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Oakes, Benjamin Donald
Publications (4 of 4) Show all publications
Oakes, B. D., Mattsson, L.-G., Näsman, P. & Glazunov, A. A. (2018). A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical Infrastructures. Risk Analysis, 38(6), 1279-1305
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical Infrastructures
2018 (English)In: Risk Analysis, ISSN 0272-4332, E-ISSN 1539-6924, Vol. 38, no 6, p. 1279-1305Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Modern infrastructures are becoming increasingly dependent on electronic systems, leaving them more vulnerable to electrical surges or electromagnetic interference. Electromagnetic disturbances appear in nature, e.g., lightning and solar wind; however, they may also be generated by man-made technology to maliciously damage or disturb electronic equipment. This article presents a systematic risk assessment framework for identifying possible, consequential, and plausible intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) attacks on an arbitrary distribution network infrastructure. In the absence of available data on IEMI occurrences, we find that a systems-based risk assessment is more useful than a probabilistic approach. We therefore modify the often applied definition of risk, i.e., a set of triplets containing scenario, probability, and consequence, to a set of quadruplets: scenario, resource requirements, plausibility, and consequence. Probability is replaced by resource requirements and plausibility, where the former is the minimum amount and type of equipment necessary to successfully carry out an attack scenario and the latter is a subjective assessment of the extent of the existence of attackers who possess the motivation, knowledge, and resources necessary to carry out the scenario. We apply the concept of intrusion areas and classify electromagnetic source technology according to key attributes. Worst-case scenarios are identified for different quantities of attacker resources. The most plausible and consequential of these are deemed the most important scenarios and should provide useful decision support in a countermeasures effort. Finally, an example of the proposed risk assessment framework, based on notional data, is provided on a hypothetical water distribution network.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
WILEY, 2018
Keywords
Critical infrastructures, intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI), operational models, risk analysis, water distribution network
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-231194 (URN)10.1111/risa.12945 (DOI)000434645900013 ()29314162 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85040365367 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies AgencyThe Swedish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS)
Note

QC 20180720

Available from: 2018-07-20 Created: 2018-07-20 Last updated: 2019-08-20Bibliographically approved
Oakes, B. D. (2017). Risk Analysis of Intentional Electromagnetic Interference on Critical Infrastructures. (Licentiate dissertation). Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Risk Analysis of Intentional Electromagnetic Interference on Critical Infrastructures
2017 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Our modern society depends on the functioning and interplay of a wealth of infrastructures. Practicallyall of these infrastructures are in some form or another, dependent on electrical and electronicsystems. The majority of modern infrastructure is dependent on electric power and controlled bySupervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. Electronic systems are sensitive toelectromagnetic interference and at the same time, sources of electromagnetic interference are becomingmore readily available on the market.This means that certain important electronic infrastructure could be exposed to the risk of intentionalelectromagnetic interference (IEMI). Therefore, and also due to the complex nature of electronicinfrastructure, a comprehensive risk assessment methodology is needed. A game-theoretic approachfor quantitative risk assessment of the recently recognised threat of intentional electromagneticinterference on critical infrastructures is presented. The thesis bridges the gap between thefields of IEMI and risk analysis and lays a foundation for further development within this multidisciplinaryfield.In paper I, the probability distribution function of the electric field strength from a continuouswave source is estimated in complex building structures. Probability distribution functions arecombined for small and large scale fluctuations.In paper II, a structured risk assessment framework is presented for identifying and quantifyingthe risk of IEMI on a distribution network infrastructure. The dimensions and components of riskare dissected and a suitable definition of risk is formulated.In paper III, an operational model is formulated to optimise the operation of a wireless networkunder the course of a coordinated jamming attack. The model captures the time dimension andillustrates how the network operator must dynamically control the network so as to reduce the totalnetwork operational cost.

Abstract [sv]

Det moderna samhället är starkt beroende av funktionaliteten och samspelet mellan en mängd olikainfrastrukturer. Alla dessa infrastrukturer beror på ett eller annat sätt på elektriska och elektroniskasystem. Majoriteten av modern infrastruktur är beroende av elkraft och styrs av så kallade SupervisoryControl and Data Aquisition (SCADA) system. Elektronik är känslig mot elektromagnetiskastörningar och samtidigt har elektromagnetiska störsändare blivit alltmer lättillgängligt för allmänhetenpå marknaden.Således kan viss kritisk teknisk infrastruktur vara utsatt för risk av avsiktliga elektromagnetiskastörningar. Denna sårbarhet och komplexiteten hos elektronisk infrastruktur kräver en utförlig metodför riskanalys. Här presenteras en spelteoretisk metod för kvantitativ riskanalys av det relativtnyligen identifierade hotet avsiktlig elektromagnetisk störning av samhällsviktig teknisk infrastruktur.Avhandlingen knyter ihop ämnesområdena IEMI och riskanalys och lägger en grund för vidareutveckling inom samverkansområdet.I papper I beräknas sannolikhetsfördelningen hos elektriska fältstyrkan från en kontinuerlig vågkällai komplexa byggnadsstrukturer. Sannolikhetsfördelningar kombineras för små och storskaligafluktuationer.I papper II presenteras ett strukturerat ramverk för riskanalys som identifierar och kvantifierarrisken för IEMI hos en infrastruktur i form av ett distributionsnätverk. Dimensionerna och komponenternaav risk identifieras och riskbegreppet definieras specifikt för IEMI.I papper III formuleras en “operational model” som optimerar underhållningen av ett trådlöstnätverk under ett koordinerat jamming attack. Modellen tar hänsyn till tidsdimensionen och illustrerarhur nätverksoperatorn måste dynamiskt styra om nätverket så att totala underhållningskostnaden minimeras.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. p. 23
Series
Theses in Risk and Safety from the Division of Philosophy at the Royal Institute of Technology, ISSN 1654-627X
National Category
Philosophy
Research subject
Philosophy; Planning and Decision Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203788 (URN)978-91-7729-321-7 (ISBN)
Presentation
2017-04-07, D3, Lindstedtvägen 5, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency
Note

QC 20170317

Available from: 2017-03-17 Created: 2017-03-16 Last updated: 2017-03-23Bibliographically approved
Oakes, B. D., Mattsson, L.-G., Näsman, P. & Bäckström, M. A Dynamic Operational Model for Improving the Resilience of Wireless Networks Against Jamming.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Dynamic Operational Model for Improving the Resilience of Wireless Networks Against Jamming
(English)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
Keywords
Jamming attacks; Resilience; Vulnerability; Critical infrastructure; Wireless networks; Intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI)
National Category
Philosophy Telecommunications
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203784 (URN)
Note

QC 20170317

Available from: 2017-03-16 Created: 2017-03-16 Last updated: 2017-03-20Bibliographically approved
Oakes, B. D., Mattsson, L.-G., Näsman, P. & Glazunov, A. A. A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on CriticalInfrastructures.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on CriticalInfrastructures
(English)Article in journal (Refereed) Submitted
Keywords
Intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI); critical infrastructures; risk analysis; operational models; water distribution network
National Category
Philosophy Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203782 (URN)
Note

QC 20170317

Available from: 2017-03-16 Created: 2017-03-16 Last updated: 2017-03-20Bibliographically approved
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