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West, J. & Cats, O. (2017). Individual and Synergetic Effects of Transit Service Improvement Strategies: Simulation and Validation. Journal of transportation engineering, 143(6), Article ID 04017061.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Individual and Synergetic Effects of Transit Service Improvement Strategies: Simulation and Validation
2017 (English)In: Journal of transportation engineering, ISSN 0733-947X, E-ISSN 1943-5436, Vol. 143, no 6, article id 04017061Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Assessment of transit service improvements such as bus lanes, allowing boarding through all doors, and headway-based holding control requires detailed simulation capabilities. However, because the usage of models advanced enough to simultaneously analyze physical and operational measures has been limited, their validity has hitherto remained low. This paper assesses the implementation of several bus service improvement measures in a simulation model. The paper analyzes the effect of isolated and combinations of measures, and validates the model using field experiment data. The model predicted travel time improvements accurately (1–2% difference), while overestimating some of the headway variability effects. The three tested measures exercised negative synergy effects, with their combined effect being smaller than the sum of their marginal contributions, except for headway-based holding, which exercised positive synergy effects with the two other measures.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2017
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-168295 (URN)10.1061/JTEPBS.0000095 (DOI)000417336200004 ()
Funder
Stockholm County Council
Note

QC 20150601

Available from: 2015-06-01 Created: 2015-06-01 Last updated: 2018-01-03Bibliographically approved
Cats, O., West, J. & Eliasson, J. (2016). A dynamic stochastic model for evaluating congestion and crowding effects in transit systems. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 89, 43-57
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A dynamic stochastic model for evaluating congestion and crowding effects in transit systems
2016 (English)In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 89, p. 43-57Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

One of the most common motivations for public transport investments is to reduce congestion and increase capacity. Public transport congestion leads to crowding discomfort, denied boardings and lower service reliability. However, transit assignment models and appraisal methodologies usually do not account for the dynamics of public transport congestion and crowding and thus potentially underestimate the related benefits. This study develops a method to capture the benefits of increased capacity by using a dynamic and stochastic transit assignment model. Using an agent-based public transport simulation model, we dynamically model the evolution of network reliability and on-board crowding. The model is embedded in a comprehensive framework for project appraisal.A case study of a metro extension that partially replaces an overloaded bus network in Stockholm demonstrates that congestion effects may account for a substantial share of the expected benefits. A cost-benefit analysis based on a conventional static model will miss more than a third of the benefits. This suggests that failure to represent dynamic congestion effects may substantially underestimate the benefits of projects, especially if they are primarily intended to increase capacity rather than to reduce travel times.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keywords
Agent-based simulation, Capacity, Cost-benefit analysis, Dynamic congestion, Transit assignment, Cost benefit analysis, Cost effectiveness, Mass transportation, Stochastic systems, Travel time, Agent based simulation, Crowding effects, Network reliability, Public transport, Service reliability, Transit systems, Stochastic models
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-186912 (URN)10.1016/j.trb.2016.04.001 (DOI)000379281900003 ()2-s2.0-84963517880 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20160516

Available from: 2016-05-16 Created: 2016-05-16 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
West, J., Börjesson, M. & Engelson, L. (2016). Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 94, 266-277
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges
2016 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 94, p. 266-277Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper explores the accuracy of the transport model forecast of the Gothenburg congestion charges, implemented in 2013. The design of the charging system implies that the path disutility cannot be computed as a sum of link attributes. The route choice model is therefore implemented as a hierarchical algorithm, applying a continuous value of travel time (VTT) distribution. The VTT distribution was estimated from stated choice (SC) data. However, based on experience of impact forecasting with a similar model and of impact outcome of congestion charges in Stockholm, the estimated VTT distribution had to be stretched to the right. We find that the forecast traffic reductions across the cordon and travel time gains were close to those observed in the peak. However, the reduction in traffic across the cordon was underpredicted off-peak. The necessity to make the adjustment indicates that the VTT inferred from SC data does not reveal the travellers’ preferences, or that there are factors determining route choice other than those included in the model: travel distance, travel time and congestion charge.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keywords
Congestion charges, Decision support, Transport model, Validation, Value of time, Volume delay function
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190863 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2016.09.016 (DOI)000389089700019 ()2-s2.0-84989328016 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20170201

