kth.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Exploring Wind Power Prognosis Data on Nord Pool: The Case of Sweden and Denmark
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems. (IRES)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0685-0199
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems. (IRES)
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems. (IRES)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4921-8345
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8189-2420
2019 (English)In: IET Renewable Power Generation, ISSN 1752-1416, E-ISSN 1752-1424, ISSN 1752-1416Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A good understanding of forecast errors is imperative for greater penetration of wind power, as it can facilitate planning and operation tasks. Oftentimes, public data is used for system studies without questioning or verifying its origin. In this paper, we propose a methodology to verify public data with the example of wind power prognosis published by Nord Pool. We focus on Swedish data and identify a significant bias that increases over the forecast horizon. In order to explore the origin of this bias, we first compare against Danish forecast and then describe the underlying structure behind the submission processes of this data. Based on the balance settlement structure, we reveal that Swedish "wind power prognoses" on Nord Pool are in fact rather wind production plans than technical forecasts. We conclude with the recommendation for improved communication and transparency with respect to terminology of public data on Nord Pool. We stress the importance for the research community to check publicly available input data before further use. Furthermore, the root-mean-square error and the spatio-temporal correlation between the errors in the bidding areas at different horizons is presented. Even with this compromised data, a stronger correlation is identified in neighbouring areas.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019.
Keywords [en]
wind power forecasts, forecast anaylsis
Keywords [sv]
vindkraftspognoser, analys av vindkraftsprognoser
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Energy Systems
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-241639DOI: 10.1049/iet-rpg.2018.5086ISI: 000462942900006Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85063728250OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-241639DiVA, id: diva2:1282265
Note

QC 20190124

Available from: 2019-01-24 Created: 2019-01-24 Last updated: 2022-06-26Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Demand Flexibility for the Simultaneous Provision of Multiple Services: Tapping the Potential of Controllable Electric Loads for Frequency Reserves and Energy Arbitrage
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Demand Flexibility for the Simultaneous Provision of Multiple Services: Tapping the Potential of Controllable Electric Loads for Frequency Reserves and Energy Arbitrage
2020 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Power systems with increasing shares of renewable energy sources require sufficient flexibility sources. One source of flexibility for future power systems is constituted by flexible electric loads. The concept of demand response captures the utilization of demand side flexibility to provide services to the power system. To efficiently exploit demand side flexibility, the need for, the potential of, and means to provide flexibility need to be quantified. This thesis provides an estimate of the need for flexibility, the potential of demand side flexibility, and, above all, the means of tapping the flexibility from controllable electric loads.

For a demand response provider, the most economic means of providing flexibility in wholesale electricity markets is to participate in several markets simultaneously and thereby provide multiple services. With a focus on the Nordic electricity markets, the simultaneous provision of energy arbitrage and frequency reserves poses as the most economic market portfolio for a demand response provider with storage type assets.Specifically, the methods developed in this thesis model a risk-averse demand response provider that aims to maximize its profit on the day-ahead by placing bids on the energy and frequency reserve markets.

The operational business of a demand response provider is illustrated by stochastic optimization of day-ahead bids under uncertainty from prices, temperatures, behavior, and model error.A general virtual battery model for simultaneous bidding in multiple day-ahead markets is developed for three applications; Thermostatically controlled loads (TCL), electric vehicles (EV), and a pulp and paper mill (PPM). The models can be used to assess the flexibility potential that a demand response provider can supply in a market based procurement of energy and reserves.Through application of the models to power system, price, temperature, and load data, the power and energy flexibility of the three studied load types are quantified.

This thesis contributes to the field of demand response research by providing decision support tools for demand response providers that participate in energy and frequency reserve (FCR-N) markets.The main focus of the developed algorithms is to facilitate optimal day-ahead bids for a risk-averse demand response provider under various sources of uncertainty. Additionally, the sensitivity to market timing, such as lead time and contract period, is investigated.

A significant potential of approximately 2.0 GW FCR-N capacity and 15.0 GWh energy flexibility is found in the Swedish power system, that can be exploited given the necessary communication infrastructure. The amount of flexibility, as well as the profitability of a demand response provider, is highest with short lead times and contract periods.

