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Risk analysis framework for severe accident mitigation strategy in nordic BWR: An approach to communication and decision making
KTH, Skolan för teknikvetenskap (SCI), Fysik, Kärnkraftssäkerhet.
KTH, Skolan för teknikvetenskap (SCI), Fysik, Kärnkraftssäkerhet.
KTH, Skolan för teknikvetenskap (SCI), Fysik, Kärnkraftssäkerhet.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-0683-9136
2017 (Engelska)Ingår i: International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017, American Nuclear Society , 2017, s. 587-594Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

Severe accident management (SAM) in Nordic boiling water reactors (BWRs) employ ex-vessel debris cooling in a deep water pool. The success of the strategy requires (i) formation of a coolable porous debris bed; (ii) no energetic steam explosion that can threaten containment integrity. Both scenario (aleatory) and modeling (epistemic) uncertainties are important in the assessment of the failure risks. A consistent approach is necessary for the decision making on whether the strategy is sufficiently effective, or a modification of the SAM is necessary. Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM+) is a tool for assessment of failure probability to enable robust decision making, insensitive to remaining uncertainty. Conditional containment failure probability is considered in this work as an indicator of severe accident management effectiveness for Nordic BWR. The ultimate goal of ROAAM+ application for Nordic BWR is to provide a scrutable background in order to achieve convergence of experts' opinions in decision making. The question is: if containment failure can be demonstrated as physically unreasonable, given severe accident management strategy and state-of-the-art knowledge? If inherent safety margins are large, then the answer to the question is positive and can be demonstrated through risk assessment with consistent conservative treatment of uncertainties and by improving, when necessary, knowledge and data. Otherwise, the risk management should be applied in order to increase margins and achieve the safety goal through modifications of the SAM (e.g. safety design, SAMGs, etc.). The challenge for a decision maker is to distinguish when collecting more knowledge and reduction of uncertainty in risk assessment or application of risk management with SAM modifications would be the most effective and efficient approach. In this work we demonstrate a conceptual approach for communication of ROAAM+ framework analysis results and provide an example of a decision support model. The results of the risk analysis are used in order to provide necessary insights on the conditions when suggested changes in the safety design are justified.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
American Nuclear Society , 2017. s. 587-594
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URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-230063Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85047811802ISBN: 9781510851801 (tryckt)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-230063DiVA, id: diva2:1216655
Konferens
2017 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017, 24 September 2017 through 28 September 2017
Anmärkning

QC 20180612

Tillgänglig från: 2018-06-12 Skapad: 2018-06-12 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-06-12Bibliografiskt granskad

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Grishchenko, DmitryKudinov, Pavel

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