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Exploring Hospital Overcrowding with an Explainable Time-to-Event Machine Learning Approach
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3398-2296
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8178-9688
Uppsala Academic Hospital, Uppsala, Sweden.
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2024 (English)In: Studies in Health Technology and Informatics, ISSN 0926-9630, E-ISSN 1879-8365, Vol. 316, p. 678-682Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is a complex problem that is intricately linked with the operations of other hospital departments. Leveraging ED real-world production data provides a unique opportunity to comprehend this multifaceted problem holistically. This paper introduces a novel approach to analyse healthcare production data, treating the length of stay of patients, and the follow up decision regarding discharge or admission to the hospital as a time-to-event analysis problem. Our methodology employs traditional survival estimators and machine learning models, and Shapley additive explanations values to interpret the model outcomes. The most relevant features influencing length of stay were whether the patient received a scan at the ED, emergency room urgent visit, age, triage level, and the medical alarm unit category. The clinical insights derived from the explanation of the models holds promise for increase understanding of the overcrowding from the data. Our work demonstrates that a time-to-event approach to the over- crowding serves as a valuable initial to uncover crucial insights for further investigation and policy design.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IOS Press , 2024. Vol. 316, p. 678-682
Keywords [en]
Emergency Department, Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), Healthcare Systems, Machine Learning, real-world data, Survival analysis
National Category
Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-353489DOI: 10.3233/SHTI240505PubMedID: 39176833Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85202007643OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-353489DiVA, id: diva2:1899164
Note

QC 20240924

Available from: 2024-09-19 Created: 2024-09-19 Last updated: 2024-09-24Bibliographically approved

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Marzano, LucaKrishna, HarshaRaghothama, JayanthMeijer, SebastiaanDarwich, Adam S.

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Haraldsson, TobiasMarzano, LucaKrishna, HarshaRaghothama, JayanthMeijer, SebastiaanDarwich, Adam S.
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Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy

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