kth.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Estimation of Individual Failure Rates for Power System Components based on Risk Functions
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electromagnetic Engineering. (Reliability Centred Asset Management (RCAM) Group)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3543-9326
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems. (Power system operation and control)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3014-5609
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electromagnetic Engineering. (Reliability Centred Asset Management (RCAM) Group)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2964-7233
2018 (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The failure rate is essential in power system reliability assessment and thus far it has been commonly assumed as constant. This is a basic approach that delivers reasonable results. However, this approach neglects the heterogeneity in component populations which has a negative impact on the accuracy of the failure rate. This paper proposes a method based on risk functions, which describes the risk behaviour of condition measurements over time, to compute individual failure rates within populations. The method is applied to a population of 12 power transformers on transmission level. The computed individual failure rates depict the impact of maintenance and that power transformers with long operation times have a higher failure rate. Moreover, the paper presents a procedure based on the proposed approach to forecast failure rates. Finally, the individual failure rates are calculated over a specified prediction horizon and depicted with a 95\% confidence interval.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. p. 1-8
Keywords [en]
Asset management, condition monitoring, failure rate, failure rate modeling, power transformer diagnostics
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-235518OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-235518DiVA, id: diva2:1251651
Note

QC 20180928

Available from: 2018-09-27 Created: 2018-09-27 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Individual Failure Rate Modelling and Exploratory Failure Data Analysis for Power System Components
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Individual Failure Rate Modelling and Exploratory Failure Data Analysis for Power System Components
2018 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A set of vital societal functions such as health and safety are necessary for today's society to function and to secure the life of its individuals. Infrastructure is required to provide and maintain these functions. This for society critical infrastructure includes electronic communication technology, transport systems, oil \& gas supply, water supply, and the supply of electric power. The electric power system plays a central role in the critical infrastructure since it is required to operate all others. Therefore, outages in the power system can have severe consequences not solely for the supply of electricity but also for the supply of water, gas, and food. To provide a reliable and safe power supply, power system operators are applying asset management strategies to investigate, plan, maintain, and utilize the system and its components while improving the performance under its own financial constraints.

One approach to increase the reliability of the power grid while decreasing costs is maintenance planning, scheduling, and optimization. To optimize maintenance, a reliability measure for power system components is required. The failure rate, which is the probability of failure in a predefined interval, is utilized in maintenance optimization. Thus far, an average failure rate has been assigned to all components of the same type due to a shortage of component failure data. However, this limits the accuracy of maintenance techniques since the component heterogeneity is neglected. Moreover, the actual failure rate is being underrated or overrated and it is a challenge to identify the impact of conducted maintenance tasks.

This thesis presents how the failure rate accuracy can be improved despite limited failure data available. Firstly, an introduction to failure rate modelling theory, concepts, and definitions is given to provide a common understanding for the later chapters and papers. Secondly, regression models are presented which can be used to model, predict, and characterise the failure rate and failure intensity for power system components. The Cox regression and regression models for count data are applied to two case studies of disconnector and circuit breaker failure data. The results contribute to an improved modelling of the failure rate on individual level but also improve the understanding of risk factor's impact on component failures. However, the aforementioned regression models have rarely been applied in the power system domain due to the limited failure data. Thirdly, the necessity to distinguish between population and individual failure rates is illustrated and risk factors and methods are presented, which are frequently used in failure rate modelling. Moreover, the thesis presents a method to calculate and predict individual failure rates despite the occurrence of actual failures which is of particular advantage for new components.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2018. p. 79
Series
TRITA-EECS-AVL ; 2018:67
Keywords
Asset management, condition monitoring, failure rate, failure rate modeling
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-235519 (URN)978-91-7729-950-9 (ISBN)
Public defence
2018-10-19, E3, Osquars backe 14, Kungl. Tekniska högskolan, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Projects
SweGRIDS, the Swedish Centre for Smart Grids and Energy Storage
Funder
SweGRIDS - Swedish Centre for Smart Grids and Energy Storage
Note

QC 20180928

Available from: 2018-09-28 Created: 2018-09-27 Last updated: 2022-06-26Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Authority records

Jürgensen, Jan HenningNordström, LarsHilber, Patrik

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Jürgensen, Jan HenningNordström, LarsHilber, Patrik
By organisation
Electromagnetic EngineeringElectric Power and Energy SystemsElectromagnetic Engineering
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 1339 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf