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Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways: Challenges and benefits
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8371-9325
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2022 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 258, p. 124329-124329, article id 124329Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The envisaged reductions of direct greenhouse gases emissions are seen as technically feasible, but if a wrong path is pursued, significant unintended impacts across borders, sectors, societies and ecosystems may follow. Without the insights gained from an impact assessment framework reaching beyond the techno-economic perspective, the pursuit of direct emission reductions may lead to counterproductive outcomes in the long run. We discuss the opportunities and challenges related to the creation and use of an integrated assessment framework built to inform the European Commission on the path to decarbonisation. The framework is peculiar in that it goes beyond existing ones in its scope, depth and cross-scale coverage, by use of numerous specialised models and case studies. We find challenges of consistency that can be overcome by linking modelling tools iteratively in some cases, harmonising modelling assumptions in others, comparing model outputs in others. We find the highest added value of the framework in additional insights it provides on the technical feasibility of decarbonisation pathways, on vulnerability aspects and on unintended environmental and health impacts on national and sub-national scale.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2022. Vol. 258, p. 124329-124329, article id 124329
Keywords [sq]
Decarbonisation pathways, Impact assessment, Modelling framework, Multi-model, European Green Deal
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Land and Water Resources Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-316822DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124329ISI: 000848556700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85135500244OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-316822DiVA, id: diva2:1691860
Projects
REEEM
Funder
European CommissionStandUp
Note

QC 20220831

Available from: 2022-08-31 Created: 2022-08-31 Last updated: 2022-09-21Bibliographically approved

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Gardumi, FrancescoAvgerinopoulos, GeorgiosMörtberg, UllaPang, Xi

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Gardumi, FrancescoKeppo, I.Avgerinopoulos, GeorgiosMartišauskas, L.Fahl, U.Schmid, D.Syri, S.Mörtberg, UllaBalyk, O.Pang, XiMozgeris, G.Trubins, R.Mikulić, M.
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