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Weather Variability and Travel Behaviour - What Do We Know and What Do We Not Know
KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik. (Transport Systems)ORCID-id: 0000-0001-6966-9077
KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-7124-7164
KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Systemanalys och ekonomi.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-5290-6101
(Engelska)Manuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Given that severe weather conditions is becoming more and more frequent, understanding the roles of weathers in influencing individual’s daily activity-travel pattern is important. Whilst some of previously rare events, such as heavy rain, unpredictable snow, higher temperature, less clear differences between seasons etc., would become more common, it is still largely unknown how individual would change and adapt their travel pattern in future climate conditions. Because of this concern, the number of researches on weather and travel behaviour has been increased dramatically in the recent decades. Most of those empirical evidences, however, have not been adopted in cost-benefit analysis (CBA), which serves as the main tool for policy evaluation and project selection by stakeholders. This study summarizes the existing findings in relations between weather variability and travel behaviour, and critically assesses the methodological issues in those studies. Several further research directions are identified and suggested for bridging the gap between empirical evidence and current practice in CBA.

Nyckelord [en]
weather; travel behaviour; large-scale transport model; transport policy; cost-benefit analysis
Nationell ämneskategori
Transportteknik och logistik
Forskningsämne
Transportvetenskap
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-187016OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-187016DiVA, id: diva2:928543
Anmärkning

QC 20160517

Tillgänglig från: 2016-05-16 Skapad: 2016-05-16 Senast uppdaterad: 2016-05-17Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. Understanding the Impacts of Weather and Climate Change on Travel Behaviour
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Understanding the Impacts of Weather and Climate Change on Travel Behaviour
2016 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Human behaviour produces massive greenhouse gas emissions, which trigger climate change and more unpredictable weather conditions. The fluctuation of daily weather corresponds to variations of everyday travel behaviour. This influence, although is less noticeable, can have a strong impact on the transport system. Specifically, the climate in Sweden is becoming warmer in the recent 10 years. However, it is largely unknown to what extent the change of travel behaviour would respond to the changing weather. Understanding these issues would help analysts and policy makers incorporate local weather and climate within our policy design and infrastructure management.

The thesis contains eight papers exploring the weather and climate impacts on individual travel behaviour, each addressing a subset of this topic. Paper I explores the weather impact on individual’s mode choice decisions. In paper II and III, individual’s daily activity time, number of trips/trip chains, travel time and mode shares are jointly modelled. The results highlight the importance of modelling activity-travel variables for different trip purposes respectively. Paper IV develops a namely nested multivariate Tobit model to model activity time allocation trade-offs. In paper V, the roles of weather on trip chaining complexity is explored. A thermal index is introduced to better approximate the effects of the thermal environment. In paper VI, the role of subjective weather perception is investigated. Results confirm that individuals with different socio-demographics would have different subjective weather perception even given similar weather conditions. Paper VII derives the marginal effects of weather variables on transport CO2 emissions. The findings show more CO2 emissions due to the warmer climate in the future. Paper VIII summaries the existing findings in relations between weather variability and travel behaviour, and critically assesses the methodological issues in previous studies. 

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2016. s. 217
Serie
TRITA-TSC-PHD ; 16-005
Nyckelord
impacts of weather, climate change, travel survey, spatial heterogeneity, activity-travel pattern, weather perception, passenger transport CO2 emission
Nationell ämneskategori
Transportteknik och logistik
Forskningsämne
Transportvetenskap
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-187019 (URN)978-91-87353-89-5 (ISBN)
Disputation
2016-06-10, L1, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, Lantmäteri, våningsplan 3, KTH Campus, Stockholm, 11:05 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Projekt
Understanding the complexity of changes of travelers’ activity-travel choices and related transport CO2 emissions due to the variation of weather and climate in Sweden (Centre för Transport Studie, projekt kod: 446)Understanding the impacts of weather and climate change on travel behavior (Centre för Transport Studie, projekt kod: 291)
Anmärkning

QC 20160516

Tillgänglig från: 2016-05-16 Skapad: 2016-05-16 Senast uppdaterad: 2016-05-16Bibliografiskt granskad

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Chengxi, LiuSusilo, Yusak O.Anders, Karlström

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Chengxi, LiuSusilo, Yusak O.Anders, Karlström
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Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknikSystemanalys och ekonomi
Transportteknik och logistik

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