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Incorporation of Departure Time Choice in a Mesoscopic Transportation Model for Stockholm
KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transporter och samhällsekonomi (stängd 20110301). (CTR)ORCID-id: 0000-0002-3738-9318
2009 (Engelska)Licentiatavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Travel demand management policies such as congestion charges encourage car-users to change among other things route, mode and departure time. Departure time may be especially affected by time-varying charges, since car-users can avoid high peak hour charges by travelling earlier or later, so called peak spreading effects. Conventional transport models do not include departure time choice as a response. For evaluation of time-varying congestion charges departure time choice is essential.

In this thesis a transport model called SILVESTER is implemented for Stockholm. It includes departure time, mode and route choice. Morning trips, commuting as well as other trips, are modelled and time is discretized into fifteen-minute time periods. This way peak spreading effects can be analysed. The implementation is made around an existing route choice model called CONTRAM, for which a Stockholm network already exists. The CONTRAM network has been in use for a long time in Stockholm and an origin-destination matrix calibrated against local traffic counts and travel times guarantee local credibility. On the demand side, an earlier developed departure time and mode choice model of mixed logit type is used. It was estimated on CONTRAM travel times to be consistent with the route choice model. The behavioural response under time-varying congestion charges was estimated from a hypothetical study conducted in Stockholm.

Paper I describes the implementation of SILVESTER. The paper shows model structure, how model run time was reduced and tests of convergence. As regards run time, a 75% cut down was achieved by reducing the number of origin-destination pairs while not changing travel time and distance distributions too much.

In Paper II car-users underlying preferred departure times are derived using a method called reverse engineering. This method derives preferred departure times that reproduce as well as possible the observed travel pattern of the base year. Reverse engineering has previously only been used on small example road networks. Paper II shows that application of reverse engineering to a real-life road network is possible and gives reasonable results.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2009. , s. 25
Serie
TRITA-TEC-LIC, ISSN 1653-445X ; 09-001
Nyckelord [en]
Transport Modelling, Departure Time Choice, Dynamic Traffic Simulation, Time-Varying Congestion Charges, Peak Spreading, Reverse Engineering
Nationell ämneskategori
Samhällsbyggnadsteknik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-10516ISBN: 978-91-85539-39-0 (tryckt)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-10516DiVA, id: diva2:218664
Presentation
2009-06-04, V3, KTH, Teknikringen 72, Stockholm, 10:00 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Projekt
Silvester
Anmärkning

QC 20170222

Tillgänglig från: 2009-05-26 Skapad: 2009-05-20 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-02-22Bibliografiskt granskad
Delarbeten
1. A Dynamic Transportation Model for the Stockholm Area: Implementation Issues Regarding Departure Time Choice and OD-pair Reduction
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>A Dynamic Transportation Model for the Stockholm Area: Implementation Issues Regarding Departure Time Choice and OD-pair Reduction
2009 (Engelska)Ingår i: Networks and Spatial Economics, ISSN 1566-113X, E-ISSN 1572-9427, Vol. 9, nr 4, s. 551-573Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Road traffic congestion is an increasing problem in urban areas. Building new roads often attracts latent demand and turns parts of the city into building sites for several years. Policy measures that stimulate more effective use of the existing network, such as variable road pricing, are therefore becoming increasingly popular among policy makers and citizens. These measures are often aimed at changing the temporal distribution of traffic. Yet transportation models taking departure time choice into account are rare. This paper describes the implementation of an urban transportation application for Stockholm, which includes departure time choice, mode choice and time dependent network assignment. Through iterations between demand and supply the objective of the transportation model is to forecast effects of congestion charges, intelligent transport systems and infrastructure investments on departure time choice. The complexity of large-scale departure time choice modelling and dynamic traffic assignment is high, which results in very long run times. Therefore, research on how to increase model efficiency is needed. This paper describes choices made in the implementation for a more efficient model.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Springer, 2009
Nyckelord
Transportation model, Departure time choice, Mixed logit, Dynamic traffic simulation, Peak-spreading, Congestion charges
Nationell ämneskategori
Transportteknik och logistik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-10512 (URN)10.1007/s11067-009-9104-0 (DOI)000273113200004 ()2-s2.0-84876092611 (Scopus ID)
Projekt
silvester
Anmärkning
QC 20100823Tillgänglig från: 2009-05-20 Skapad: 2009-05-20 Senast uppdaterad: 2020-03-10Bibliografiskt granskad
2. Estimating preferred departure times of road users in a real-life network
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Estimating preferred departure times of road users in a real-life network
2008 (Engelska)Ingår i: Proceedings of the  European Transport Conference 2008, 2008Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

The demand for travel continues to increase in European cities of today, which results in long car travel times and highly congested road networks, especially during the morning and afternoon peak periods. The congested car system gives rise to high emissions of particles and greenhouse-gases, which is negative for both the local and global environment. Congestion also causes an uncertain travel time, something that in the latest years has been recognised as a major factor in car-users perception of trip disutility. Congestion is time-dependent in nature. Therefore, not only the spatial distribution of trips over the network is important in analysis and prediction, but also the temporal distribution of trips. A traditional congestion-relieving strategy such as a capacity expansion often has an impact on when people travel, since shorter travel times during the peak hour can attract traffic from the peak shoulders. The temporal effects are even more pronounced for the new policy measures gaining ground today, e.g. variable road pricing. Most variable road pricing systems aim at moving traffic from the peak hour to the peak shoulders, so called peak spreading. The means by which this is done is by charge differentiation: it is most expensive to travel at the most congested point in time. However, most large-scale transport planning models in use today are static and changes in the temporal distribution of trips are not considered. It is therefore likely that false conclusions are drawn when using these models to evaluate the ability of different pricing schemes or infrastructure investments to alleviate congestion.SILVESTER – A Dynamic Transport ModelTo better model the temporal distribution of traffic has been the basis in the development of SILVESTER (SImuLation of choice betWEen Sarting TimEs and Routes), which is a dynamic transport model for the Stockholm area. In SILVESTER road network conditions during the extended morning peak period (06:30-09:30) are modelled. The morning is divided into twelve 15-minute time intervals and a departure time choice model allocates trips to each interval depending on their attractiveness. The attractiveness of a time interval is determined by its corresponding travel time, travel time uncertainty, monetary cost and how close it is to the preferred time interval (PDT) of the traveller. The travellers can also choose to start before 06:30 or after 09:30. Mode choice is partially modelled by introducing the possibility for car-users to switch to public transport if it is perceived as a better option than any of the time intervals. It is distinguished between three trip purposes: business trips, trips with fixed schedule and school trips, and trips with flexible schedule and other trips. In SILVESTER iteration towards a general equilibrium between supply and demand is performed. The supply quantities (travel times, uncertainties etc.) are calculated with the mesoscopic dynamic traffic assignment model CONTRAM, whereas the demand for each time interval and public transport alternative is calculated with a mixed logit discrete choice model. A calibrated origin-destination-matrix (OD-matrix) for the Stockholm CONTRAM network exists and is based mainly on traffic counts but also on travel times for some selected OD-pairs. Calibration of Preferred Departure TimesEven though many trip-timing models use the concept of schedule delay, which is defined as the deviation from a preferred departure/arrival time, little work has been done on how to find the PDT-distribution when applying the model. For estimation the survey respondents can be asked to state their preferred time of travel, but for large-scale applications similar studies are expensive and time consuming. Previous work has often assumed a simplified distribution, such as all travellers in a market segment having the same PDT. Without calibration of PDT’s, e.g. using only a simplified exogenous assumption, the predictive capability of the transport model is questionable. Instead of making an exogenous assumption about the PDT-distribution this paper uses a reverse engineering approach to reveal PDT’s from the observed departure times of the reference situation. It is the combination of the estimated departure time choice model, the travel conditions and the observed departure times that can be used to get information about the PDT’s. Once the PDT’s have been calibrated for the reference situation they can be used in the evaluation of a congestion relieving strategy. This paper will present calibration methodology, obstacles overcome on the way and calibration results. It will also discuss future work in which the calibrated departure time choice model will be used to improve the design (charge levels and time periods) of a pricing scheme.

Nationell ämneskategori
Samhällsbyggnadsteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-10514 (URN)
Konferens
European Transport Conference 2008, 6-8 October 2008, Leeuwenhorst Conference Centre/ The Netherlands
Projekt
silvester
Anmärkning
QC 20101015.Tidigare titel: "Deriving Preferred Departure Times of Road-Users in a Real-Life Network".Tillgänglig från: 2009-05-20 Skapad: 2009-05-20 Senast uppdaterad: 2011-10-19Bibliografiskt granskad

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