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A deep learning approach for rare event simulation in diffusion processes
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Probability, Mathematical Physics and Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9210-121X
Centre DLDS, Ashoka University, Haryana, India.
Department of Computer Science, Ashoka University, Haryana, India.
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers and University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
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2024 (English)In: 2024 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2024, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2024, p. 2559-2570Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

We address the challenge of estimating rare events associated with stochastic differential equations using importance sampling. The importance sampling zero variance measure in these settings can be inferred from a solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation (HJB-PDE) associated with a value function for the underlying process. Guided by this equation, we use a neural network to learn the zero variance change of measure. To improve performance of our estimation, we pursue two new ideas. First, we adopt a loss function that combines three objectives which collectively contribute to improving the performance of our estimator. Second, we embed our rare event problem into a sequence of problems with increasing rarity. We find that a well chosen schedule of rarity increase substantially speeds up rare event simulation. Our approach is illustrated on Brownian motion, Orstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) process as well as Langevin double-well diffusion.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2024. p. 2559-2570
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-360168DOI: 10.1109/WSC63780.2024.10838791Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85217618262OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-360168DiVA, id: diva2:1938785
Conference
2024 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2024, Orlando, United States of America, December 15-18, 2024
Note

Part of ISBN 9798331534202

QC 20250219

Available from: 2025-02-19 Created: 2025-02-19 Last updated: 2025-02-19Bibliographically approved

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Hult, Henrik

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf