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Forecasting Balancing Market Prices Using Hidden Markov Models
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4490-9278
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6000-9363
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9998-9773
2016 (English)In: 2016 13TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET (EEM), IEEE conference proceedings, 2016Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based method to predict the prices and trading volumes in the electricity balancing markets. The HMM are quite powerful in modelling stochastic processes where the underlying dynamics are not apparent. The proposed method provides both one hour and 12-36 hour ahead forecasts. The first is mostly useful to wind/solar producers in order to compensate their production imbalances while the second is important when submitting the offers to the day ahead markets. The results are compared to the ones from Markov-autoregressive model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE conference proceedings, 2016.
Series
International Conference on the European Energy Market, ISSN 2165-4077
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-193848DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2016.7521229ISI: 000382910700053Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84983287360ISBN: 978-1-5090-1298-5 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-193848DiVA, id: diva2:1037704
Conference
13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), JUN 06-09, 2016, Porto, PORTUGAL
Note

QC 20161017

Available from: 2016-10-17 Created: 2016-10-11 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved

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fulltext(1597 kB)924 downloads
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File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1597 kBChecksum SHA-512
2d8b75f3875c81525c7b44bdad4bb1f7fdd1301853f3634df60c0b92229a0447bf7470a954ec0e3e12c35f39ac488ce96a93d81b24723c6f6553d20d051320ee
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Publisher's full textScopushttp://eem2016.com/

Authority records

Dimoulkas, IliasAmelin, MikaelHesamzadeh, Mohammad Reza

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
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Output format
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