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Multi-agent simulation of the effects of Japanese electricity market policies on the low-carbon transition
SCS Lab, Department of Human and Engineered Environment, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Chiba 277-8563, Japan.
SCS Lab, Department of Human and Engineered Environment, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Chiba 277-8563, Japan; School of Economics and Management, Liaoning Petrochemical University, Liaoning 113001, China, Liaoning.
School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China.
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Applied Thermodynamics and Refrigeration.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7354-6643
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2024 (English)In: Energy Strategy Reviews, ISSN 2211-467X, E-ISSN 2211-4688, Vol. 52, article id 101333Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Market policies play a crucial role in facilitating the transition to a low-carbon society by restructuring the electricity market and influencing stakeholder behavior. Policymakers are concerned with how to implement these policies in terms of their intensity, combination, and timing. However, existing research lacks effective simulation tools that can accurately capture the impact of market policies on individual decision-making in the electricity sector, which is essential to represent the complex impacts of the policy mix. To address this gap, we present an agent-based model for analyzing the Low Carbon Transition (LCT) in the electricity sector. Using the Japanese electricity sector as a case study, we design various subsidies, incentives, and liberalization policy scenarios to evaluate the role of market policies in facilitating LCT. We observed that, within the Feed-in Premium (FIP) system, above a subsidy threshold of 2 JPY/kWh or 20% of the electricity cost leads to overcompensation, resulting in a stagnation of LCT promotion. To address this stagnation, it is imperative to not only enhance demand-side incentives, such as carbon taxes but also expedite the advancement of the free trade market to prevent market-induced stagnation. A synergistic implementation of these three policies is crucial for the most efficient progression of LCT.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2024. Vol. 52, article id 101333
Keywords [en]
Agent-based model, Electricity sector, Low-carbon transition, Market policy, Quantitative analysis
National Category
Public Administration Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-344176DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101333ISI: 001202779000001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85185845880OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-344176DiVA, id: diva2:1842896
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QC 20240503

Available from: 2024-03-06 Created: 2024-03-06 Last updated: 2025-02-21Bibliographically approved

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Madani Larijani, Hatef

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