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A method for predicting the probability of business network profitability
KTH, Skolan för elektro- och systemteknik (EES), Industriella informations- och styrsystem.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-3293-1681
KTH, Skolan för elektro- och systemteknik (EES), Industriella informations- och styrsystem.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-1464-6163
Vise andre og tillknytning
2014 (engelsk)Inngår i: Information Systems and E-Business Management, ISSN 1617-9846, E-ISSN 1617-9854, Vol. 12, nr 4, s. 567-593Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

In the design phase of business collaboration, it is desirable to be able to predict the profitability of the business-to-be. Therefore, techniques to assess qualities such as costs, revenues, risks, and profitability have been previously proposed. However, they do not allow the modeler to properly manage uncertainty with respect to the design of the considered business collaboration. In many real collaboration projects today, uncertainty regarding the business' present or future characteristics is so significant that ignoring it becomes problematic. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the predictive, probabilistic architecture modeling framework (P2AMF), capable of advanced and probabilistically sound reasoning about profitability risks. The P2AMF-based approach for profitability risk prediction is also based on the e3-value modeling language and on the object constraint language. The paper introduces the prediction and modeling approach, and a supporting software tool. The use of the approach is illustrated by means of a case study originated from the Stockholm Royal Seaport smart city project.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2014. Vol. 12, nr 4, s. 567-593
Emneord [en]
Goal interoperability, Probabilistic inference, Profitability, Risk analysis, Value networks
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-149175DOI: 10.1007/s10257-014-0237-4ISI: 000344741500005Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84912032840OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-149175DiVA, id: diva2:738218
Merknad

QC 20141215

Tilgjengelig fra: 2014-08-16 Laget: 2014-08-16 Sist oppdatert: 2017-12-05bibliografisk kontrollert

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