Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Forecasting Balancing Market Prices Using Hidden Markov Models
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4490-9278
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6000-9363
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.
2016 (English)In: 2016 13TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET (EEM), IEEE conference proceedings, 2016Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based method to predict the prices and trading volumes in the electricity balancing markets. The HMM are quite powerful in modelling stochastic processes where the underlying dynamics are not apparent. The proposed method provides both one hour and 12-36 hour ahead forecasts. The first is mostly useful to wind/solar producers in order to compensate their production imbalances while the second is important when submitting the offers to the day ahead markets. The results are compared to the ones from Markov-autoregressive model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE conference proceedings, 2016.
Series
International Conference on the European Energy Market, ISSN 2165-4077
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-193848DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2016.7521229ISI: 000382910700053Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84983287360ISBN: 978-1-5090-1298-5 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-193848DiVA: diva2:1037704
Conference
13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), JUN 06-09, 2016, Porto, PORTUGAL
Note

QC 20161017

Available from: 2016-10-17 Created: 2016-10-11 Last updated: 2017-06-28Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1597 kB)42 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1597 kBChecksum SHA-512
2d8b75f3875c81525c7b44bdad4bb1f7fdd1301853f3634df60c0b92229a0447bf7470a954ec0e3e12c35f39ac488ce96a93d81b24723c6f6553d20d051320ee
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full textScopushttp://eem2016.com/

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Dimoulkas, IliasAmelin, MikaelHesamzadeh, Mohammad Reza
By organisation
Electric Power and Energy Systems
Probability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 42 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

doi
isbn
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
isbn
urn-nbn
Total: 315 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf