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Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part one - Review
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2603-7595
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Applied Thermodynamics and Refrigeration.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7354-6643
2017 (English)In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 74, p. 1379-1393Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The market for solar photovoltaic systems is growing rapidly into a mature industry, while at the same time policies which have spurred the growth (e.g. feed-in tariffs or net metering) are beginning to fade away. These policies made techno-economic studies relatively simple for engineers, analysts, and owners, however investing in a deregulated market requires more advanced tools than the traditional engineering economics which dominate the literature. The objective of part one in this paper is to catalogue and critique the range of methods and models relevant to techno-economic analysis for PV systems in the context of distributed, grid-connected buildings. This is accomplished by; developing a system modeling framework for prosumer PV investment analysis, reviewing relevant energy, economics, and finance literature to identify mathematical models which can be applied, and cataloging the use of the reviewed techniques in the relevant literature. Also included is a qualitative discussion of the benefits and practicality of the review techniques, where Monte Carlo analysis is highlighted as an exemplary method. This review is useful as a reference for analysts, researchers, and engineers developing PV integration solutions for building energy systems in a post early adopter PV market.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD , 2017. Vol. 74, p. 1379-1393
Keywords [en]
Solar PV, Prosumer, Economics, Investment, Modeling
National Category
Software Engineering Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-208714DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.232ISI: 000401492900096Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85007453567OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-208714DiVA, id: diva2:1108446
Note

QC 2017-06-12

Available from: 2017-06-12 Created: 2017-06-12 Last updated: 2022-06-27Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Solar PV in prosumer energy systems: A techno-economic analysis on sizing, integration, and risk
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Solar PV in prosumer energy systems: A techno-economic analysis on sizing, integration, and risk
2019 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In the transition towards a sustainable energy system, building mounted solar photovoltaics (PV) have unique benefits; they require no additional land and the energy is generated directly at load centers. Within residential buildings, multi-family homes (MFH) are particularly interesting because of the economies of scale and their greater potential for emissions reductions.

This thesis identifies and describes value propositions for solar PV within Swedish multi-family houses via three branches of inquiry; system sizing optimization, quantification of investment risk, and the techno-economic potential of PV/thermal (PVT) collectors integrated with ground source heat pumps (GSHP). Underpinning these investigations is a comprehensive review of technical and economic models for solar PV, resulting in a catalogue of performance indicators and applied techniques.

From the sizing analysis, no objective, techno-economically optimal PV system size is found without including the prosumer’s personal motives. Prioritizing return on investment results in small systems, whereas systems sized for net-zero energy can be profitable in some buildings. There is also a strong economic incentive to adopt communal electricity metering to increase self-consumption, system size, and economic return. Monte Carlo analysis is used to quantify investment uncertainty, finding that well-designed systems have an 81% chance of earning a 3% real return on investment, and even without subsidies there is a calculated 100% chance of having a positive return. PVT integrated GSHP can reduce the land needed for boreholes by up to 87% with a lower lifecycle cost than district heating, thereby broadening the heat pump market and reducing barriers to heating electrification.

The quantitative results provide guidance for Swedish MFH owners while the methodology presents solar PV value in a more useful manner for prosumers to identify their personal motives in decision making. This approach is also useful for researchers, business leaders, and policy makers to understand the prosumer perspective and promote adoption of PV in the built environment.

Abstract [sv]

I övergången mot ett hållbart energisystem har takmonterade solceller unika fördelar; de kräver ingen extra mark och elenergin genereras direkt där den behövs. Inom bostadssektorn är flerfamiljshus särskilt intressanta på grund av stordriftsfördelar och deras större möjlighet att bidra till minskade utsläpp.

Denna avhandling identifierar och beskriver värdeerbjudanden för solceller i svenska flerfamiljshus via tre frågeställningar; optimering av installationens storlek, kvantifiering av investeringsrisken och den teknisk-ekonomiska potentialen för PV/termiska (PVT) paneler integrerade med bergvärmepump. Analysen grundas på en omfattande genomgång av tekniska och ekonomiska modeller för solceller, vilket resulterar i en katalog över prestandaindikatorer och tillämpbara utvärderingstekniker.

I analysen av storlekens betydelse hittas inget objektiv, tekniskt-ekonomiskt optimalt system utan bästa storlek beror av prosumentens personliga motiv. Att prioritera avkastning på kapitalet ger mindre system, medan lägre krav kan ge större storlek som når netto-noll energi med godtagbar avkastning. Det finns också ett starkt ekonomiskt incitament att använda gemensam mätning av fastighets- och lägenhetsel för att öka egen-förbrukningen, systemstorleken och den ekonomiska avkastningen. Monte Carlo-analys har använts för att kvantifiera investeringarnas osäkerhet och visar att väl utformade system har 81% chans att ge 3% avkastning, och även utan subventioner finns en 100% chans att få positiv avkastning. Om PVT integreras med bergvärmepump kan markytan för borrhål minskas med upp till 87% och ge en lägre livscykelkostnad än fjärrvärme, vilket kan bredda värmepumpmarknaden och minska hindren för elektrifiering av uppvärmningen.

Resultaten ger vägledning för svenska husägare då metodiken ger verktyg att identifiera personliga motiv i beslutsfattandet. Metoden är också användbar för forskare, företagsledare och beslutsfattare för att förstå prosument-perspektivet och främja installationen av solceller i den byggda miljön.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2019. p. 109
Series
TRITA-ITM-AVL ; 2019:38
Keywords
Electrify everything, building energy systems, energy systems analysis, solar heat pump, investment analysis, Monte Carlo analysis, PVT, solar hybrid, Electrify everything, byggnadsenergisystem, energisystemanalys, solvärmepump, investeringsanalys, Monte Carlo analys, PVT, solhybrid
National Category
Energy Engineering Energy Systems
Research subject
Energy Technology; Planning and Decision Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-263896 (URN)978-91-7873-375-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2019-12-16, F3, Lindstedtsvägen 26, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2012-256Swedish Energy Agency, 40936-1
Available from: 2019-11-22 Created: 2019-11-19 Last updated: 2022-06-26Bibliographically approved

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Sommerfeldt, NelsonMadani Larijani, Hatef

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