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Forecasting Ranking in Harness Racing Using Probabilities Induced by Expected Positions
KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Fastigheter och byggande, Bygg- och fastighetsekonomi.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-4454-474X
KTH, Skolan för teknikvetenskap (SCI), Matematik (Inst.), Matematisk statistik.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-6684-8088
KTH, Skolan för teknikvetenskap (SCI), Matematik (Inst.).ORCID-id: 0000-0003-1489-8512
2019 (engelsk)Inngår i: Applied Artificial Intelligence, ISSN 0883-9514, E-ISSN 1087-6545, Vol. 33, nr 2, s. 171-189Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Ranked events are pivotal in many important AI-applications such as Question Answering and recommendations systems. This paper studies ranked events in the setting of harness racing. For each horse there exists a probability distribution over its possible rankings. In the paper, it is shown that a set of expected positions (and more generally, higher moments) for the horses induces this probability distribution. The main contribution of the paper is a method, which extracts this induced probability distribution from a set of expected positions. An algorithm is proposed where the extraction of the induced distribution is given by the estimated expectations. MATLAB code is provided for the methodology. This approach gives freedom to model the horses in many different ways without the restrictions imposed by for instance logistic regression. To illustrate this point, we employ a neural network and ordinary ridge regression. The method is applied to predicting the distribution of the finishing positions for horses in harness racing. It outperforms both multinomial logistic regression and the market odds. The ease of use combined with fine results from the suggested approach constitutes a relevant addition to the increasingly important field of ranked events.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC , 2019. Vol. 33, nr 2, s. 171-189
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URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-245167DOI: 10.1080/08839514.2018.1536105ISI: 000458323800005Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85055740089OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-245167DiVA, id: diva2:1294371
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QC 20190307

Tilgjengelig fra: 2019-03-07 Laget: 2019-03-07 Sist oppdatert: 2022-06-26bibliografisk kontrollert

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Armerin, FredrikHallgren, JonasKoski, Timo

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