Reliability indices like the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) and System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) serve as the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for Distribution System Operators (DSOs). They effectively measure the frequency and impact of outages on end users. Given the criticality of the electrical grid to many functions of the modern world, minimizing these values has been and continues to be a priority for DSOs. SAIDI and SAIFI can, however, be influenced by many factors including but not necessarily limited to the network topology, the type of installed components and the quantity of customers connected to the grid. In this work we thus attempt to predict the reliability indices of a DSO based on financial, customer and grid composition statistics reported to regulatory bodies by DSOs in Sweden between 2010 and 2021. By decomposing which features are the strongest predictors for SAIDI and SAIFI, DSOs can see how changes in their customer base and grid composition impact their reliability KPIs. In addition these indices can potentially be used to indicate which parts of the grid are most vulnerable to outages and thus prioritize mitigations at those locations.
Part of ISBN 9789531842976
QC 20250325