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Quantitative vulnerability analysis of electric power networks
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics.
2006 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

Disturbances in the supply of electric power can have serious implications for everyday life as well as for national (homeland) security. A power outage can be initiated by natural disasters, adverse weather, technical failures, human errors, sabotage, terrorism, and acts of war. The vulnerability of a system is described as a sensitivity to threats and hazards, and is measured by P (Q(t) > q), i.e. the probability of at least one disturbance with negative societal consequences Q larger than some critical value q, during a given period of time (0,t]. The aim of the thesis is to present methods for quantitative vulnerability analysis of electric power delivery networks to enable effective strategies for prevention, mitigation, response, and recovery to be developed.

Paper I provides a framework for vulnerability assessment of infrastructure systems. The paper discusses concepts and perspectives for developing a methodology for vulnerability analysis, and gives examples related to power systems.

Paper II analyzes the vulnerability of power delivery systems by means of statistical analysis of Swedish disturbance data. It is demonstrated that the size of large disturbances follows a power law, and that the occurrence of disturbances can be modeled as a Poisson process.

Paper III models electric power delivery systems as graphs. Statistical measures for characterizing the structure of two empirical transmission systems are calculated, and a structural vulnerability analysis is performed, i.e. a study of the connectivity of the graph when vertices and edges are disabled.

Paper IV discusses the origin of power laws in complex systems in terms of their structure and the dynamics of disturbance propagation. A branching process is used to model the structure of a power distribution system, and it is shown that the disturbance size in this analytical network model follows a power law.

Paper V shows how the interaction between an antagonist and the defender of a power system can be modeled as a game. A numerical example is presented, and it is studied if there exists a dominant defense strategy, and if there is an optimal allocation of resources between protection of components, and recovery.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH , 2006. , x, 37 p.
Series
Trita-TEC-PHD, ISSN 1653-4468 ; 06:001
Keyword [en]
Safety Analysis, vulnerability, homeland security, risk analysis, network, electric power system, blackout, power law, statistical analysis, graph theory, branching process, game theory
Keyword [sv]
Säkerhetsanalys
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3969ISBN: 91-85539-01-5 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-3969DiVA: diva2:10214
Public defence
2006-06-02, F2, KTH, Lindstedsvägen 28, Stockholm, 10:15
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20100831Available from: 2006-05-17 Created: 2006-05-17 Last updated: 2010-08-31Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Quantitative vulnerability analysis of electric power network
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Quantitative vulnerability analysis of electric power network
2006 (English)Article in journal (Refereed) In press
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-5738 (URN)
Note
Alternativ tietel: A framework for vulnerability assessment of electric power systems QC 20100831Available from: 2006-05-17 Created: 2006-05-17 Last updated: 2010-08-31Bibliographically approved
2. Using disturbance data to assess vulnerability of electric power delivery systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using disturbance data to assess vulnerability of electric power delivery systems
2006 (English)In: Journal of Infrastructure Systems, ISSN 1076-0342, Vol. 12, no 4, 243-251 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper we discuss how to assess the vulnerability of electric power delivery systems with the help of standard power system performance indices. In two case studies, statistical analyses of disturbance data from Swedish power transmission and distribution are presented and discussed. The following indicators are used in the case studies: unserved energy, power loss, restoration time, and the number of disturbances with power loss. We demonstrate that disturbance size Q for larger values of indices shows a power-law distribution, i.e., P(Q>q)=1-F(q)∼q (q→∞), and that the times of disturbances are distributed as a Poisson process

Keyword
Data analysis; Electric power outages, Information management, Reliability, Risk management, Statistics
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-5739 (URN)10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2006)12:4(243) (DOI)000208505900005 ()2-s2.0-33751103670 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20100831

Available from: 2006-05-17 Created: 2006-05-17 Last updated: 2013-05-23Bibliographically approved
3. Using graph models to analyze the vulnerability of electric power networks
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using graph models to analyze the vulnerability of electric power networks
2006 (English)In: Risk Analysis, ISSN 0272-4332, E-ISSN 1539-6924, Vol. 26, no 4, 955-969 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this article, we model electric power delivery networks as graphs, and conduct studies of two power transmission grids, i.e., the Nordic and the western states (U.S.) transmission grid. We calculate values of topological (structural) characteristics of the networks and compare their error and attack tolerance (structural vulnerability), i.e., their performance when vertices are removed, with two frequently used theoretical reference networks (the Erdos-Renyi random graph and the Barabasi-Albert scale-free network). Further, we perform a structural vulnerability analysis of a fictitious electric power network with simple structure. In this analysis, different strategies to decrease the vulnerability of the system are evaluated. Finally, we present a discussion on the practical applicability of graph modeling.

Keyword
electric power system; graph theory; intentional attack; network analysis; random failure; vulnerability
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-5740 (URN)10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00791.x (DOI)000239897400009 ()2-s2.0-33748439665 (Scopus ID)
Note
QC 20100831Available from: 2006-05-17 Created: 2006-05-17 Last updated: 2010-12-06Bibliographically approved
4. Structural vulnerability analysis of electric power networks
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Structural vulnerability analysis of electric power networks
(English)Manuscript (Other academic)
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-5741 (URN)
Note
QC 20100831Available from: 2006-05-17 Created: 2006-05-17 Last updated: 2010-08-31Bibliographically approved
5. Evaluating Strategies for Defending Electric Power Networks against Antagonistic Attacks
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Evaluating Strategies for Defending Electric Power Networks against Antagonistic Attacks
2007 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, ISSN 0885-8950, E-ISSN 1558-0679, Vol. 22, no 1, 76-84 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We show how concepts from game theory can be used to find and evaluate strategies for defending an electric power system against antagonistic attacks. Consequently, the interaction between the antagonist and the defender of the system is envisaged as a game. In a numerical example, we study the performance of different defense strategies against a number of attack scenarios. Particularly, we study whether there is a dominant defense strategy and an optimal allocation of resources between protection of components and recovery.

Keyword
Blackout, game theory, homeland security
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9955 (URN)10.1109/TPWRS.2006.889080 (DOI)000243914400009 ()2-s2.0-33947365606 (Scopus ID)
Note

Tidigare titel: Optimal defense of electric power networks against antagonistic attacks QC 20100831

Available from: 2009-02-20 Created: 2009-02-16 Last updated: 2016-05-16Bibliographically approved

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