Filled pauses (or fillers), such as uh and um, are frequent in spontaneous speech and can serve as a turn-holding cue for the listener, indicating that the current speaker is not done yet. In this paper, we use the recently proposed Voice Activity Projection (VAP) model, which is a deep learning model trained to predict the dynamics of conversation, to analyse the effects of filled pauses on the expected turn-hold probability. The results show that, while filled pauses do indeed have a turn-holding effect, it is perhaps not as strong as could be expected, probably due to the redundancy of other cues. We also find that the prosodic properties and position of the filler has a significant effect on the turn-hold probability. However, contrary to what has been suggested in previous work, there is no difference between uh and um in this regard.