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Consolidating backcasting: A design framework towards a users' guide
Univ Tokyo, Sch Engn, Dept Precis Engn, 7-3-1 Hongo,Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo, Japan..
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Strategic Sustainability Studies.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5327-6535
Delft Univ Technol, Fac Technol Policy Management, Jaffalaan 5, NL-2628 BX Delft, Netherlands..
2024 (English)In: Technological forecasting & social change, ISSN 0040-1625, E-ISSN 1873-5509, Vol. 202, p. 123285-, article id 123285Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Backcasting has become a widely applied approach to address sustainability challenges when transformative changes are required. However, dispersed and contextualized knowledge of backcasting methodologies and practices needs to be systematized, codified, and synthesized to support researchers, commissioners, practitioners, and stakeholders in backcasting projects. In this paper, we address these issues by (i) concisely reviewing the evolution and current body of literature on backcasting and how this relates to other major types of futures and scenario studies and (ii) developing a design framework for researchers and practitioners that systematically covers all methodological choices with regard to key guiding questions to develop a backcasting methodology for a particular backcasting project. The developed design framework is based on four parts, characterized by the interrogatives when, which, how, and what, creating a comprehensive framework for describing a backcasting study.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2024. Vol. 202, p. 123285-, article id 123285
Keywords [en]
Backcasting, Design framework, Futures studies, Sustainability transitions, Foresight
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-349687DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123285ISI: 001246230600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85187955757OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-349687DiVA, id: diva2:1881351
Note

QC 20240703

Available from: 2024-07-03 Created: 2024-07-03 Last updated: 2025-05-05Bibliographically approved

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Höjer, Mattias

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CiteExportLink to record
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