Available from: 2016-08-17 Created: 2016-08-17 Last updated: 2017-11-28Bibliographically approved
West, J. (2016). Modelling and Appraisal in Congested Transport Networks. (Doctoral dissertation). Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling and Appraisal in Congested Transport Networks
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Appraisal methodologies for congestion mitigation projects are relatively less well developed compared to methodologies for projects reducing free flow travel times. For instance, static assignment models are incapable of representing the build-up and dissipation of traffic queues, or capturing the experienced crowding caused by uneven on-board passenger loads. Despite the availability of dynamic traffic assignment, only few model systems have been developed for cost-benefit analysis of real applications. The six included papers present approaches and tools for analysing traffic and transit projects where congestion relief is the main target.

In the transit case studies, we use an agent-based simulation model to analyse congestion and crowding effects and to conduct cost-benefit analyses. In the case study of a metro extension in Stockholm, we demonstrate that congestion and crowding effects constitute more than a third of the total benefits and that a conventional static model underestimates these effects vastly. In another case study, we analyse various operational measures and find that the three main measures (boarding through all doors, headway-based holding and bus lanes) had an overall positive impact on service performance and that synergetic effects exist.

For the congestion charging system in Gothenburg, we demonstrate that a hierarchal route choice model with a continuous value of time distribution gives realistic predictions of route choice effects although the assignment is static. We use the model to show that the net social benefit of the charging system in Gothenburg is positive, but that low income groups pay a larger share of their income than high income groups. To analyse congestion charges in Stockholm however, integration of dynamic traffic assignment with the demand model is necessary, and we demonstrate that this is fully possible.

Models able to correctly predict these effects highlight the surprisingly large travel time savings of pricing policies and small operational measures. These measures are cheap compared to investments in new infrastructure and their implementation can therefore lead to large societal gains.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2016
Series
TRITA-TSC-PHD ; 16:007
Keywords
Transport modelling, Transit Assignment, Appraisal, Congestion, Crowding, Cost-benefit analysis, Value of time, Congestion charge, Dynamic traffic assignment
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190866 (URN)978-91-87353-92-5 (ISBN)
External cooperation:
Public defence
2016-09-30, L1, KTH, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20160829

Available from: 2016-08-29 Created: 2016-08-17 Last updated: 2016-08-30Bibliographically approved
West, J. (2015). Congestion Effects in Transport Modelling and Forecasting. (Licentiate dissertation). Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Congestion Effects in Transport Modelling and Forecasting
2015 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Transport investments and policies are increasingly turned towards dealing with transport congestion rather than with shortening the potential free flow travel time. However, appraisal methodologies for projects meant to reduce congestion are relatively less well developed compared to methodologies for projects aiming to reduce travel times. Static assignment models are for instance incapable of predicting the build-up and dissipation of traffic queues and capturing the experienced crowding caused by uneven on-board passenger loads. Despite of the availability of dynamic traffic assignment and despite of fairly concrete ideas of how integration with demand models could take place, only few model systems have been developed for real applications.

The predicted reduction of traffic volume across the Gothenburg congestion charge cordon in the peak, 11%, turned out to be an accurate estimate of the observed reduction, 12%. The reduction in the off-peak, however, was overpredicted, as it was also in the Stockholm case. To analyse congestion charges in Stockholm it is necessary and fully possible to integrate DTA with the demand model. In the performed tests it could be seen that both tested models had problems replicating the flow on the main bypass early in the morning but otherwise performed well. A case study of a metro extension in Stockholm demonstrated that congestion effects constitute more than half of the total benefits and that these effects are excessively underestimated by a conventional static model. Effects of various operational measures can be analysed with BusMezzo and the results have been validated against observed data. The findings indicate that all three tested measures in a case study (boarding through all doors, headway-based holding and bus lanes) had an overall positive impact on service performance and that there are synergetic effects.

