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Forecasting electricity prices for intraday markets using machine learning
School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Peloponnese, Patras, Greece.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS).
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6000-9363
2024 (English)In: IET Conference Proceedings, p. 13-18Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper studies the problem of forecasting electricity prices in continuous short-term electricity markets, specifically focusing on the intraday volume-weighted average price of hourly products in the last three hours of trading. Two state-of-the-art recurrent neural network architectures, namely the Temporal Fusion Transformer and the DeepAR network, are compared against well-established statistical models, such as the Linear Regression-LR, ARX, and SARIMAX models, concerning their forecast accuracy. Historical electricity market and grid data from European Energy Exchanges were used to create a forecasting dataset and train and compare five different model structures stemming from traditional statistical methods or contemporary deep learning-based counterparts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) , 2024. p. 13-18
Keywords [en]
Electricity trading, intraday market, machine learning, price forecasting
National Category
Energy Systems Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-362690DOI: 10.1049/icp.2024.4630Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105002477017OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-362690DiVA, id: diva2:1954132
Conference
14th Mediterranean Conference on Power Generation Transmission, Distribution and Energy Conversion, MEDPOWER 2024, Athens, Greece, November 3-6, 2024
Note

QC 20250428

Available from: 2025-04-23 Created: 2025-04-23 Last updated: 2025-04-28Bibliographically approved

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Kotsias, Panagiotis-ChristosAmelin, Mikael

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf