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Estimation of small failure probabilities using the Accelerated Weight Histogram method
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Physics, Condensed Matter Theory.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9881-7857
Itasca Consultants AB, Aurorum 2, Luleå, 977 75, Sweden.
Itasca Consultants AB, Aurorum 2, Luleå, 977 75, Sweden.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Soil and Rock Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5372-7519
2023 (English)In: Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, ISSN 0266-8920, E-ISSN 1878-4275, Vol. 74, article id 103501Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Simulation of rare events, such as small failure probabilities, is a common problem in several scientific and engineering fields. This paper presents a novel Monte-Carlo-based simulation approach for this purpose, called the Accelerated Weight Histogram (AWH) method. The method was originally developed to solve challenging sampling problems in statistical and biological physics, but its algorithm has here been reformulated for estimation of rare event probabilities. The applicability of the method is investigated for a couple of simpler computational examples and for a more advanced practical case, which consists of a rock tunnel stability problem. To estimate the probability of failure of the latter in a realistic manner, a boolean indicator function was used to describe failure, based on a mechanical concept known as unbalanced force ratio. The investigated cases indicate that the AWH method performs well for both simpler limit states and more complex failure definitions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2023. Vol. 74, article id 103501
Keywords [en]
Monte Carlo simulation, Rare event simulation, Reliability-based design, Structural safety, Tunnel
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-334943DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2023.103501ISI: 001070965000001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85168411217OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-334943DiVA, id: diva2:1792713
Note

QC 20230830

Available from: 2023-08-30 Created: 2023-08-30 Last updated: 2023-10-16Bibliographically approved

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Lidmar, JackSpross, Johan

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