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Skånberg, Kristian
Publications (7 of 7) Show all publications
Skånberg, K. & Svenfelt, Å. (2021). Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios. Futures & Foresight Science, 4(2), Article ID e116.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios
2021 (English)In: Futures & Foresight Science, ISSN 2573-5152, Vol. 4, no 2, article id e116Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper builds on four qualitative backcasting scenarios that illustrate sustainable futures in a Swedish setting. The paper complements the originally qualitative scenarios by developing an eight‐step modified and expanded IPAT model—originally describing environmental impact as a product of population, affluence, and technology—that also enables quantitative descriptions of the scenarios. The modified and expanded IPAT model is used to show how the scenarios can stay within the climate aspect of sustainability. The result is quantified descriptions of the development paths of energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions, working hours, man‐made capital stocks, recycled and nonrecycled materials used, and different types of energy used in the four scenarios. The four main findings are (a) the back‐bone instrument in making the energy system fossilfree will, in all scenarios, substitute fossil energy with renewable energy; (b) however, to succeed with that it is necessary to use different mixes of many complementary climate policy instruments; (c) IPAT models can be modified and expanded in many different ways to act as quantitative descriptions of different technological developments and social changes in scenario exercises; (d) by disregarding gross domestic product as a proxy for affluence, and replacing it with labor and capital, behavioral concepts like sharing and prolonged product lifetimes can more easily be introduced as climate policy options in a modified and expanded IPAT model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Wiley, 2021
Keywords
backcasting, beyond growth, climate policies, expanding IPAT, quantify scenarios
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-318317 (URN)10.1002/ffo2.116 (DOI)2-s2.0-85156261379 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas
Note

QC 20220921

Available from: 2022-09-20 Created: 2022-09-20 Last updated: 2023-07-11Bibliographically approved
Stenberg, E. (2019). En ny plattform för att lösa bostadsfrågan: En antologi om samverkan kring bo- och byggnadsfrågor. Stockholm: Global Utmaning
Open this publication in new window or tab >>En ny plattform för att lösa bostadsfrågan: En antologi om samverkan kring bo- och byggnadsfrågor
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2019 (Swedish)Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Abstract [sv]

Bakgrund: Hur hamnade vi här (sid 16-28)

av Carl-Johan Engström, Kristian Skånberg och Erik Stenberg

Byggandet utgör en stor delav de svenska samhälleligainvesteringarna. Boendet ståri sin tur för den enskilt störstaposten i de flestas hushållsbudget.Detta gör att det sammantagethandlar om mycket stora pengaroch resursflöden kopplade tillhållbarhetsfrågor. Det rör ocksåde miljöer där de flesta människortillbringar merparten av sina liv,med alla de beröringspunkter kringsocial hållbarhet som detta för medsig. Det gör förändringar mycket angelägna.

Byggandet: Kolsänka och energiproducent

av Victoria Kalén och Erik Stenberg (sid 55-61)

Bygg- och fastighetssektorn stårför en stor del av samhälletsutsläpp av växthusgaser. År 2015var de inhemska utsläppen avväxthusgaser ca 11,1 miljonerton koldioxidekvivalenter. Detmotsvarade 18 procent av Sverigestotala utsläpp av växthusgaser.Lägger vi till utsläppen som byggochfastighetssektorn genererarutomlands så blir totalen över 20miljoner ton koldioxidekvivalenter.Boverkets miljöindikatorer visaratt bygg- och fastighetssektornsmiljöpåverkan ökat ytterligaresedan dess. Dessutom kommervia de globala varukedjorna förbyggmaterial ytterligare uppemot 10miljoner ton koldioxidekvivalenter ini den svenska byggprocessen årligen.Ur ett konsumtionsperspektiv äralltså de byggrelaterade utsläppenännu högre.

Hela rapporten:

En ny plattform för att lösa bostadsfrågan är en antologi skriven av sex författare i samråd med Global Utmanings programråd för Hållbara Städer. Antologin tar avstamp i bostadsfrågan ur ett historiskt perspektiv och belyser frågan utifrån den gemensamma strategin för en hållbara omställning – Agenda 2030. Plattformen hanterar en såväl ekonomisk, som social och miljömässig omställning av ”bostadsfrågan”, det vill säga boendet, byggandet och stadsutvecklingen. Antologin innehåller dels förslaget till plattform för samverkan och dels fem bidrag som konkretiserar problem och utmaningar.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Global Utmaning, 2019. p. 73
National Category
Architecture
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-264466 (URN)978-91-88331-22-9 (ISBN)
Note

QC 20191129

Available from: 2019-11-27 Created: 2019-11-27 Last updated: 2024-03-18Bibliographically approved
Hagbert, P., Finnveden, G., Feuhrer, P., Svenfelt, Å., Alfredsson, E., Aretun, Å., . . . Öhlund, E. (2019). Futures Beyond GDP Growth: Final report from the research program 'Beyond GDP Growth: Scenarios for sustainable building and planning'. Stockholm
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Futures Beyond GDP Growth: Final report from the research program 'Beyond GDP Growth: Scenarios for sustainable building and planning'
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2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A future society no longer based on economic growth – what would that look like?The research program “Beyond GDP Growth: Scenarios for sustainable building and planning” (www.bortombnptillvaxt.se) is a strong research environment funded by the Swedish Research CouncilFormas, which has run between 2014 and 2018. In collaboration with societal partners, the program hasgathered researchers from diferent disciplines to explore key issues and conditions for planning for asustainable future beyond GDP growth. This is a relevant contribution to a largely under-researchedarea, where few scientific studies have explored what a sustainable society could look like, and what asustainable economy that is not based on growth might actually mean.In economic and political discussions, the notion of continuous economic growth is often taken forgranted and seen as a prerequisite for a safe and sustainable societal development. At the same time,a blind faith in and expectations surrounding growth can constitute a threat to the development of asustainable society if growth declines. Also an optimistic prognosis from the OECD indicates that it islikely that future GDP growth will be lower than what has come to be seen as the normal level duringthe second half of the 20th century. Declining economic growth could mean risks for increased socialgaps and unemployment. However, economic models show that the possibilities for handling these risksincrease if there is an awareness of them, and if this is addressed politically. Therefore, it is important tonot just assume continued economic growth, but to plan also for alternative scenarios.A starting point for the research program has been an understanding of the significant transitionsneeded to approach a safe and just operating space for humanity within planetary boundaries. Fourgoals that should be met in order to consider the societal development sustainable were specified: twoenvironmental goals related to climate and land use, and two social goals regarding power, influence andparticipation, and welfare and resource security.Four scenarios for Sweden 2050 were developed, which show the diferent directions society could taketo reach the set sustainability goals. The scenarios illustrate future societies that do not have to build onthe current economic logic, but that instead are centred around four alternative strategies:Collaborative EconomyLocal Self-SufciencyAutomation for Quality of LifeCircular Economy in the Welfare StateSo, can we reach the selected sustainability targets in the four future scenarios? A transformation ofhistorical proportions are needed – and it needs to start immediately. According to the sustainabilityassessment conducted within the project, the environmental goals of climate and land use can be reachedin all scenarios, even though it demands changing multiple parameters at the same time. Nothing pointsto it being impossible or generally difcult to achieve the social goals in the four scenarios, however theremight be diferent aspects that are particularly tricky. There are both development potentials and risks,which can be diametrically opposite for diferent social groups and parts of the country, depending onthe local prerequisites.Many diferent images of sustainable futures are needed. The scenarios should be seen as a tool fordiscussion and analysis when it comes to planning for a sustainable societal development beyondGDP growth. They challenge notions of what is possible, what changes that can and should be made,6what decisions that are needed and what should be prioritized. The scenarios all suggest a largechange compared the current development trajectory, and for example all point towards the need forredistribution of resources. It might involve economic resources, but could also relate to power andinfluence over production, or the possibility to use land for production of food, materials and energy.This redistribution could happen according to diferent principles in the diferent scenarios.In all the scenarios, the consumption of goods and of meat is reduced. Flight travel also needs to bedrastically reduced to reach the climate target. There is furthermore a need for reducing the constructionof both housing and road infrastructure, although to varying extents in the four scenarios. Other aspectssuch as working hours, the organization of welfare systems, the characteristics of the built environmentand the amount of infrastructure needed are on the other hand diferent in the diferent scenarios.The research program has explored what a development that isn't based on economic growth, in linewith the strategies that are depicted in the scenarios, would mean for rural as well as urban conditions.Three case study municipalities were selected with regards to their diferent geographical location,built form, economic development and size of the population: Övertorneå, Alingsås and Malmö. Insome sub-studies in these diferent contexts, descriptions emerged of cognitive as well as structuralbarriers, a sense of powerlessness and a weak capacity for transition among diferent actors. This isconnected to expectations and general assumptions regarding growth, partly irrespective of the context.Municipalities and companies to a large extent plan for and expect a societal development that buildsupon a further expansion of infrastructure, transport and consumption. Despite visions for sustainabledevelopment, in practice this often leads to a reproduction of current unsustainable structures and waysof life.At the same time, specific empirical studies within the project point toward stories of self-sufciency,of regional upswings and that the population is more important than GDP. There is an increasedawareness and a multitude of examples of experimenting with new sustainable practices that constituteseeds for change. Critiques against planning for continuous growth is being taken more seriously andclearer political visions are demanded. New forms of organizing the economy, society and welfare arealso being developed. Some examples include working from a perspective on socio-ecological justice,integration of sustainability targets in all planning, and developing new roles for consumers andproducers. These ideas can be seen as windows of opportunity, but also show that change can happenwithin the current system.The future means change. In this research program, we point towards some possible futures that aimat reaching certain sustainability targets. The scenarios and the discussion and analysis that they havebrought about show that there is an opportunity to move towards a sustainable development withmaintained or even increased well-being – provided that the understanding of well-being is based onother values than those of our current society. For these possible future trajectories to gain support,there is a need of political instruments and measures that actively drive the development towards a justand safe operating space for humanity

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2019. p. 57
Series
TRITA-ABE-RPT ; 1835
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Research subject
Planning and Decision Analysis, Strategies for sustainable development
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-340632 (URN)978-91-7873-044-5 (ISBN)
Projects
Beyond GDP Growth: Scenarios for sustainable building and planning
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas
Note

Translation of DiVA 1524798

QC 20231211

Available from: 2023-12-08 Created: 2023-12-08 Last updated: 2024-03-18Bibliographically approved
Svenfelt, Å., Alfredsson, E., Bradley, K., Fauré, E., Finnveden, G., Fuehrer, P., . . . Ohlund, E. (2019). Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, 111, 1-14
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050
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2019 (English)In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 111, p. 1-14Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The idea of continued economic growth is increasingly questioned and critically analysed on the basis of its potential negative sustainability impact. Along with the critique, visions and strategies for alternative systems need also be brought onto the agenda. The aim of this paper is to present the qualitative content of scenarios that explore sustainability strategies for the Swedish society when economic growth is not seen as an end in itself, and instead the objective is other values/targets that society might wish to achieve. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are developed that illustrate future states in which four sustainability targets (climate, land use, participation, and resource security) are to be attained. The focus of these four scenarios is: 1) a Collaborative economy, 2) Local self-sufficiency, 3) Automation for quality of life, and 4) Circular economy in the welfare state. In the paper, we also present the process of the development of the scenarios, and feedback from stakeholders. Although the focus is on Sweden, the process and scenarios may also be relevant for other similar countries. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their relevance and their purpose, the fulfilment of the sustainability targets, and the multi-target approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2019
Keywords
Multi-target, Sustainability targets, Backcasting, Scenarios, Beyond growth
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-257561 (URN)10.1016/j.futures.2019.05.001 (DOI)000478703800001 ()2-s2.0-85066049333 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20190925

Available from: 2019-09-25 Created: 2019-09-25 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved
Malmaeus, M., Finnveden, G., Svenfelt, Å., Bradley, K., Callmer, Å., Fauré, E., . . . Ölund, E. (2018). Riskabelt att tro att tillväxt ska lösa våra problem.. Svenska Dagbladet, Article ID 28 november.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Riskabelt att tro att tillväxt ska lösa våra problem.
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2018 (Swedish)In: Svenska Dagbladet, ISSN 1101-2412, article id 28 novemberArticle in journal, News item (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.)) Published
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-250603 (URN)
Note

QC 20221003

Available from: 2019-04-30 Created: 2019-04-30 Last updated: 2022-11-25Bibliographically approved
Ekener, E., Katzeff, C., Gunnarsson-Östling, U. & Skånberg, K. (2018). Så hänger jämställdhet och jämlikhet ihop med miljömålen: En analys av ömsesidiga beroenden mellan olika Hållbarhetsmål. Stockholm: Naturvårdsverket
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Så hänger jämställdhet och jämlikhet ihop med miljömålen: En analys av ömsesidiga beroenden mellan olika Hållbarhetsmål
2018 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Naturvårdsverket, 2018
Keywords
Agenda 2030; Sustainable Development Goal, SDG; Gender Equality; Inequalities; Goal 5; Goal 10, Agenda 2030; Globala hållbarhetsmålen; jämställdhet; jämlikhet, mål 5, mål 10
National Category
Environmental Management
Research subject
Planning and Decision Analysis, Strategies for sustainable development
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-268899 (URN)978-91-620-6856-1 (ISBN)
Funder
Swedish Environmental Protection Agency
Note

QC 20200225

Available from: 2020-02-25 Created: 2020-02-25 Last updated: 2022-06-26Bibliographically approved
Svenfelt, Å., Alfredsson, E., Bradley, K., Fauré, E., Finnveden, G., Fuehrer, P., . . . Stigson, P.Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The idea of continued economic growth is increasingly questioned and critically analysed on the basis of its potential negative sustainability impact. Along with the critique, visions and strategies for alternative systems need also be brought onto the agenda. The aim of this paper is to present the qualitative content of scenarios that explore sustainability strategies for Swedish society when economic growth is not seen as an end in itself, and the goal is instead other values/goals that society might wish to achieve. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are developed, that illustrate future states in which four sustainability targets (climate, land use, participation and resource security) are to be attained. The focus of the four scenarios is: 1) collaborative economy, 2) local self-sufficiency, 3) automation for quality of life, and 4) circular economy in the welfare state. In the paper, we also present the process of the development of the scenarios and feedback from stakeholders. Although the focus is on Sweden, the process and scenarios should also be relevant for other similar countries. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their relevance and their purpose, the fulfilment of the sustainability goals and the multi-target approach.

Keywords
Multi target, sustainability goals, backcasting, scenarios, beyond growth
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Planning and Decision Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-239413 (URN)
Note

QC 20181127

Available from: 2018-11-22 Created: 2018-11-22 Last updated: 2022-06-26Bibliographically approved
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