Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Fluctuations in Arctic sea-ice extent: Comparing observations and climate models
KTH, Centres, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics NORDITA. Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
2018 (English)In: Philosophical Transactions. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering science, ISSN 1364-503X, E-ISSN 1471-2962, Vol. 376, no 2129, article id 20170332Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The fluctuation statistics of the observed sea-ice extent during the satellite era are compared with model output from CMIP5 models using a multifractal time series method. The two robust features of the observations are that on annual to biannual time scales the ice extent exhibits white noise structure, and there is a decadal scale trend associated with the decay of the ice cover. It is shown that (i) there is a large inter-model variability in the time scales extracted from the models, (ii) none of the models exhibits the decadal time scales found in the satellite observations, (iii) five of the 21 models examined exhibit the observed white noise structure, and (iv) the multi-model ensemble mean exhibits neither the observed white noise structure nor the observed decadal trend. It is proposed that the observed fluctuation statistics produced by this method serve as an appropriate test bed for modelling studies. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Royal Society Publishing , 2018. Vol. 376, no 2129, article id 20170332
Keywords [en]
Predictions, Sea ice, Stochastic processes, Forecasting, Random processes, Stochastic systems, Time measurement, Time series, White noise, Arctic sea ice, Decadal timescale, Modeling variability, Modelling studies, Multi-model ensemble, Noise structures, Satellite observations, Time series method, Climate models
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-236675DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2017.0332ISI: 000442108500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85052543726OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-236675DiVA, id: diva2:1262785
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 638-2013-9243
Note

Export Date: 22 October 2018; Article; Correspondence Address: Wettlaufer, J.S.; Yale UniversityUnited States; email: john.wettlaufer@yale.edu; Funding details: NNH13ZDA001N-CRYO, NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Funding details: 638-2013-9243, VR, Vetenskapsrådet; Funding text: Data accessibility. This article has no additional data. Competing interests. We declare we have no competing interests. Funding. The support of NASA grant NNH13ZDA001N-CRYO is acknowledged by both authors. J.S.W. acknowledges Swedish Research Council grant no. 638-2013-9243 and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award. Data for the CMIP5 models is publicly available and the sea-ice satellite observations are available from NSIDC.

Available from: 2018-11-13 Created: 2018-11-13 Last updated: 2018-11-13Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Wettlaufer, J. S.
By organisation
Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics NORDITA
In the same journal
Philosophical Transactions. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering science
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 324 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf