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A Markov Decision Process Model to Guide Treatment of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Automatic Control.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Automatic Control.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1927-1690
2016 (English)In: 2016 IEEE CONFERENCE ON CONTROL APPLICATIONS (CCA), IEEE, 2016Conference paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

An abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is an enlargement of the abdominal aorta which, if left untreated, can progressively widen and may rupture with fatal consequences. In this paper, we determine an optimal treatment policy using Markov decision process modeling. The policy is optimal with respect to the number of quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) that are expected to be accumulated during the remaining life of a patient. The new policy takes into account factors that are ignored by the current clinical policy (e.g. the life-expectancy and the age-dependent surgical mortality). The resulting optimal policy is structurally different from the current policy. In particular, the policy suggests that young patients with small aneurysms should undergo surgery. The robustness of the policy structure is demonstrated using simulations. A gain in the number of expected QALYs is shown, which indicates a possibility of improved care for patients with AAAs.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2016.
, IEEE International Conference on Control Applications, ISSN 1085-1992
Keyword [en]
Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), biosystems, decision making, Markov decision process (MDP), public health-care, treatment policy
National Category
Control Engineering
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-197033ISI: 000386696600057ISBN: 978-1-5090-0755-4OAI: diva2:1053100
IEEE Conference on Control Applications (CCA), SEP 19-22, 2016, Buenos Aires, ARGENTINA

QC 20161208

Available from: 2016-12-08 Created: 2016-11-28 Last updated: 2016-12-08Bibliographically approved

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