compared to other disconnector types. The results increase the understanding of disconnector failures to improve asset management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2018
Keywords
Asset management, control equipment reliability, monitoring, diagnostic measures, failure rate, failure rate estimation, preventive maintenance
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-216785 (URN)10.1109/TPWRD.2017.2710482 (DOI)000431959600001 ()2-s2.0-85046947535 (Scopus ID)
Funder
SweGRIDS - Swedish Centre for Smart Grids and Energy Storage
Note

QC 20171102

Available from: 2017-10-24 Created: 2017-10-24 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved
Jürgensen, J. H., Nordström, L., Hilber, P., Brodersson, A. L., Andreasson, E. & Goel, L. (2018). Modelling of Recurrent Circuit Breaker Failures with Regression Models for Count Data. In: : . Paper presented at 2018 IEEE International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling of Recurrent Circuit Breaker Failures with Regression Models for Count Data
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2018 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

High voltage circuit breaker (CB) are of fundamental importance to protect and operate the power system. To improve their performance and to better predict failures, it is necessary to understand the effect of covariates such as preventive maintenance, age, voltage level, and the CB type. A straightforward approach is to investigate recurrent failures with regression models for count data. In this paper, several regression models are developed to estimate the impact of the aforementioned covariates to predict the recurrence of failures. The results show that age has a significant and negative impact, preventive maintenance before the first failure has a positive impact, and that the voltage level has a negative impact. Moreover, the Poisson, Negative Binomial, and zero-inflated models are compared. The comparison shows that the Negative Binomial model has the best fit to the studied recurrent failure data.

Keywords
Asset management, circuit breaker reliability, rate of occurrence of failures, Poisson regression, preventive maintenance
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-235206 (URN)10.1109/PMAPS.2018.8440209 (DOI)000451295600008 ()2-s2.0-85053136177 (Scopus ID)
Conference
2018 IEEE International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
Note

QC 20180921

Available from: 2018-09-18 Created: 2018-09-18 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved
Jürgensen, J. H., Scheutz Godin, A. & Hilber, P. (2017). Health index as condition estimator for power system equipment: A critical discussion and case study. In: CIRED - Congrès International des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution, 2017.: . Paper presented at 24th International Conference on Electricity Distribution - CIRED Glasgow, 12-15 June 2017 (pp. 202-205). Institution of Engineering and Technology, 2017, Article ID 1.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Health index as condition estimator for power system equipment: A critical discussion and case study
2017 (English)In: CIRED - Congrès International des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution, 2017., Institution of Engineering and Technology, 2017, Vol. 2017, p. 202-205, article id 1Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Over the past decade, the health index has become an increasingly popular asset management tool in utilities. The health index as a condition indicator can improve the decision making process. However, it also has challenges which need to be considered during development and implementation. This paper addresses the advantages and disadvantages of the health index as a condition indicator in a critical discussion. Moreover, a case study is presented where a health index is calculated for three transmission power transformers. The case study illustrates that age and the load factor included in the health index calculation lead to an immoderately high health index for the transformers T2 and T3. Thus, the paper ageing of the transformer windings are used instead which results in a plausible condition representation of all three transformers. The case study also demonstrates that the observation of condition trends over time is lost if the health index is transformed into a linguistic expression.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institution of Engineering and Technology, 2017
Series
CIRED - Open Access Proceedings Journal, ISSN 2515-0855 ; 2017
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-210905 (URN)10.1049/oap-cired.2017.1174 (DOI)2-s2.0-85138728431 (Scopus ID)
Conference
24th International Conference on Electricity Distribution - CIRED Glasgow, 12-15 June 2017
Note

