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Herre, L., Matusevičius, T., Olauson, J. & Söder, L. (2019). Exploring Wind Power Prognosis Data on Nord Pool: The Case of Sweden and Denmark. IET Renewable Power Generation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring Wind Power Prognosis Data on Nord Pool: The Case of Sweden and Denmark
2019 (English)In: IET Renewable Power Generation, ISSN 1752-1416, E-ISSN 1752-1424, ISSN 1752-1416Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A good understanding of forecast errors is imperative for greater penetration of wind power, as it can facilitate planning and operation tasks. Oftentimes, public data is used for system studies without questioning or verifying its origin. In this paper, we propose a methodology to verify public data with the example of wind power prognosis published by Nord Pool. We focus on Swedish data and identify a significant bias that increases over the forecast horizon. In order to explore the origin of this bias, we first compare against Danish forecast and then describe the underlying structure behind the submission processes of this data. Based on the balance settlement structure, we reveal that Swedish "wind power prognoses" on Nord Pool are in fact rather wind production plans than technical forecasts. We conclude with the recommendation for improved communication and transparency with respect to terminology of public data on Nord Pool. We stress the importance for the research community to check publicly available input data before further use. Furthermore, the root-mean-square error and the spatio-temporal correlation between the errors in the bidding areas at different horizons is presented. Even with this compromised data, a stronger correlation is identified in neighbouring areas.

Keywords
wind power forecasts, forecast anaylsis, vindkraftspognoser, analys av vindkraftsprognoser
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Energy Systems
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-241639 (URN)10.1049/iet-rpg.2018.5086 (DOI)000462942900006 ()2-s2.0-85063728250 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20190124

Available from: 2019-01-24 Created: 2019-01-24 Last updated: 2019-04-29Bibliographically approved
Dimoulkas, I., Herre, L., Khastieva, D., Nycander, E., Amelin, M. & Mazidi, P. (2018). A hybrid model based on symbolic regression and neural networks for electricity load forecasting. In: International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM: . Paper presented at 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018; Lodz; Poland; 27 June 2018 through 29 June 2018. IEEE Computer Society, Article ID 8469901.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A hybrid model based on symbolic regression and neural networks for electricity load forecasting
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2018 (English)In: International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM, IEEE Computer Society, 2018, article id 8469901Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper proposes a hybrid model for electricity load forecasting. Symbolic regression is initially used to automatically create a regression model of the load. Then the explanatory variables and their transformations that have been selected in the model are used as input in an artificial neural network that is trained to predict the electricity load at the output. Therefore symbolic regression operates as a feature selection-creation method and forecasting is done by the artificial neural network. The proposed hybrid model has been successfully used in an electricity load forecasting competition.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE Computer Society, 2018
Keywords
Forecasting competition, Load forecasting, Neural networks, Symbolic regression, Commerce, Electric power plant loads, Forecasting, Power markets, Regression analysis, Electricity load, Electricity load forecasting, Explanatory variables, Hybrid model, Regression model, Electric load forecasting
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-247176 (URN)10.1109/EEM.2018.8469901 (DOI)2-s2.0-85055476841 (Scopus ID)9781538614884 (ISBN)
Conference
15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018; Lodz; Poland; 27 June 2018 through 29 June 2018
Note

QC 20190507

Available from: 2019-05-07 Created: 2019-05-07 Last updated: 2019-05-22Bibliographically approved
Herre, L., Söder, L. & Mathieu, J. L. (2018). The Flexibility of Thermostatically Controlled Loads as a Function of Price Notice Time. In: 2018 POWER SYSTEMS COMPUTATION CONFERENCE (PSCC): . Paper presented at Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC) 2018. Dublin: IEEE conference proceedings
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Flexibility of Thermostatically Controlled Loads as a Function of Price Notice Time
2018 (English)In: 2018 POWER SYSTEMS COMPUTATION CONFERENCE (PSCC), Dublin: IEEE conference proceedings, 2018Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Due to increased use of variable renewable energy sources, more capacity for balancing and ancillary services (AS) is required. Non-generating resources such as thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) can arbitrage energy prices and provide AS due to their thermal energy storage capacity. This paper explores the impact of energy/AS price notice time, i.e. the time between when the price is announced and when it takes effect, on the TCL energy consumption and AS capacity bids, and quantifies trade-offs between notice time and flexibility. We first optimize the energy consumption and AS capacity offers at a given notice time, varied from 24 hours ahead to real-time. We then introduce uncertainty in TCL availability, formulate the stochastic optimization problem, and evaluate how the trade-offs change. We find that price notice time impacts TCL profits, but does not significantly affect the total AS capacity offered over the day. However, AS capacity offers are impacted by uncertainty, which is likely to increase with notice time.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Dublin: IEEE conference proceedings, 2018
Keywords
ancillary services, demand response, electricity prices, notice time, thermostatically controlled loads
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-231946 (URN)000447282400092 ()2-s2.0-85054025579 (Scopus ID)
Conference
Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC) 2018
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 76178
Note

QC 20180717

Available from: 2018-07-05 Created: 2018-07-05 Last updated: 2019-04-23Bibliographically approved
Herre, L. & Söder, L. (2017). Enhancing market access of demand response through generation forecast updates. In: 2017 IEEE Manchester PowerTech, Powertech 2017: . Paper presented at 2017 IEEE Manchester PowerTech, Powertech 2017, Manchester, United Kingdom, 18 June 2017 through 22 June 2017. IEEE, Article ID 7981023.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Enhancing market access of demand response through generation forecast updates
2017 (English)In: 2017 IEEE Manchester PowerTech, Powertech 2017, IEEE, 2017, article id 7981023Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Advances in communication infrastructure and elec-tric appliances have enabled demand side participation in powersystem operation. However, the full potential of demand flexibilityis yet to be exploited. Existing demand response programs requireflexibility in a set time frame from the electricity consumers inreaction to economic incentives. For a more detailed qualitativeanalysis of consumer flexibility, not only price but also noticetime are imperative parameters. The former has been studied innumerous references whereas the impact of the latter has not yetbeen examined in depth. This paper presents a market modelof demand response that enhances an efficient use of flexibleconsumers by hourly updates. The consequences of flexibleelectricity consumers are studied in a Real Time Pricing modelwith continuous forecast updates, where elasticity is subject tonotice time. A case study is presented using data from Sweden.We conclude that current demand response programs are notoptimally designed to integrate consumer flexibility that changeswith the notice time. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2017
Keywords
demand side management, power system simulation, power system economics, smart grids, wind energy integration
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-209944 (URN)10.1109/PTC.2017.7981023 (DOI)000411142500234 ()2-s2.0-85034782630 (Scopus ID)978-1-5090-4237-1 (ISBN)
Conference
2017 IEEE Manchester PowerTech, Powertech 2017, Manchester, United Kingdom, 18 June 2017 through 22 June 2017
Note

QC 20170704

Available from: 2017-06-26 Created: 2017-06-26 Last updated: 2018-02-15Bibliographically approved
Herre, L., Wouters, P., Steennis, F. & de Graaff, R. (2016). On the electromagnetic coupling of AC and DC circuits on hybrid transmission towers. In: IEEE International Energy Conference (ENERGYCON): . Paper presented at IEEE International Energy Conference (ENERGYCON) (pp. 1-6). Leuven: IEEE
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On the electromagnetic coupling of AC and DC circuits on hybrid transmission towers
2016 (English)In: IEEE International Energy Conference (ENERGYCON), Leuven: IEEE , 2016, p. 1-6Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Transmission system limits, originating from right-of-way permission processes for new corridors, can be surpassed by erecting new circuits in close proximity, or even on common structures. Especially for long distance bulk power transfer, high voltage direct current technology promises superior features. Adding a circuit to a transmission corridor is one method of significantly increasing power transfer capability. Converting an existing AC circuit for DC operation is another method that additionally decreases investment in new lines and towers. Consequences of such application are various AC/DC interaction phenomena on either AC or DC lines for both steady and transient conditions. This paper presents a study on AC/DC transmission system interactions for a hybrid tower configuration. In normal operation DC voltage showed no significant fundamental AC frequency component, while induced transient overvoltages displayed notable levels.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Leuven: IEEE, 2016
Keywords
Computational modeling, Poles and towers, HVDC transmission, Circuit faults, Voltage control, Transient analysis
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-191152 (URN)10.1109/ENERGYCON.2016.7514143 (DOI)2-s2.0-84980491794 (Scopus ID)978-1-4673-8463-6 (ISBN)
External cooperation:
Conference
IEEE International Energy Conference (ENERGYCON)
Note

QC 20160829

Available from: 2016-08-24 Created: 2016-08-24 Last updated: 2016-08-29Bibliographically approved
Herre, L. & Söder, L. (2016). On the flexibility of electricity consumers: Introducing notice time. In: : . Paper presented at 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) (pp. 1-5). IEEE
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On the flexibility of electricity consumers: Introducing notice time
2016 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Power systems with a large share of inherently intermittent energy sources require new approaches to system operation. Demand side management is seen as one potential resource for maintaining power balance in a future energy system with large amounts of volatile renewable energy generation. Existing demand response programs require flexibility in a set time frame from the electricity consumers in reaction to economic incentives. For a more detailed qualitative analysis of consumer flexibility, not only price but also notice time are imperative parameters. Former has been studied in numerous references whereas the impact of the latter has not yet been examined in depth. This paper presents a review of existing demand response programs and reflects on consumers' flexibility with respect to notice time. While some schemes include fixed notification schedules, others allow for variable notice time, or even continuous updating. In this paper, the consequences of notice time and update intervals on flexible electricity consumers are studied in Demand Bidding model with continuous forecast updates.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2016
Keywords
power generation planning, power system economics, power system simulation, smart grids, wind energy integration
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Economics; Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190066 (URN)10.1109/EEM.2016.7521199 (DOI)000382910700023 ()2-s2.0-84983285002 (Scopus ID)
Conference
13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)
Projects
STandUP for Wind
Funder
StandUp for Wind
Note

QC 20160811

Available from: 2016-08-02 Created: 2016-08-02 Last updated: 2017-01-20Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-0685-0199

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