Dams are designed and assessed based on traditional factor of safety methodology. Several drawbacks of this approach exist; for example varying failure probability for structures where the factor of safety is the same. This traditional factor of safety methodology imposes conservative assumptions in terms of both design and analysis. A probability-based analysis has been suggested to account for the omission of uncertainties and provide a less conservative analysis (Westberg & Johansson, 2014). Through the stability analyses of three existing dam structures, a minimum level of reliability or maximum failure probability may be calculated with the ultimate goal of defining a target safety index (β-target) for buttress and gravity dams. These analyses shall in turn contribute to the formulation of a probability-based guideline for the design and assessment of Swedish concrete dams. This probability-based guideline shall be known as the ‘Probabilistic Model Code for Concrete Dams.’

The calculations carried out in this study adhere to the methodologies and specifications set out in the preliminary draft of the Probabilistic Model Code for Concrete Dams. These methodologies encompass analyses within two dominating failure modes for concrete dams; sliding stability and overturning stability. Various load combinations have been modelled for each dam structure to account for the probabilistic failure of each dam under commonly occurring circumstances.

A parametric study has been carried out in order to provide insight into the contribution that existing rock bolts provide to the stability of each dam. Furthermore, a study has been carried out into the existence of a persistent rock joint or failure plane in the rock foundation and the effects its presence would have on the sliding stability of a dam.

Finally a discussion had been carried out in order to provide suggestions into the formulation of a target safety index through the data envisaged by our analyses for the design and assessment of Swedish concrete dams.