Abstract [sv]

Ett elkraftsystem med en ökande andel förnybara energikällor kräver tillräckligt med flexibilitet. En typ av flexibilit för framtidens elkraftsystem utgörs av flexibel elförbrukning. Begreppet efterfrågesvar beskriver användningen av efterfrågeflexibilitet för att tillhandahålla tjänster till elkraftsystemet. För att effektivt utnyttja flexibiliteten på efterfrågesidan måste behovet av, potentialen för och metoder för att tillhandahålla flexibilitet kvantifieras. Denna avhandling ger en uppskattning av behovet av flexibilitet, potentialen för efterfrågeflexibilitet och framför allt metoder för att använda flexibiliteten från styrbara elförbrukningar.

För en leverantör av efterfrågesvar är det mest ekonomiska sättet att tillhandahålla flexibilitet på elmarknaderna att delta på flera marknader samtidigt och därmed tillhandahålla multitjänster. Med fokus på de nordiska elmarknaderna utgör det samtidiga tillhandahållandet av energiarbitrage och frekvensreserver den mest ekonomiska marknadsportföljen för en efterfrågesvarleverantör med tillgångar av lagringstyp. Specifikt är de metoder som utvecklats i denna avhandling tillämpliga för en riskobenägen leverantör av efterfrågesvar som syftar till att maximera sin vinst för nästa dag genom att lägga bud på energi- och frekvensreservmarknaderna.

Den operativa verksamheten hos en leverantör av efterfrågesvar beskrivs genom stokastisk optimering av buden under osäkerhet från priser, temperaturer, beteenden och modellfel. En generell virtuell batterimodell för samtidig budgivning på flera marknader i dag framåt är utvecklad för tre tillämpningar; Termostatstyrda laster (TCL), elektriska fordon (EV) och ett massa- och pappersbruk (PPM). Modellerna kan användas för att utvärdera flexibilitetspotentialen som en leverantör av efterfrågesvar kan tillhandahålla i en marknadsbaserad upphandling av energi och reserver. Genom tillämpning av modellerna på elkraftsystem, pris, temperatur och lastdata kvantifieras potentialen och energiflexibiliteten hos de tre studerade lasttyperna.

Denna avhandling bidrar till området efterfrågesvarforskning genom att tillhandahålla beslutsstödverktyg för leverantörer av efterfrågesvar som deltar i energi- och frekvensreservmarknader (FCR-N). Huvudfokus för de utvecklade algoritmerna är att möjliggöra optimala framtida bud för en riskobenägen leverantör av efterfrågesvar under olika osäkerhetskällor. Dessutom undersöks inverkan av marknadsparametrar , såsom ledtid och avtalsperiod.

En betydande potential på cirka 2,0 GW FCR-N effektflexibilitet och 15,0 GWh energiflexibilitet finns i det svenska kraftsystemet, som kan utnyttjas förutsatt en tillgång på nödvändig kommunikationsinfrastruktur. Mängden flexibilitet, liksom lönsamheten hos en leverantör av efterfrågesvar, är högst vid kort ledtid och avtalsperiod.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm, Sweden: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2020. p. 82
Series
TRITA-EECS-AVL ; TRITA-EECS-AVL-2020:35
Keywords
aggregator, chance constrained optimisation, demand response, de-mand response provider, demand side management, frequency reserves, load control, stochastic optimization, aggregator, riskbegränsad optimering, efterfrågestyrning, leverantör av efterfrågesvar, efterfrågeflexibilitet, frekvensreserver, laststyrning, stokastisk optimering.
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-279070 (URN)978-91-7873-569-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2020-09-08, Kollegiesalen eller via zoom: https://kth-se.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_3mOiNLURQzao2UdGwTNb2A, Brinellvägen 8,100 28 Stockholm, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 76178
Note

QC 20200814

Available from: 2020-08-14 Created: 2020-08-13 Last updated: 2022-06-26Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopushttps://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/10.1049/iet-rpg.2018.5086

Authority records

Herre, LarsMatusevičius, TadasOlauson, JonSöder, Lennart

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Herre, LarsMatusevičius, TadasOlauson, JonSöder, Lennart
By organisation
Electric Power and Energy Systems
In the same journal
IET Renewable Power Generation
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information EngineeringEnergy Systems

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 1042 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf