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Predicting Distribution Reliability Indices based on exogenous data
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6745-4918
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electromagnetic Engineering and Fusion Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2964-7233
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electromagnetic Engineering and Fusion Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6779-4082
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3014-5609
2024 (English)In: IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe, ISGT EUROPE 2024, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2024Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Reliability indices like the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) and System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) serve as the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for Distribution System Operators (DSOs). They effectively measure the frequency and impact of outages on end users. Given the criticality of the electrical grid to many functions of the modern world, minimizing these values has been and continues to be a priority for DSOs. SAIDI and SAIFI can, however, be influenced by many factors including but not necessarily limited to the network topology, the type of installed components and the quantity of customers connected to the grid. In this work we thus attempt to predict the reliability indices of a DSO based on financial, customer and grid composition statistics reported to regulatory bodies by DSOs in Sweden between 2010 and 2021. By decomposing which features are the strongest predictors for SAIDI and SAIFI, DSOs can see how changes in their customer base and grid composition impact their reliability KPIs. In addition these indices can potentially be used to indicate which parts of the grid are most vulnerable to outages and thus prioritize mitigations at those locations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2024.
Keywords [en]
Machine Learning, Power System, Regression, Reliability
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-361450DOI: 10.1109/ISGTEUROPE62998.2024.10863381Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-86000012235OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-361450DiVA, id: diva2:1945880
Conference
2024 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe Conference, ISGT EUROPE 2024, Dubrovnik, Croatia, October 14-17, 2024
Note

Part of ISBN 9789531842976

QC 20250325

Available from: 2025-03-19 Created: 2025-03-19 Last updated: 2025-03-25Bibliographically approved

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Weiss, XavierHilber, PatrikDuvnjak Zarkovic, SanjaNordström, Lars

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