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Estimating electric power consumption of in-situ residential heat pump systems: A data-driven approach
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1187-7065
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Applied Thermodynamics and Refrigeration.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4387-806x
Sustainable Thermal Energy Systems, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Giefinggasse 2, A-1210 Vienna, Austria.
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2023 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 352, article id 121971Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

International Energy Agency predicts that the global number of installed heat pumps (HP) will increase from 180 million in 2020 to approximately 600 million by 2030, covering 20% of buildings heating needs. Electric power consumption is one of the main key performance indicators for the heat pump systems from techno-economic perspective. However a common issue prevalent in many existing heat pumps is the lack of electric power measurement. The modern installations might be equipped with electric power measurement sensors but this comes at a higher system cost for the manufacturers and end-users. The primary objective of this work is to propose a virtual measurement for estimating power consumption, thereby eliminating the need for field measurement of power for heat pumps. To achieve the objective, a data-driven approach is proposed. Firstly, the in-situ data is preprocessed through data merging, cleaning, and normalization. Then, input features are pre-selected using Spearman correlation coefficients, and further refined by addressing multicollinearity problem. Following this, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models and polynomial models are developed by considering different features as inputs. All models are finally validated against the in-situ data from multi-units of ground source heat pump (GSHP) and air source heat pump (ASHP) installations. The results showed that the electric power consumption of GSHP can be estimated with high accuracy (99% for R2, 10 W for MAE, and 1% for MAPE) through generic data-driven models using only four easy-to-measure input features. Taking three input features as inputs for ASHP generic model, the accuracy can be reached to 83% for R2, 125 W for MAE, and 9% for MAPE. The method presented in this paper can be applied to estimate power consumption of millions of heat pumps and consequently add a significant value as well as provide different types of services, such as cost-saving benefits for manufacturers and end-users, flexibility services for aggregators and electricity grids.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2023. Vol. 352, article id 121971
Keywords [en]
Data driven, Electric power, Heat pump, Heating, Machine learning, Regression model
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-338357DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121971ISI: 001086100200001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85172678028OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-338357DiVA, id: diva2:1806259
Note

QC 20231115

Available from: 2023-10-20 Created: 2023-10-20 Last updated: 2024-09-16Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Data-Driven Strategies for Heat Pump Systems: A journey from inadequate data towards knowledge-based services
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Data-Driven Strategies for Heat Pump Systems: A journey from inadequate data towards knowledge-based services
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Integrating high-efficiency heat pumps to renewable electricity will significantly accelerate decarbonization progress. Despite the advancements in smart sensors and communication technologies that enhance data generation in heat pump units, much of this data remains underutilized for performance analysis. The primary issue is that the data often exhibits incompleteness, inconsistency, and inaccuracies. Consequently, data collection and storage impose an economic burden on manufacturers and end-users, and they have limited returns. This thesis aims to unlock the potential of various data resources, delivering knowledge-based services and addressing gaps in data availability and utilization.

The dissertation introduces the Data-Information-Knowledge-Service (DIKS) framework as an adaptation of the traditional Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom (DIKW) hierarchy, emphasizing the practical application of turning inadequate data into knowledge-based services in heat pump technologies. The transformative process within the DIKS pyramid is illustrated, detailing how each layer converts inadequate raw heat pump data into actionable, knowledge-based services. It begins with the aggregation and integration of various data types, followed by advanced processing techniques to refine data quality and identify significant patterns. This foundation of knowledge is then applied to improve heat pump services, demonstrating the practical benefits of this structured approach.

Five different scenarios are examined utilizing different types of data, including high-quantity, low-quality in-situ measurements, high-quality, low-quantity lab data, and technical specifications. The first scenario, utilizing in-situ field measurement data, develops an artificial neural network (ANN) model to create soft sensors that compensate for the absence of costly physical sensors in heat pump systems. These soft sensors use incomplete data to accurately estimate essential heat pump parameters, supporting functions like operational monitoring, fault detection, smart energy management, and developing digital twins. The second scenario, also utilizing in-situ field measurement data, focuses on models that prioritize minimal input features, enhancing models' usability across various installations. These models estimate power consumption effectively and compensate for the lack of physical power meters, thus facilitating network planning and smart control, etc. In the third scenario, transfer learning techniques are employed to estimate heat pump performance with limited lab data, particularly for natural refrigerants in the context of the phasing out the fluorinated refrigerants. This approach utilizes knowledge from existing refrigerant data to improve model reliability and accuracy, aiding in refrigerant selection. The fourth scenario develops polynomial regression models from technical specifications to evaluate heat pump performance without dynamic measurements. These models assist in tracking the system performance. The final scenario introduces semi-empirical models that use thermodynamic and heat transfer correlations to enhance the understanding of physical meaning. These models are designed with reduced parameters, improving services such as fault diagnosis and system maintenance.

