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The Swedish Power System Resilience against Bad Weather Conditions
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electromagnetic Engineering.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electromagnetic Engineering. (QED)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6779-4082
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electromagnetic Engineering. (QED)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2964-7233
Swedish National Grid, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2025-5759
2021 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

As a result of global warming, the frequency of bad weather events has increased raptly, but so has the demand for more reliable power supply. This study investigates the Swedish power distribution system’s resilience towards certain weather conditions such as wind, lightning, rain etc. The input data is all unplanned disturbances gathered from the Swedish energy companies (Energiföretagen Sverige) between 2015 and 2019. After sorting and analyzing the data, the results are then compared to the weather data from SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). The results show that on average 21% of unplanned outages are related to weather conditions in Sweden. Of the weather phenomena studied, wind and lightning are significantly affecting the resilience of the power system. One way to prevent outages, especially in lower voltage distribution systems, where most disturbances occur, is to improve the maintenance of the system.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Applied Energy Innovation Institute (AEii) , 2021.
Keywords [en]
climate change, power system, outages, reliability, resilience, weather
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-319480DOI: 10.46855/energy-proceedings-9186Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85190475491OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-319480DiVA, id: diva2:1699950
Conference
International Conference on Applied Energy 2021, Bangkok, Thailand, November 29-December 2.
Funder
SweGRIDS - Swedish Centre for Smart Grids and Energy Storage, CP26
Note

QC 20220930

Available from: 2022-09-29 Created: 2022-09-29 Last updated: 2024-07-11Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Security of Electricity Supply in Power Systems: Establishing a Global Framework for Assessing Power System Health and Analyzing Outage Statistics in Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Security of Electricity Supply in Power Systems: Establishing a Global Framework for Assessing Power System Health and Analyzing Outage Statistics in Sweden
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The primary objective of this thesis is to enhance the security of electricity supply by providing a holistic perspective and introducing a comprehensive framework for assessing power system health. This novel approach aims for a thorough evaluation of the system’s overall performance and well-being, using the physical dimensions of the security of supply as the foundation for a power system health index. 

After establishing the theoretical framework, relevant and available data is collected in order to analyze and understand the system’s performance. By analyzing outage statistics in Sweden, the research identifies specific trends and performance metrics that can be further investigated and segmented according to various criteria. The insights gained from this research can, in turn, be used to inform proactive maintenance strategies and capacity planning, ultimately mitigating the risks of outages and ensuring a more reliable electricity supply. 

Outage statistics are furthermore analyzed from the aspect of data quality, focusing on inconsistencies and missing values in the outage reports, i.e. unknown outage causes and unidentified faulty equipment. By carefully examining the data, noticeable gaps and deficiencies are revealed. Thus, a format for improving outage reporting using a database with 3 relations (outage summary, outage breakdown and customer breakdown) is proposed. In addition to a qualitative analysis of the data, various machine learning algorithms are explored and tested for their capability to predict the unknown values within the dataset, thereby offering a twofold solution: enhancing the accuracy of outage data and facilitating deeper, more accurate analytical capabilities. The findings and proposals within this work highlight the current challenges within outage data management and also lay the groundwork for a more comprehensive, data-driven approach in outage management and policy development. 

Abstract [sv]

Det primära syftet med denna avhandling är att förbättra elförsörjningstryggheten genom att tillhandahålla ett holistiskt perspektiv och införa ett heltäckande ram- verk för att bedöma kraftsystemets hälsa. Detta nya tillvägagångssätt syftar till en grundlig utvärdering av systemets övergripande prestanda och välbefinnande, med hjälp av de fysiska dimensionerna av försörjningstryggheten som grunden för ett hälsoindex för kraftsystemet. 

Efter att ha upprättat det teoretiska ramverket samlas relevant och tillgäng- lig data in för att analysera och förstå systemets prestanda. Genom att analysera avbrottsstatistik i Sverige identifierar forskningen specifika trender och prestations- mått som kan undersökas ytterligare och segmenteras enligt olika kriterier. Insik- terna från denna forskning kan i sin tur användas för att informera om proaktiva underhållsstrategier och kapacitetsplanering, för att i slutändan minska riskerna för avbrott och säkerställa en mer tillförlitlig elförsörjning. 

Avbrottsstatistiken analyseras vidare ur aspekten datakvalitet, med fokus på inkonsekvenser och saknade värden i avbrottsrapporterna, det vill säga okända av- brottsorsaker och oidentifierad felaktig utrustning. Genom att noggrant granska uppgifterna avslöjas märkbara luckor och brister. Därför föreslås ett format för att förbättra avbrottsrapporteringen med hjälp av en databas med 3 relationer (avbrottsöversikt, avbrottsuppdelning och kunduppdelning). Förutom en kvalitativ analys av data, utforskas och testas olika maskininlärningsalgoritmer med avseen- de på deras förmåga att förutsäga de okända värdena i datamängden, och erbjuder därmed en tvåfaldig lösning: förbättrar avbrottsdatans noggrannhet och underlättar djupare, mer exakta analytiska möjligheter. Resultaten och förslagen inom detta arbete belyser de nuvarande utmaningarna inom hantering av avbrottsdata och lägger också grunden för ett mer omfattande, datadrivet tillvägagångssätt inom avbrottshantering och policyutveckling. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2024. p. 56
Series
TRITA-EECS-AVL ; 2024:11
Keywords
security of electricity supply, power system health, outage statistics, data analysis
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-342706 (URN)978-91-8040-824-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-02-19, https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/68367508107, Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 6, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
SweGRIDS - Swedish Centre for Smart Grids and Energy Storage, CP26
Note

QC 20240129

Available from: 2024-01-29 Created: 2024-01-29 Last updated: 2024-02-05Bibliographically approved

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Hou, NovalieDuvnjak Zarkovic, SanjaHilber, PatrikShayesteh, Ebrahim

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