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Impact of High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy on Power System Generation Adequacy: Methods for analyzing and ensuring the generation adequacy of modern, multi-area power systems
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems. (Integration of Renewable Sources (IRES))ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9990-2394
2020 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The generation adequacy of electricity supply has been an ongoing concern since the restructuring of the industry. Ensuring generation adequacy was a rather straightforward task in the era of natural monopolies. Whose responsibility was it to ensure generation adequacy as the industry became deregulated and more fragmented? Who is willing to finance rarely used generating units? After decades of experience with the competitive electricity market, the question of whether market forces alone are sufficient to ensure generation adequacy still remains.

Recent energy policies have moreover set a goal of a high share of renewable energy in electricity markets. The presence of high levels of renewable generation makes the supply side of the market more uncertain. This volatility in energy production induces volatility in energy prices which means that the revenue stream of conventional generating technologies is more uncertain than it has traditionally been. This can even deteriorate the economics of some generators to the point where they exit the electricity market. The installed capacity of dispatchable generation can therefore be reduced.

These developments bring up the question of whether the generation adequacy of modern and future, deregulated and highly variable power systems is ensured. This dissertation focuses on modeling the generation adequacy of modern power systems with a high penetration of variable renewable energy sources. Moreover, the dissertation looks at some solutions with the aim of ensuring the generation adequacy of such systems through various means such as coordinated reserves, energy storage as well as utilizing the flexibility of the demand side of the market.

The models developed in this dissertation are verified using well-known test systems as well as through large-scale analysis of real-world systems. Aside from focusing on the simulation of power systems, the developed models moreover focus on achieving high computational efficiency. This is done through means such as advanced Monte Carlo simulation and optimization methods that apply decomposition to speed up the simulations.

Abstract [sv]

Elförsörjningens leveranssäkerhet har varit en källa till oro alltsedan avregleringen av elmarknaden. Att säkerställa produktionens leveranssäkerhet var en ganska enkel uppgift i de tidigare naturliga monopolen. Vems ansvar var det att säkerställa produktionens leveranssäkerhet när industrin blev avreglerad och mer fragmenterad? Vem är villig att finansiera sällan använda produktionsenheter? Efter decennier av erfarenhet av den konkurrensutsatta elmarknaden kvarstår fortfarande frågan om marknadskrafterna är tillräckliga för att säkerställa produktionens leveranssäkerhet.

Energipolitiken i många länder har dessutom satt upp mål för en hög andel förnybar energi på elmarknaderna. Höga nivåer av förnybar produktion gör marknadens utbudssida mer osäker. Denna volatilitet i produktionen inducerar volatilitet i elpriser, vilket innebär att inkomsterna för konventionella produktionstekniker blir mer osäkra än tidigare. Detta kan försämra ekonomin hos vissa generatorer till den grad att de lämnar elmarknaden. Därför kan den installerade kapaciteten för kontrollerbar produktion reduceras.

Denna utveckling väcker frågan om i vilken utsträckning produktionens leveranssäkerhet kan säkerställas i framtida, avreglerade elkraftsystem med hög andel variabel elproduktion. Denna avhandling fokuserar på att modellera produktionens leveranssäkerhet för moderna kraftsystem med en hög andel variabla förnybara energikällor. Avhandlingen tittar dessutom på några lösningar i syfte att säkerställa leveranssäkerheten i sådana system genom olika medel som samordnade reserver, energilagring samt att utnyttja flexibilitet på marknadens efterfrågesida.

Modellerna som utvecklas i denna avhandling verifieras av välkända testsystem samt genom storskalig analys av befintliga kraftsystem. Förutom att fokusera på simulering av kraftsystem fokuserar de utvecklade modellerna dessutom på att uppnå hög beräkningseffektivitet. Detta görs genom medel som avancerad Monte Carlo-simulering och optimeringsmetoder som tillämpar dekomposition för att öka effektiviteten av simuleringarna.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm, Sweden: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2020. , p. 171
Series
TRITA-EECS-AVL ; 2020:29
Keywords [en]
Generation adequacy, reliability, renewable energy, Monte Carlo simulation, electricity markets, optimization, mathematical programming
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-273328ISBN: 978-91-7873-542-6 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-273328DiVA, id: diva2:1430162
Public defence
2020-06-10, N/A (Via videolink due to Corona virus), 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20200515

Available from: 2020-05-15 Created: 2020-05-13 Last updated: 2020-05-15Bibliographically approved

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