A deep learning approach for rare event simulation in diffusion processesShow others and affiliations
2024 (English)In: 2024 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2024, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2024, p. 2559-2570Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]
We address the challenge of estimating rare events associated with stochastic differential equations using importance sampling. The importance sampling zero variance measure in these settings can be inferred from a solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation (HJB-PDE) associated with a value function for the underlying process. Guided by this equation, we use a neural network to learn the zero variance change of measure. To improve performance of our estimation, we pursue two new ideas. First, we adopt a loss function that combines three objectives which collectively contribute to improving the performance of our estimator. Second, we embed our rare event problem into a sequence of problems with increasing rarity. We find that a well chosen schedule of rarity increase substantially speeds up rare event simulation. Our approach is illustrated on Brownian motion, Orstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) process as well as Langevin double-well diffusion.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2024. p. 2559-2570
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-360168DOI: 10.1109/WSC63780.2024.10838791Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85217618262OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-360168DiVA, id: diva2:1938785
Conference
2024 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2024, Orlando, United States of America, December 15-18, 2024
Note
Part of ISBN 9798331534202
QC 20250219
2025-02-192025-02-192025-02-19Bibliographically approved