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Pinto de Moura, G. N., Loureiro Legey, L. F. & Howells, M. I. (2018). A Brazilian perspective of power systems integration using OSeMOSYS SAMBA - South America Model Base - and the bargaining power of neighbouring countries: A cooperative games approach. Energy Policy, 115, 470-485
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Brazilian perspective of power systems integration using OSeMOSYS SAMBA - South America Model Base - and the bargaining power of neighbouring countries: A cooperative games approach
2018 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 115, p. 470-485Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper intends to contribute to a better understanding of both advantages and drawbacks of power systems interconnection processes between Brazil and its South American neighbours. Based on data available in national and international reports, three scenarios for the power supply sector expansion were modelled in OSeMOSYS. The Brazilian perspective of power integration considers funding strategic hydro projects in Argentina, Bolivia, Guyana and Peru. An alternative to the power integration process considers higher penetration of distributed photovoltaics and biogas power plants as well as lower hydro capacity expansion in Brazil. Features related to costs, carbon emissions, hydro reservoirs, technological performance, electricity demand, population growth, time zones and reserve margin were considered. The comparison of different scenarios provides insights regarding the contribution of renewable energy generation and sheds light on cross-border trade perspectives between Brazil and other countries in South America. Using a cooperative games approach, the bargaining power of each country (player) was calculated by applying the Shapley value concept. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Peru and Guyana have the largest bargaining power, either as exporter or importer.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2018
Keywords
Power systems integration, OSeMOSYS SAMBA, Cross-border electricity trade, Cooperative games, Shapley value
National Category
Energy Systems Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-226197 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2018.01.045 (DOI)000428099800046 ()2-s2.0-85044622734 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20180518

Available from: 2018-05-18 Created: 2018-05-18 Last updated: 2018-05-18Bibliographically approved
Brouwer, F., Avgerinopoulos, G., Fazekas, D., Laspidou, C., Mercure, J.-F. -., Pollitt, H., . . . Howells, M. I. (2018). Energy modelling and the Nexus concept. Energy Strategy Reviews, 19, 1-6
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Energy modelling and the Nexus concept
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2018 (English)In: Energy Strategy Reviews, ISSN 2211-467X, E-ISSN 2211-4688, Vol. 19, p. 1-6Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Nexus concept is the interconnection between the resources energy, water, food, land and climate. Such interconnections enable to address trade-offs and seek for synergies among them. Several policy areas (e.g. bio-based economy, circular economy) increasingly consider the Nexus concept. Ignoring synergies and trade-offs between energy and natural flows, can generate misleading modelling outcomes. Several modelling tools are available to address energy and the Nexus. Based on six such models, this paper aims to support the design and testing of coherent strategies for sustainable development. Model improvements would be achieved by comparing model outcomes and including a common baseline.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2018
Keywords
Climate change, Energy modelling, Food, Nexus concept, Water
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-221160 (URN)10.1016/j.esr.2017.10.005 (DOI)000424913000001 ()2-s2.0-85040090567 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 689150 SIM4NEXUS
Note

QC 20180115

Available from: 2018-01-15 Created: 2018-01-15 Last updated: 2018-03-13Bibliographically approved
Gardumi, F., Shivakumar, A., Morrison, R., Taliotis, C., Broad, O., Beltramo, A., . . . Alfstad, T. (2018). From the development of an open-source energy modelling tool to its application and the creation of communities of practice: The example of OSeMOSYS. Energy Strategy Reviews, 20, 209-228
Open this publication in new window or tab >>From the development of an open-source energy modelling tool to its application and the creation of communities of practice: The example of OSeMOSYS
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2018 (English)In: Energy Strategy Reviews, ISSN 2211-467X, E-ISSN 2211-4688, Vol. 20, p. 209-228Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the last decades, energy modelling has supported energy planning by offering insights into the dynamics between energy access, resource use, and sustainable development. Especially in recent years, there has been an attempt to strengthen the science-policy interface and increase the involvement of society in energy planning processes. This has, both in the EU and worldwide, led to the development of open-source and transparent energy modelling practices. This paper describes the role of an open-source energy modelling tool in the energy planning process and highlights its importance for society. Specifically, it describes the existence and characteristics of the relationship between developing an open-source, freely available tool and its application, dissemination and use for policy making. Using the example of the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), this work focuses on practices that were established within the community and that made the framework's development and application both relevant and scientifically grounded.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2018
Keywords
Energy system modelling tool, Open-source software, Model-based public policy, Software development practice, Outreach practice
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-228285 (URN)10.1016/j.esr.2018.03.005 (DOI)000431253000020 ()
Note

QC 20180521

Available from: 2018-05-21 Created: 2018-05-21 Last updated: 2018-05-21Bibliographically approved
Engström, R. E., Howells, M. I., Destouni, G., Bhatt, V., Bazilian, M. & Rogner, H.-H. (2017). Connecting the resource nexus to basic urban service provision – with a focus on water-energy interactions in New York City. Sustainable cities and society, 31, 83-94
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Connecting the resource nexus to basic urban service provision – with a focus on water-energy interactions in New York City
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2017 (English)In: Sustainable cities and society, ISSN 2210-6707, Vol. 31, p. 83-94Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Urban water and energy systems are crucial for sustainably meeting basic service demands in cities. This paper proposes and applies a technology-independent “reference resource-to-service system” framework for concurrent evaluation of urban water and energy system interventions and their ‘nexus’ or ‘interlinkages’. In a concrete application, data that approximate New York City conditions are used to evaluate a limited set of interventions in the residential sector, spanning from low-flow toilet shifts to extensive green roof installations. Results indicate that interventions motivated primarily by water management goals can considerably reduce energy use and contribute to mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, energy efficiency interventions can considerably reduce water use in addition to lowering emissions. However, interventions yielding the greatest reductions in energy use and emissions are not necessarily the most water conserving ones, and vice versa. Useful further research, expanding the present analysis should consider a broader set of resource interactions, towards a full climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) nexus approach. Overall, assessing the impacts, trade-offs and co-benefits from interventions in one urban resource system on others also holds promise as support for increased resource efficiency through integrated decision making.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2017
Keywords
Integrated resource assessment, Multi-resource impacts, New York City, Urban service provision, Urban sustainability, Water-energy nexus, Decision making, Economic and social effects, Energy efficiency, Energy utilization, Gas emissions, Greenhouse gases, Water management, Integrated resources, Multi-resource, Urban services, Water energy, Water resources
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-207336 (URN)10.1016/j.scs.2017.02.007 (DOI)000406307300008 ()2-s2.0-85014923125 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20170607

Available from: 2017-06-07 Created: 2017-06-07 Last updated: 2017-09-12Bibliographically approved
Moksnes, N., Korkovelos, A., Mentis, D. & Howells, M. I. (2017). Electrification pathways for Kenya-linking spatial electrification analysis and medium to long term energy planning. Environmental Research Letters, 12(9), Article ID 095008.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Electrification pathways for Kenya-linking spatial electrification analysis and medium to long term energy planning
2017 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, no 9, article id 095008Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In September 2015 UN announced 17 Sustainable Development goals (SDG) from which goal number 7 envisions universal access to modern energy services for all by 2030. In Kenya only about 46% of the population currently has access to electricity. This paper analyses hypothetical scenarios, and selected implications, investigating pathways that would allow the country to reach its electrification targets by 2030. Two modelling tools were used for the purposes of this study, namely OnSSET and OSeMOSYS. The tools were soft-linked in order to capture both the spatial and temporal dynamics of their nature. Two electricity demand scenarios were developed representing low and high end user consumption goals respectively. Indicatively, results show that geothermal, coal, hydro and natural gas would consist the optimal energy mix for the centralized national grid. However, in the case of the low demand scenario a high penetration of stand-alone systems is evident in the country, reaching out to approximately 47% of the electrified population. Increasing end user consumption leads to a shift in the optimal technology mix, with higher penetration of mini-grid technologies and grid extension.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP), 2017
Keywords
Kenya, OSeMOSYS, optimization, OnSSET, off-grid, SDG
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-214882 (URN)10.1088/1748-9326/aa7e18 (DOI)000410459000003 ()2-s2.0-85030751684 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20171023