Using a continuous VTT distribution and hierarchical route choice was demonstrated as a successful method of modelling the multi-passage rule implemented in Gothenburg congestion charges and was shown to give realistic predictions of route choice effects. First results from integration of DTA with a travel demand model for the Stockholm region show that even without systematic calibration the DTA is in reasonable agreement with observed traffic counts and travel times. The presented experiments did not reveal a striking difference between using a macroscopic and a microscopic assignment package. While travel time savings are often the only benefit included in public transport project appraisals, the best practice assigns weighted value of time to average load/capacity measures. However, failure to represent dynamic congestion effects may lead to substantial underestimation of the benefits of projects primarily designed to increase capacity rather than reduce travel times. The impact of small operational measures should not be underestimated. These measures are relatively cheap compared to investments in new transit infrastructure and large societal gains can therefore be achieved by their implementation.

Abstract [sv]

Investeringar och åtgärdsprogram inom transportområdet handlar allt oftare om att råda bot på trängsel snarare än att minska potentiella friflödesrestider. Utvärderingsmetoder för projekt som syftar till att minska trängsel är dock mindre utvecklade än metoder för projekt som syftar till att minska restider. Statiska nätutläggningsmodeller är till exempel inte lämpade för att prognosera uppbyggnad och avveckling av köer eller för att fånga upplevd trängsel orsakad av ojämn belastning på kollektivtrafikfordon. Trots förekomsten av dynamisk trafikutläggning och trots tämligen konkret kunskap om hur integration med efterfrågemodeller kunde gå till, finns det endast ett fåtal modellsystem utvecklade för verklig tillämpning.

Den predikterade trafikflödesminskningen på 11 % över trängselskattesnittet i Göteborg visade sig stämma väl överens med den observerade minskningen på 12 %. Minskningen under lågtrafik visade sig dock vara överskattad, precis som i Stockholmsfallet. För att analysera trängseleffekter i Stockholm är det nödvändigt och fullt möjligt att integrera en DTA-modell med efterfrågemodellen. I de utförda testerna observerades att båda de testade modellerna hade problem med att återskapa korrekta flöden på Essingeleden under morgonens maxtimme, men i övrigt gav god överensstämmelse. I en fallstudie av blå tunnelbanelinjes förlängning i Stockholm visade det sig att trängseleffekter utgjorde mer än hälften av de totala nyttorna och att dessa effekter är kraftigt underskattade i en konventionell statisk modell. Effekter av olika operationella åtgärder kan analyseras med BusMezzo och resultaten har blivit validerade mot observerade data. Resultaten tyder på att alla tre testade åtgärder i en fallstudie (ombordstigning i alla dörrar, turtäthetsbaserad reglering och busskörfält) hade en positiv inverkan på servicenivån och att det förekommer synergieffekter dem emellan.

Användandet av kontinuerlig tidsvärdesfördelning och hierarkiskt ruttval har framgångsrikt demonstrerats som en metod för att modellera flerpassageregeln i Göteborgs trängselskattesystem och visade sig ge realistiska prediktioner av ruttvalseffekter. De första resultaten från integrationen DTA i efterfrågemodellen för Stockholmsregionen visar att även utan systematisk kalibrering är modellresultaten i paritet med observerad trafikflöden och restider. Experimentresultaten tyder inte på någon slående skillnad mellan att använda makroskopisk eller mikroskopisk nätutläggning. Restidsvinst är ofta är den enda nyttan som ingår i nyttokalkylen för kollektivtrafikinvesteringar, men i visa fall är det befogat att använda viktade tidsvärden beroende på förhållandet belastning / kapacitet. Att inte modellera dynamiska trängseleffekter kan dock leda till påtagbar underskattning av nyttorna i projekt som primärt handlar om kapacitetshöjning snarare än restidsförkortning. Nyttan av små operationella åtgärder ska inte underskattas. Dessa åtgärder är oftast relativt billiga jämfört med investeringar i ny transportinfrastruktur och stora sociala nyttor kan därför åstadkommas.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2015. p. 25
Series
TRITA-TSC-LIC, ISSN 1653-445X ; 15:003
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-167416 (URN)978-91-87353-73-4 (ISBN)
External cooperation:
Presentation
2015-06-08, Nash/Wardrop, L1, KTH, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20150601