QC 20170811

Available from: 2017-07-07 Created: 2017-07-07 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved
Sadik, D.-P., Colmenares, J., Jürgensen, J.-H., Nee, H.-P., Giezendanner, F. & Ranstad, P. (2017). Introduction of SiC MOSFETs in Converters based on Si IGBTs: A Reliability and Efficiency Analysis. In: 2017 IEEE 3rd International Future Energy Electronics Conference and ECCE Asia, IFEEC - ECCE Asia 2017: . Paper presented at 3rd IEEE International Future Energy Electronics Conference and ECCE Asia, IFEEC - ECCE Asia 2017, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, 3 June 2017 through 7 June 2017 (pp. 1680-1685). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), Article ID 7992300.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Introduction of SiC MOSFETs in Converters based on Si IGBTs: A Reliability and Efficiency Analysis
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2017 (English)In: 2017 IEEE 3rd International Future Energy Electronics Conference and ECCE Asia, IFEEC - ECCE Asia 2017, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2017, p. 1680-1685, article id 7992300Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Silicon Carbide (SiC) Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistors (MOSFETs) have the potential to increase the power density in power electronics converters compared to the currently used silicon (Si). Their benefits are higher efficiency, higher switching speeds, and higher operating temperatures. Moreover, SiC MOSFETs, which are normally-off, offer the possibility to directly replace Si Isolated-Gate-BipolarTransistors (IGBTs) in already existing converter designs with minimal circuit changes. Nevertheless, as an emerging technology, the reliability performance remains to be investigated. A reliability analysis has been performed based on a full-bridge resonant converter rated at 60 kW for modern Electrostatic Precipitator (ESP) power supplies. This analysis shows that introducing SiC devices will increase the lifetime of the converter while reducing the losses. The investment costs of replacing the Si IGBTs with SiC MOSFETs can thus be covered with the reduction of the losses over the economical operational lifetime. Furthermore, a theoretical analysis on how introducing SiC MOSFETs could increase the power density of the converter while maintaining the efficiency and the reliability. Finally, an analysis on introducing redundancy as a way to improve the reliability of the system has been performed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2017
Keywords
Silicon Carbide (SiC), Reliability, MOSFETs, IGBTs, Multichip Module, Reliability Engineering
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-207751 (URN)10.1109/IFEEC.2017.7992300 (DOI)000426696300299 ()2-s2.0-85034031177 (Scopus ID)9781509051571 (ISBN)
Conference
3rd IEEE International Future Energy Electronics Conference and ECCE Asia, IFEEC - ECCE Asia 2017, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, 3 June 2017 through 7 June 2017
Note

QC 20170530

Available from: 2017-05-23 Created: 2017-05-23 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved
Jürgensen, J. H., Brodersson, A. L., Hilber, P. & Nordström, L. (2017). The Proportional Hazard Model and the Modelling of Recurrent Failure Data: Analysis of a Disconnector Population in Sweden. In: 2017 Cigré SC B3 (Substations) Colloquium, 18 - 20 September 2017, Recife, Brazil: . Paper presented at 2017 Cigré SC B3 (Substations) Colloquium, 18 - 20 September 2017, Recife, Brazil (pp. 1-8).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Proportional Hazard Model and the Modelling of Recurrent Failure Data: Analysis of a Disconnector Population in Sweden
2017 (English)In: 2017 Cigré SC B3 (Substations) Colloquium, 18 - 20 September 2017, Recife, Brazil, 2017, p. 1-8Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Failure rate estimation is an important tool for planning and operating decision making in asset management of the power system. Moreover, the knowledge of how different explanatory variables impact the failure rate of the power system equipment is crucial for substation design. This study investigates 2191 work orders of 1626 non-current breaking disconnectors with 344 major failures. In particular, this paper analyses the disconnector failure data regarding recurrent failure data. Since the original PHM cannot handle recurrent event data, different extensions were developed such as the Andersen-Gill (AG), Prentice, Williams and Peterson (PWP), and the Wei, Lin, and Weissfeld (WLW) model. These models are applied to the disconnector dataset with 140 recurrent time-to-failure processes. The explanatory variables age at admission, remote control, preventive maintenance, and voltage level are assessed. The results show that preventive maintenance has a significant and positive impact on the recurrences with all tested methods. Also remote control, voltage level, and age are significant covariates. Compared to the single failure study previously conducted, where age had no significance, age is significant when assessing the recurrent failure which is the most critical difference to the analysis without recurrences.

Keywords
Asset management, control equipment reliability, monitoring, failure rate, failure rate estimation, preventive maintenance, recurrent event analysis
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-218015 (URN)
Conference
2017 Cigré SC B3 (Substations) Colloquium, 18 - 20 September 2017, Recife, Brazil
Note

QC 20180111

Available from: 2017-11-21 Created: 2017-11-21 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved
Jürgensen, J. H., Nordström, L. & Hilber, P. (2016). A Review and Discussion of Failure Rate Heterogeneity in Power System Reliability Assessment. Paper presented at Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2016 International Conference on, Beijing.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Review and Discussion of Failure Rate Heterogeneity in Power System Reliability Assessment
2016 (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The failure rate is a reliability measure which isused for planning and operation of the power system. Thus far, average or experience based failure rates were applied to power system equipment due to their straightforward implementation. However, this approach limits the accuracy of the gained resultsand neglects the important differentiation between populationand individual failure rates. Hence, this paper discusses and demonstrates the necessity to distinguish between populationand individual failure rates and reviews the existing literature offailure rate estimation within the power system domain. The literature is categorized into statistical data driven approaches and failure rate modelling with focus on different criteria whichcan be used to describe the heterogeneity within populations. The review reveals that the environmental impact was modelled predominantly.

Keywords
failure rate modelling; heterogeneity; individual failure rate; relative risk model
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-194408 (URN)978-1-5090-1970-0 (ISBN)
Conference
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2016 International Conference on, Beijing
Note

QC 20161026

Available from: 2016-10-26 Created: 2016-10-26 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved
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ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-3543-9326

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