Available from: 2017-10-23 Created: 2017-10-23 Last updated: 2018-02-27Bibliographically approved
Mentis, D., Howells, M. I., Rogner, H.-H., Korkovelos, A., Arderne, C., Zepeda, E., . . . Scholtz, E. (2017). Lighting the World: the first application of an open source, spatial electrification tool (OnSSET) on Sub-Saharan Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 12(8), Article ID 085003.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Lighting the World: the first application of an open source, spatial electrification tool (OnSSET) on Sub-Saharan Africa
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2017 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, no 8, article id 085003Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Agenda 2030, which comprises a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) defined by 169 targets. 'Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030' is the seventh goal (SDG7). While access to energy refers to more than electricity, the latter is the central focus of this work. According to the World Bank's 2015 Global Tracking Framework, roughly 15% of the world's population (or 1.1 billion people) lack access to electricity, and many more rely on poor quality electricity services. The majority of those without access (87%) reside in rural areas. This paper presents results of a geographic information systems approach coupled with open access data. We present least-cost electrification strategies on a country-by-country basis for Sub-Saharan Africa. The electrification options include grid extension, mini-grid and stand-alone systems for rural, peri-urban, and urban contexts across the economy. At low levels of electricity demand there is a strong penetration of standalone technologies. However, higher electricity demand levels move the favourable electrification option from stand-alone systems to mini grid and to grid extensions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP), 2017
Keywords
sustainable development goals, energy access modelling, geospatial data
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-206824 (URN)10.1088/1748-9326/aa7b29 (DOI)000406479300001 ()2-s2.0-85029154197 (Scopus ID)
Funder
J. Gust. Richert stiftelseSwedish Research Council
Note

QC 20170607

Available from: 2017-05-08 Created: 2017-05-08 Last updated: 2018-02-27Bibliographically approved
Dhakouani, A., Gardumi, F., Znouda, E., Bouden, C. & Howells, M. I. (2017). Long-term optimisation model of the Tunisian power system. Energy, 141, 550-562
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Long-term optimisation model of the Tunisian power system
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2017 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 141, p. 550-562Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The electricity mix in Tunisia mainly relied on conventional energy sources for over 50 years. Recently, due to fossil fuel prices oscillations and national reserves shortage, the need arose for restructuring the energy supply system. Targeting the integration of renewable energies could be a plan for satisfying the increasing demand and the supply independence. However, several macroeconomic conditions and policies present barriers for the integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), despite their abundance, availability and environmental benefits. This paper presents a long-term model of Tunisia electricity system, based on OSeMOSYS (Open Source energy MOdelling SYStem), aimed at unveiling potential benefits of increasing RES in electricity production. The paper first investigates peculiarities of Tunisia electricity system, arguing the necessity to include them in the electricity system model. Then, it explains the choice of OSeMOSYS and brought modifications, including peculiar system characteristics. Finally, the model is applied to two scenarios, a Business As Usual case and a 30% RES target in electricity production case, for time horizon 2010–2030. Results demonstrate the importance of system features detailed modelling. Specifically, they show that targeting RES state-invested integration in the electricity mix may allow higher energy independence to be reached, without increasing significantly system costs.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2017
Keywords
Electricity mix, Energy systems modelling, Interconnections, Job creation, OSeMOSYS, Tunisian power system
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-218605 (URN)10.1016/j.energy.2017.09.093 (DOI)2-s2.0-85030480696 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20171130

Available from: 2017-11-30 Created: 2017-11-30 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Shivakumar, A., Welsch, M., Taliotis, C., Jakši, D., Barievi, T. & Howells, M. I. (2017). Need for Reliability and Measuring Its Cost. In: Europe's Energy Transition - Insights for Policy Making: (pp. 207-218). Elsevier
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Need for Reliability and Measuring Its Cost
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2017 (English)In: Europe's Energy Transition - Insights for Policy Making, Elsevier, 2017, p. 207-218Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