Available from: 2015-06-01 Created: 2015-05-22 Last updated: 2016-08-25Bibliographically approved
Cats, O., West, J. & Eliasson, J. (2014). Appraisal of increased public transport capacity: The case of a new metro line to Nacka, Sweden. Paper presented at hEART Conference 2014 in Leeds, UK.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Appraisal of increased public transport capacity: The case of a new metro line to Nacka, Sweden
2014 (English)Report (Other academic)
Series
CTS working paper ; 2015:2
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-168293 (URN)
Conference
hEART Conference 2014 in Leeds, UK
Note

QC 20150601

Available from: 2015-06-01 Created: 2015-06-01 Last updated: 2016-08-18Bibliographically approved
West, J., Börjesson, M. & Engelsson, L. (2014). Ex-post evaluation of national transport model: Gothenburg congestion charges application.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Ex-post evaluation of national transport model: Gothenburg congestion charges application
2014 (English)Report (Other academic)
Alternative title[en]
Forecasting effects of congestion charges
Series
CTS working paper ; 2016:9
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-168291 (URN)
Note

QC 20150601

Available from: 2015-06-01 Created: 2015-06-01 Last updated: 2016-08-18Bibliographically approved
Almroth, A., Berglund, S., Engelsson, L., Canella, O., Flötteröd, G., Jonsson, D., . . . West, J. (2014). Further development of SAMPERS and modeling of urban congestion.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Further development of SAMPERS and modeling of urban congestion
Show others...
2014 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The need to more precisely represent the consequences of congestion mitigation policies in urban transport systems calls for replacement of the static equilibrium assignment by DTA in the integrated travel demand and traffic assignment models. Despite of the availability of DTA models and despite of the conceptual clarity of how such integration should take place, only few operational model systems have been developed for large-scale applications. We report on replacement of the static traffic assignment by two different DTAs in the four stage demand model for the Greater Stockholm region: the macroscopic analytic Visum DUE and microscopic simulation Transmodeler. First results show that even without systematic calibration the DTA is in reasonable agreement with observed traffic counts and travel times. The presented experiments did not reveal striking difference between using macroscopic and microscopic assignment package. However, given the clear trend to microscopic modeling and simulation on the travel demand side, the use of micro-simulation-based DTA package appears more natural from system integration perspective.

Publisher
p. 112
Series
Working papers in Transport Economics ; No 2014:10
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-165954 (URN)
Note

QC 20150512

Available from: 2015-04-30 Created: 2015-04-30 Last updated: 2015-05-12Bibliographically approved
Berglund, S., Canella, O., Engelsson, L., Flötteröd, G., Jonsson, D., Kristoffersson, I. & West, J. (2014). Integration of dynamic traffic assignment with a travel demand model for the Stockholm region. In: : . Paper presented at DTA 2014 conference in Salerno, Italy.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Integration of dynamic traffic assignment with a travel demand model for the Stockholm region
Show others...
2014 (English)Conference paper, Oral presentation only (Other academic)
Publisher
p. 112
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-168292 (URN)
Conference
DTA 2014 conference in Salerno, Italy
Note

QC 20150601

Available from: 2015-06-01 Created: 2015-06-01 Last updated: 2016-08-25Bibliographically approved
West, J. & Cats, O.Modelling transit user adaptation and learning.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling transit user adaptation and learning
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190862 (URN)
External cooperation:
Note

QC 20160829

Available from: 2016-08-17 Created: 2016-08-17 Last updated: 2016-08-29Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-3043-8145

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