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Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part two - Application
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2603-7595
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Applied Thermodynamics and Refrigeration.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7354-6643
2017 (English)In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 74, p. 1394-1404Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Part One in this two part paper identified Monte Carlo analysis as an improved approach over traditional deterministic techno-economic methods for solar PV prosumers in deregulated markets. In this paper a novel Monte Carlo methodology is described and demonstrated through a case study for the Swedish residential sector, which includes a review of relevant market, climate, and policy conditions, their use in determining inputs, and the probabilistic results. The probability of profitability (PoP) is introduced as an indicator in conjunction with result distributions. The results show that under current policy conditions, Swedish PV investors with well positioned buildings have a 71% chance of making a 3% real return on investment, and virtually no chance of losing their original investment. Without subsidies the PoP drops to 8%. In none of the simulated cases was any of the original investment lost. The PoP is most sensitive to the capital subsidy and the uncertainty of market based, long-term support is less critical to the chances of a successful investment. Given the current market conditions, Swedish PV prosumers can expect a return on investment. The decision to install will also depend on the probability of achieving their desired profitability, which Monte Carlo analysis quantifies well.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD , 2017. Vol. 74, p. 1394-1404
Keywords [en]
Solar PV, Techno-economic, Monte Carlo, Investment analysis, Probabilities, Sweden
National Category
Energy Systems Software Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-208715DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.010ISI: 000401492900097Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85015440142OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-208715DiVA, id: diva2:1108447
Note

QC 2017-06-12

Available from: 2017-06-12 Created: 2017-06-12 Last updated: 2022-06-27Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Solar PV in prosumer energy systems: A techno-economic analysis on sizing, integration, and risk
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Solar PV in prosumer energy systems: A techno-economic analysis on sizing, integration, and risk
2019 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In the transition towards a sustainable energy system, building mounted solar photovoltaics (PV) have unique benefits; they require no additional land and the energy is generated directly at load centers. Within residential buildings, multi-family homes (MFH) are particularly interesting because of the economies of scale and their greater potential for emissions reductions.

This thesis identifies and describes value propositions for solar PV within Swedish multi-family houses via three branches of inquiry; system sizing optimization, quantification of investment risk, and the techno-economic potential of PV/thermal (PVT) collectors integrated with ground source heat pumps (GSHP). Underpinning these investigations is a comprehensive review of technical and economic models for solar PV, resulting in a catalogue of performance indicators and applied techniques.

From the sizing analysis, no objective, techno-economically optimal PV system size is found without including the prosumer’s personal motives. Prioritizing return on investment results in small systems, whereas systems sized for net-zero energy can be profitable in some buildings. There is also a strong economic incentive to adopt communal electricity metering to increase self-consumption, system size, and economic return. Monte Carlo analysis is used to quantify investment uncertainty, finding that well-designed systems have an 81% chance of earning a 3% real return on investment, and even without subsidies there is a calculated 100% chance of having a positive return. PVT integrated GSHP can reduce the land needed for boreholes by up to 87% with a lower lifecycle cost than district heating, thereby broadening the heat pump market and reducing barriers to heating electrification.

The quantitative results provide guidance for Swedish MFH owners while the methodology presents solar PV value in a more useful manner for prosumers to identify their personal motives in decision making. This approach is also useful for researchers, business leaders, and policy makers to understand the prosumer perspective and promote adoption of PV in the built environment.

Abstract [sv]

I övergången mot ett hållbart energisystem har takmonterade solceller unika fördelar; de kräver ingen extra mark och elenergin genereras direkt där den behövs. Inom bostadssektorn är flerfamiljshus särskilt intressanta på grund av stordriftsfördelar och deras större möjlighet att bidra till minskade utsläpp.

Denna avhandling identifierar och beskriver värdeerbjudanden för solceller i svenska flerfamiljshus via tre frågeställningar; optimering av installationens storlek, kvantifiering av investeringsrisken och den teknisk-ekonomiska potentialen för PV/termiska (PVT) paneler integrerade med bergvärmepump. Analysen grundas på en omfattande genomgång av tekniska och ekonomiska modeller för solceller, vilket resulterar i en katalog över prestandaindikatorer och tillämpbara utvärderingstekniker.

I analysen av storlekens betydelse hittas inget objektiv, tekniskt-ekonomiskt optimalt system utan bästa storlek beror av prosumentens personliga motiv. Att prioritera avkastning på kapitalet ger mindre system, medan lägre krav kan ge större storlek som når netto-noll energi med godtagbar avkastning. Det finns också ett starkt ekonomiskt incitament att använda gemensam mätning av fastighets- och lägenhetsel för att öka egen-förbrukningen, systemstorleken och den ekonomiska avkastningen. Monte Carlo-analys har använts för att kvantifiera investeringarnas osäkerhet och visar att väl utformade system har 81% chans att ge 3% avkastning, och även utan subventioner finns en 100% chans att få positiv avkastning. Om PVT integreras med bergvärmepump kan markytan för borrhål minskas med upp till 87% och ge en lägre livscykelkostnad än fjärrvärme, vilket kan bredda värmepumpmarknaden och minska hindren för elektrifiering av uppvärmningen.

Resultaten ger vägledning för svenska husägare då metodiken ger verktyg att identifiera personliga motiv i beslutsfattandet. Metoden är också användbar för forskare, företagsledare och beslutsfattare för att förstå prosument-perspektivet och främja installationen av solceller i den byggda miljön.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2019. p. 109
Series
TRITA-ITM-AVL ; 2019:38
Keywords
Electrify everything, building energy systems, energy systems analysis, solar heat pump, investment analysis, Monte Carlo analysis, PVT, solar hybrid, Electrify everything, byggnadsenergisystem, energisystemanalys, solvärmepump, investeringsanalys, Monte Carlo analys, PVT, solhybrid
National Category
Energy Engineering Energy Systems
Research subject
Energy Technology; Planning and Decision Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-263896 (URN)978-91-7873-375-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2019-12-16, F3, Lindstedtsvägen 26, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2012-256Swedish Energy Agency, 40936-1
Available from: 2019-11-22 Created: 2019-11-19 Last updated: 2022-06-26Bibliographically approved

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Sommerfeldt, NelsonMadani Larijani, Hatef

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