In conclusion, this thesis identifies common status and key issues related to inadequate data from heat pump systems. Furthermore, this thesis proposes solutions to transfer inadequate data to useful structured information and develops data-driven models according to the characteristics of different data types. The models are validated against measurements, demonstrating accurate results. This thesis demonstrates the application of the DIKS framework to effectively harness underutilized inadequate data from heat pump systems, which not only provides insights to alleviate the economic burdens placed on manufacturers and/or users related to data cost but also enable the services of heat pump systems.

Abstract [sv]

Integreringen av högeffektiva värmepumpar med förnybar elektricitet förväntas påskynda minskningen av koldioxidutsläppen avsevärt. Trots framsteg inom smarta sensorer och kommunikationstekniker som förbättrar dataproduktionen i värmepumpsenheter, förblir mycket av denna värdefulla data outnyttjad och används främst för enklare övervaknings- och felvarningsfunktioner snarare än för omfattande analys. Det största problemet är att datan ofta brister i fullständighet, konsekvens och noggrannhet. Detta innebär att datainsamling och lagring är en ekonomisk börda för tillverkare och slutanvändare som inte utnyttjas. Denna avhandling syftar till att fullt ut utnyttja hela potentialen hos olika dataresurser, så att kunskapsbaserade tjänster kan levereras och att hantera saknade data.

Avhandlingen introducerar ramverket ``Data - Information-Knowledge-Service" (DIKS) som en anpassning av den traditionella hierarkin ``Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom" (DIKW), med betoning på den praktiska tillämpningen av att omvandla inadekvat data till kunskapsbaserade tjänster hos värmepumpssystem. Den transformerande processen inom DIKS-pyramiden illustreras och visar detaljerat hur varje lager kan omvandla otillräckliga rådata från värmepumpar till användningsbara, kunskapsbaserade tjänster. Ramverket börjar med sammanställning och integration av olika datatyper, följt av avancerade bearbetningstekniker för att förbättra datakvaliteten och identifiera signifikanta mönster. Denna kunskapsgrund tillämpas sedan för att förbättra värmepumptjänster, vilket visar de praktiska fördelarna med detta strukturerade tillvägagångssätt.

Fem olika scenarier undersöks med olika typer av av dataanvändning, inklusive stora mängder av data med låg kvalitet från fältmätningar, högkvalitativa data av låg kvantitet från laboratoriedata och slutligen katalogdata. Det första scenariot, som använder data från fältet, utvecklar modeller med hjälp av artificiella neurala nätverk (ANN) för att skapa mjuka sensorer som kompenserar för avsaknaden av kostsamma fysiska sensorer i värmepumpsystem. Dessa mjuka sensorer använder ofullständiga data för att uppskatta centrala värmepumpparametrar, vilket vidare stödjer funktioner som operativ övervakning, feldetektering, smart energihantering och utveckling av digitala tvillingar. Det andra scenariot, som också använder data från fältet, fokuserar på modeller som prioriterar minimala inmatningsfunktioner, vilket förbättrar modellernas användbarhet i olika installationer. Dessa modeller uppskattar effektförbrukningen effektivt och kompenserar för bristen av fysiska elmätare, vilket underlättar nätverksplanering och smart styrning för att spara energi. I det tredje modellscenariot används Transfer Learning (TL)-tekniker för att uppskatta värmepumpprestanda med begränsade laboratoriedata, särskilt för värmepumpar med kolvätebaserade köldmedier i samband med utfasning av fluorerade köldmedier. Denna metod använder kunskap från befintliga köldmediadata för att förbättra modellernas tillförlitlighet och noggrannhet, vilket kan hjälpa till med optimering och val av köldmedium. Det fjärde scenariot utvecklar polynomregressionsmodeller från katalogdata för att utvärdera värmepumpprestanda utan sensoravläsningar. 

Dessa modeller hjälper till att välja lämpliga värmepumpsmodeller och stödjer planering av nätkapacitet. Det sista scenariot introducerar semi-empiriska modeller som använder termodynamiska och värmeöverföringskorrelationer för att förbättra tolkningsbarheten av datadrivna modeller. Dessa modeller är designade med reducerade parametrar, vilket förbättrar tjänster som feldetektering och systemunderhåll. 

Sammanfattningsvis visar denna avhandling tillämpningen av DIKS-ramverket för att effektivt utnyttja underutnyttjad otillräcklig data från värmepumpssystem, och omvandla den till praktiska kunskapsbaserade tjänster. De utvecklade modellerna minskar inte bara de ekonomiska bördorna för tillverkare och/eller användare i samband med datakostnader, utan förbättrar också avsevärt tjänsterna för värmepumpssystem.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2024. p. 78
Series
TRITA-ITM-AVL ; 2024:18
Keywords
Heat pump, Heating, Data-driven, Machine Learning, Soft sensors, ANN, Regression, Semi-empirical model, Transfer Learning, Natural refrigerants
National Category
Energy Engineering
Research subject
Energy Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-353212 (URN)978-91-8106-042-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-10-11, Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 8 / https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/62634726841, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2024-09-17 Created: 2024-09-16 Last updated: 2024-10-11Bibliographically approved

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Song, YangPeskova, MonikaRolando, DavideMadani Larijani, Hatef

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