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Minute Resolution Multi-Area Wind Power Simulation to Estimate Future Reserve Needs
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2789-0096
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8189-2420
Svenska Kraftnät, Syst Dev, Sundbyberg, Sweden..
2023 (English)In: 2023 IEEE BELGRADE POWERTECH, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2023Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Increasing penetration of wind power poses challenges to power system balancing due to the uncertainty and variability of wind power generation. In wind integration studies, it is hence important to consider the need of balancing power caused by wind power. In this paper, we propose a new model to simulate minute resolution wind power time series in multi-area power systems, that allows for estimation of the additional need of reserves caused by wind power in future scenarios. The model is based on first simulating forecast uncertainty using a multidimensional autoregressive moving average model, and then simulating the variability by adding an autoregressive time series to a cubic spline interpolation. The model is found to generate scenarios of minute resolution wind power generation that are sufficiently realistic for long-term scenario studies. The model output can be used for analysing future reserve requirements or for scenario generation for stochastic optimisation of future power systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2023.
Keywords [en]
Wind power, Forecast error simulation, Minute resolution, Future scenarios, Power system reserves
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-338156DOI: 10.1109/POWERTECH55446.2023.10202966ISI: 001055072600288Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85159225407OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-338156DiVA, id: diva2:1805206
Conference
IEEE Belgrade PowerTech Conference, JUN 25-29, 2023, Belgrade, SERBIA
Note

Part of ISBN 978-1-6654-8778-8

QC 20231016

Available from: 2023-10-16 Created: 2023-10-16 Last updated: 2023-10-16Bibliographically approved

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Nordström, HenrikSöder, Lennart

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  • apa
  • ieee
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  • de-DE
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Output format
  • html
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  • asciidoc
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