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Unveiling global flood hotspots: Optimized machine learning techniques for enhanced flood susceptibility modeling
Department of Computer Engineering, Chosun University, Gwangju 61452, Republic of Korea.
Department of Natural Resources, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.
Department of Geophysical Exploration, Korea University of Science and Technology, 217 Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34113, Republic of Korea, 217 Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7978-0040
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2025 (English)In: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, E-ISSN 2214-5818, Vol. 58, article id 102285Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Study region: Worldwide Study focus: Floods are among the most catastrophic and dangerous natural calamities globally, causing irreparable damage to human lives and property, and environmental degradation. Flood susceptibility mapping is a cost-effective tool to mitigate and manage the impacts of flood occurrences, but high accuracy in mapping is important to support management strategies. This study assessed the efficiency of three machine learning approaches, including support vector regression (SVR) and its optimized versions through combination with grey wolf optimizer (GWO) and whale optimization algorithm (WOA), in generating accurate flood susceptibility maps at a global scale. Data from 6682 historical flood events, covering eight flood-related geo-environmental factors were used to generate the maps. All maps produced were evaluated based on root mean square error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), standard deviation, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). New hydrological insights for the region: This study reveals that the SVR-GWO model has the best performance in predicting flood-prone areas worldwide based on AUC, RMSE and MSE. The findings indicate that approximately 17.14 % of global land area is highly and very highly susceptible to flood occurrence. Flood hot-spot countries were the United States of America (7.75 %), Indonesia (6.33 %), India (6.31 %), Brazil (5.33 %) and Nigeria (4.08 %). Countries with the lowest probability of flood occurrence were the Russian Federation, Canada, Greenland, the United States of America and China. Incorporating additional satellite-based environmental data could further enhance the model's accuracy. Furthermore, the approach sets a foundation for future research in tailoring flood prediction models to regional scales, addressing the diverse challenges posed by different geographic and environmental settings.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2025. Vol. 58, article id 102285
Keywords [en]
Flood modeling, Frequency ratio, Global scale, Machine learning, Optimization
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-361203DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102285Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85219435229OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-361203DiVA, id: diva2:1944158
Note

QC 20250313

Available from: 2025-03-12 Created: 2025-03-12 Last updated: 2025-03-13Bibliographically approved

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Kalantari, Zahra

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