Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Line Loss Prediction Model Design at Svenska kraftnät: Line Loss Prediction Based on Regression Analysis on Line Loss Rates and Optimisation Modelling on Nordic Exchange Flows
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES).
2016 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Forecast and estimation on transmission line losses is a vital task in the daily operation and planning of the Swedish power system. The aim with this thesis is to design a new line loss prediction model at Svenska kraftnät (Svk), which provides a hourly forecast of the transmission line losses the next day for the Swedish bidding areas (SE1-SE4). The final goal is to reduce the additional cost related to inaccurate predictions. The developed model is based on regression analysis on historical line losses and estimated exchange flows between the adjacent bidding areas computed by linear programming. Simulation results for 2015 show that it is, with rather simple estimates and assumptions, possible to increase the prediction accuracy with up to 27% compared with the existing method and to reduce the related costs in a similar way. The study also shows that future modelling has potential to increase the precision even further and recommends a Neural Network approach as the next step.

Abstract [sv]

Prognoser och estimering av stamnätsförluster är en central del i den dagliga driften av det svenska kraftsystemet. Den här uppsatsen har därför syftat till att utveckla en simuleringsmodell som ger en timvisprognos över morgondagens förluster i varje elområde (SE1-SE4). Detta verktyg är senare tänkt att precisera den dagliga upphandlingen av förluster och därmed minska kostnaden kopplad till osäkra prognoser. Den utvecklade modellen bygger på en regressionsanalys av tidigare uppmätta förluster och uppskattade transmissionsflöden mellan de närliggande elområdena beräknad med linjär programmering. Simulerignar för 2015 visar att, det med föhrhållandesvis enkla antaganden och uppskattningar av indata, går att precisera förlusterna med uppemot 27% jämfört med dagens prognos och därmed minska kostnaderna i liknande omfattning. Studien visar också att förbättringspotentialen är stor och rekommende-rar fortsatta studier utifrån en Neurala Nätverk modell.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. , 76 p.
Series
EES Examensarbete / Master Thesis, TRITA-EE 2016:109
Keyword [en]
Line Loss Prediction, Linear Regression, Lin-ear Programming, Nordic Exchange Flows, Net-position
Keyword [sv]
Förlustprognoser, Linjär Regression, Linjär Programmering, Nordiska Transmissionsflöden, Netto-positioner
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-193675OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-193675DiVA: diva2:1033577
External cooperation
SVK
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2016-10-07 Created: 2016-10-07 Last updated: 2016-10-07Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(2643 kB)47 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 2643 kBChecksum SHA-512
8741c052d524608b4f4f705ea7712f3d17cab6aac46f654b6dd51c7c4afd7362c4364eb57c4cd78ba04c9eaa051c131e242276b4b2aa3b83e56b0e2a841040ce
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
School of Electrical Engineering (EES)
Engineering and Technology

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 47 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 436 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf