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Dirichlet Distribution for Tunnel Construction Class Proportions in Probabilistic Time and Cost Estimations
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Soil and Rock Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5372-7519
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Physics, Condensed Matter Theory.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9881-7857
2023 (English)In: GEO-RISK 2023: DEVELOPMENTS IN RELIABILITY, RISK, AND RESILIENCE / [ed] Najjar, S Medina-Cetina, Z Ching, J, AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS , 2023, Vol. 346, p. 111-120Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The construction of rock tunnels is inherently associated with large geotechnical uncertainty, which not only affects the structural safety and other design requirements but also causes challenges in meeting time plans and budgets. Time and cost estimations of tunnel projects are however still mainly deterministic. The introduction of the contractual document called Geotechnical Baseline Report highlights, however, a need for clients and contractors to address how geotechnical uncertainty affects time and cost estimations. Using probabilistic time and cost estimation methods, a key parameter is the proportion of different construction classes along the tunnel. This paper introduces the Dirichlet distribution (a.k.a. multivariate beta distribution) as a suitable probabilistic model for this epistemic uncertainty and discusses its potential for Bayesian updating and risk assessments of Geotechnical Baseline Reports.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS , 2023. Vol. 346, p. 111-120
Series
Geotechnical Special Publication, ISSN 0895-0563
National Category
Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-335863DOI: 10.1061/9780784484982.012ISI: 001043368000012Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85170106679OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-335863DiVA, id: diva2:1795772
Conference
Conference on Geo-Risk - Advances in Theory and Innovation in Practice, JUL 23-26, 2023, Arlington, VA, United States of America
Note

Part of ISBN 978-0-7844-8498-2

QC 20230911

Available from: 2023-09-11 Created: 2023-09-11 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Spross, JohanLidmar, Jack

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