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Issues in Urban Travel Demand Modelling: ICT Implications and Trip timing choice
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9235-0232
2006 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

Travel demand forecasting is essential for many decisions, such as infrastructure investments and policy measures. Traditionally travel demand modelling has considered trip frequency, mode, destination and route choice. This thesis considers two other choice dimensions, hypothesised to have implications for travel demand forecasting. The first part investigates how the increased possibilities to overcome space that ICT (information and communication technology) provides, can be integrated in travel demand forecasting models. We find that possibilities of modelling substitution effects are limited, irrespective of data source and modelling approach. Telecommuting explains, however, a very small part of variation in work trip frequency. It is therefore not urgent to include effects from telecommuting in travel demand forecasting. The results indicate that telecommuting is a privilege for certain groups of employees, and we therefore expect that negative attitudes from management, job suitability and lack of equipment are important obstacles. We find also that company benefits can be obtained from telecommuting. No evidences that telecommuting gives rise to urban sprawl is, however, found. Hence, there is ground for promoting telecommuting from a societal, individual and company perspective.

The second part develops a departure time choice model in a mixed logit framework. This model explains how travellers trade-off travel time, travel time variability, monetary and scheduling costs, when choosing departure time. We explicitly account for correlation in unobserved heterogeneity over repeated SP choices, which was fundamental for accurate estimation of the substitution pattern. Temporal constraints at destination are found to mainly restrict late arrival. Constraints at origin mainly restrict early departure. Sensitivity to travel time uncertainty depends on trip type and intended arrival time. Given appropriate input data and a calibrated dynamic assignment model, the model can be applied to forecast peak-spreading effects in congested networks. Combined stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) data is used, which has provided an opportunity to compare observed and stated behaviour. Such analysis has previously not been carried out and indicates that there are systematic differences in RP and SP data.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH , 2006.
Series
Trita-TEC-PHD, ISSN 1653-4468 ; 06-002
Keyword [en]
Travel Demand, ICT, Tele-substitution, Revealed Preference, Stated Preference, Mixed Logit, Unobserved Heterogeneity, Travel Time Uncertainty, Schedule Delay
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-4092ISBN: 91-85539-04-X (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-4092DiVA: diva2:10695
Public defence
2006-09-29, M3, Maskinteknik, KTH, Brinellvägen 64 Entreplan, Stockholm, 10:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20100825Available from: 2006-09-05 Created: 2006-09-05 Last updated: 2010-09-10Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. A Communication Choice Model
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Communication Choice Model
2003 (English)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-6082 (URN)
Note
QC 20100825Available from: 2006-09-05 Created: 2006-09-05 Last updated: 2010-08-25Bibliographically approved
2. Telecommuting and work travel demand modelling in Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Telecommuting and work travel demand modelling in Sweden
2003 (English)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-6083 (URN)
Note
QC 20100825Available from: 2006-09-05 Created: 2006-09-05 Last updated: 2010-08-25Bibliographically approved
3. Company incentives and tools for promoting telecommuting
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Company incentives and tools for promoting telecommuting
2006 (English)In: Environment and Behavior, ISSN 0013-9165, E-ISSN 1552-390X, Vol. 38, no 4, 521-549 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The aim of this article is to identify company and employee benefits from telecommuting. Telecommuting implies that a large proportion of the company's office space is unoccupied. To use this efficiently, flexible offices could be introduced in which the employees do not have their own office but use any desk in an open office space. In addition, if telecommuting implies reductions in office space in which employees donate the use of their homes - rent free - to the employer, it is quite fair for the employer to consider returning some of that savings to the telecommuters in compensation for the use of their homes. The results indicate that employees are in fact sensitive to the monetary compensation and that company benefits could be obtained.

Keyword
Company benefits, Flexible office, Individual preferences, