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Swedish Wind Power Forecasts: Procedure, ErrorDistribution and Spacio-Temporal Correlation
KTH, Skolan för elektro- och systemteknik (EES), Elkraftteknik. (IRES)ORCID-id: 0000-0003-0685-0199
KTH, Skolan för elektro- och systemteknik (EES), Elkraftteknik. (IRES)
KTH, Skolan för elektro- och systemteknik (EES), Elkraftteknik. (IRES)
2017 (engelsk)Inngår i: 16th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, Berlin, 2017, artikkel-id WIW17-124Konferansepaper, Publicerat paper (Fagfellevurdert)
Abstract [en]

The stochastic nature of wind imposes challengeson accurate predictions of wind power generation. A goodunderstanding of the errors that may occur is imperativefor greater penetration of wind power into the system, asit can facilitate planning and operation tasks. In this paper,Swedish wind power forecast accuracy over the forecasthorizon is analyzed and compared among different biddingzones. The root-mean-square error trajectory over the horizonis shown for Sweden and its individual bidding areas. Inaddition, a significant systematic wind power under-predictionis identified and discussed. The paper continues to analyzethe wind power forecast error distribution with respect tothe horizon. Furthermore, the spacio-temporal correlationbetween the errors at different horizons and bidding areasis presented. As expected, a stronger correlation between theforecast errors is identified in neighboring areas.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Berlin, 2017. artikkel-id WIW17-124
Emneord [en]
wind power, wind energy, wind power integration, wind power forecasting
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Elektro- och systemteknik; Energiteknik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-222119OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-222119DiVA, id: diva2:1179409
Konferanse
16th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, Berlin/Germany, from 25 to 27 October 2017
Forskningsfinansiär
StandUp for Wind, 76178
Merknad

QC 20180228

Tilgjengelig fra: 2018-02-01 Laget: 2018-02-01 Sist oppdatert: 2018-03-07bibliografisk kontrollert

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fulltext(1138 kB)126 nedlastinger
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http://windintegrationworkshop.org/

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