Bridging Accuracy and Explainability in Electricity Price Forecasting
2024 (English)In: 20th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2024 - Proceedings, IEEE Computer Society , 2024Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]
Electricity price forecasting is a critical aspect of energy market operations and investments, therefore, the development of new, more accurate forecast models is a continuous effort. However, the evaluation of forecasting models is typically limited to general accuracy metrics without a deep understanding of the underlying root causes of making these predictions, which limits their real world applicability in critical infrastructure. In this work, we extend two state-of-the-art data-driven forecast models to predict the day-ahead system prices of the NordPool market. The goal is to attribute the importance that the models give to the input features, and, with this, see if the cause-effect relationship learnt by the models is consistent with reality. When this is not the case, the reliability of these models in real-world applications, where forecasts inform downstream decision-making, cannot be trusted, despite their overall accuracy. The findings of this study indicate that, while generally precise, even state-of-the-art forecasting models face challenges in maintaining consistency with real-world conditions.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE Computer Society , 2024.
Keywords [en]
Deep Neural Network (DNN), Explainability, Lasso Estimate AutoRegressive (LEAR), Nord Pool
National Category
Computer Systems Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-352373DOI: 10.1109/EEM60825.2024.10608857Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85201380017OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-352373DiVA, id: diva2:1893083
Conference
20th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2024, Istanbul, Türkiye, Jun 10 2024 - Jun 12 2024
Note
QC 20240830; Part of ISBN [9798350381740]
2024-08-282024-08-282025-02-01Bibliographically approved