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Algorithmic evaluation of Parameter Estimation for Hidden Markov Models in Finance
KTH, Skolan för teknikvetenskap (SCI), Matematik (Inst.), Matematisk statistik.
2014 (engelsk)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 poäng / 30 hpOppgave
Abstract [en]

Modeling financial time series is of great importance for being successful within the financial market. Hidden Markov Models is a great way to include the regime shifting nature of financial data. This thesis will focus on getting an in depth knowledge of Hidden Markov Models in general and specifically the parameter estimation of the models. The objective will be to evaluate if and how financial data can be fitted nicely with the model. The subject was requested by Nordea Markets with the purpose of gaining knowledge of HMM’s for an eventual implementation of the theory by their index development group. The research chiefly consists of evaluating the algorithmic behavior of estimating model parameters. HMM’s proved to be a good approach of modeling financial data, since much of the time series had properties that supported a regime shifting approach. The most important factor for an effective algorithm is the number of states, easily explained as the distinguishable clusters of values. The suggested algorithm of continuously modeling financial data is by doing an extensive monthly calculation of starting parameters that are used daily in a less time consuming usage of the EM-algorithm.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2014.
Serie
TRITA-MAT-E ; 2014:12
Emneord [en]
Hidden Markov Models, Parameter Estimation, Expectation Maximization
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-141187OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-141187DiVA, id: diva2:696772
Fag / kurs
Mathematical Statistics
Utdanningsprogram
Master of Science - Mathematics
Veileder
Examiner
Tilgjengelig fra: 2014-02-15 Laget: 2014-02-11 Sist oppdatert: 2022-06-23bibliografisk kontrollert

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