At present, power supply in the EU is characterized by a relatively high reliability. It should, however, not be taken for granted given the increasing shares of variable RES. Choosing the socioeconomically optimal level of reliability to aim for requires a thorough understanding of the socioeconomic costs of electricity supply interruptions. This chapter provides guidance on how to measure the consequences of supply interruptions and thus determine the value of electricity supply security.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2017
Keywords
Electricity supply security, Power system reliability, Supply interruption costs
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-223083 (URN)10.1016/B978-0-12-809806-6.00024-9 (DOI)2-s2.0-85040585312 (Scopus ID)9780128098066 (ISBN)9780128099032 (ISBN)
Note

QC 20180214

Available from: 2018-02-14 Created: 2018-02-14 Last updated: 2018-02-14Bibliographically approved
Taliotis, C., Taibi, E., Howells, M. I., Rogner, H.-H., Bazilian, M. & Welsch, M. (2017). Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus. Data in Brief, 14, 730-737
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus
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2017 (English)In: Data in Brief, ISSN 2352-3409, Vol. 14, p. 730-737Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The generation mix of Cyprus has been dominated by oil products for decades. In order to conform with European Union and international legislation, a transformation of the supply system is called for. Energy system models can facilitate energy planning into the future, but a large volume of data is required to populate such models. The present data article provides information on key modelling assumptions and input data adopted with the aim of representing the electricity supply system of Cyprus in a separate research article. Data in regards to renewable energy technoeconomic characteristics and investment cost projections, fossil fuel price projections, storage technology characteristics and system operation assumptions are described in this article.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Inc., 2017
Keywords
Cost-optimization, Cyprus, Energy policy, MESSAGE, Renewable energy, Scenarios
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-218883 (URN)10.1016/j.dib.2017.08.019 (DOI)2-s2.0-85028994552 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20180122

Available from: 2018-01-22 Created: 2018-01-22 Last updated: 2018-01-22Bibliographically approved
Pena Balderrama, J. G., Broad, O., Sevillano, R. C., Alejo, L. & Howells, M. (2017). Techno-economic demand projections and scenarios for the Bolivian energy system. Energy Strategy Reviews, 16, 96-109
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Techno-economic demand projections and scenarios for the Bolivian energy system
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2017 (English)In: Energy Strategy Reviews, ISSN 2211-467X, E-ISSN 2211-4688, Vol. 16, p. 96-109Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Increasing energy access in emerging economies has played an important role to maintain or achieve desirable social and economic development targets. As a consequence, the growing energy requirements need policy instruments to ensure energy supply for future generations. The literature reports many studies with different approaches to model and test policy measures in the energy sector, however few energy-related studies for Bolivia are available. This paper addresses this knowledge gap, representing the first national level energy demand model and projections for Bolivia. The model use demographic, economic, technology and policy trends with a pragmatic model structure that combines bottom-up and top-down modelling. The scenario analysis has a particular focus on alternatives for energy savings, energy mix diversification and air quality. Three scenarios were analysed: Energy Savings, Fuel Substitution and the aggregate effects in a Combined scenario. The reference scenario results show the overall energy consumption grows 134% in 2035 compared to 2012 with an annual average growth of 3.8%. The final energy demand in the energy savings scenario is 8.5% lower than the Reference scenario, 1.5% lower in the fuel substitution scenario and 9.4% lower in the combined Scenario. The aggregate impact of both energy savings and fuel substitution measures leads to potential avoided emissions of 25.84 million Tons of CO2 equivalent in the model horizon 2012-2035.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2017
Keywords
Energy demand projections, Bottom-up, Top-down, Energy savings, Avoided emissions
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-211031 (URN)10.1016/j.esr.2017.03.001 (DOI)000403986600008 ()2-s2.0-85018526871 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, 75000554-06Swedish Research Council
Note

QC 20170712

Available from: 2017-07-12 Created: 2017-07-12 Last updated: 2017-07-12Bibliographically approved
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Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0001-6419-4957

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