kth.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Seasonal heatwave forecasting with explainable machine learning and remote sensing data
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering. Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm, Sweden.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering. Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3111-4583
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering. Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9408-4425
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm, Sweden.
Show others and affiliations
2025 (English)In: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment (Print), ISSN 1436-3240, E-ISSN 1436-3259Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Heatwaves can greatly impact societies, underscoring the need to extend current heatwave prediction lead times. This study investigates multiple machine learning (ML) model approaches for heatwave occurrence prediction with long lead times of one to five months. Five ML classifiers, built using Google Earth Engine remote sensing datasets, are developed and tested for heatwave prediction for the national scale (case example of Sweden) over time period 1989–2019. The ML modelling is based on 13 final explanatory atmospheric and landscape features. The balanced random forest model exhibits the consistently best performance among the tested ML models, stable across all investigated lead times (from one to five months) with balanced accuracy of around 0.77, even though not overall identifying actual heatwave occurrence (decreased recall for heatwave occurrence from 0.87 to 0.81). Application of SHapley Additive exPlanations technique for model interpretation shows increasing importance of model output with increasing lead time for landscape features such as runoff and soil water. Overall, more frequent heatwave occurrence emerges for places characterized by lower values of geopotential height, evaporation, precipitation, and topographical slope, and higher values of temperature, runoff, and sea level pressure. The study also exemplifies how the developed ML modelling approach could be used to identify and warn for early signs of forthcoming heatwave occurrence, and further step-wise improve the identification and warning toward less uncertainty for shorter lead times. This can facilitate earlier warning in support of better planning of measures to mitigate adverse heatwave impacts, up to several months ahead of their possible occurrence.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature , 2025.
Keywords [en]
Atmospheric climate factors, Explanatory-predictive factors, Geopotential height, Landscape factors, Machine-learning models, Summer heatwaves
National Category
Statistics in Social Sciences Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-364427DOI: 10.1007/s00477-025-03020-1ISI: 001502678700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105007344112OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-364427DiVA, id: diva2:1968243
Note

QC 20250615

Available from: 2025-06-12 Created: 2025-06-12 Last updated: 2025-06-15Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Kan, Jung-ChingPassos, Marlon VieiraDestouni, GeorgiaKalantari, Zahra

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Kan, Jung-ChingPassos, Marlon VieiraDestouni, GeorgiaKalantari, Zahra
By organisation
Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering
In the same journal
Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment (Print)
Statistics in Social SciencesOceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 11 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf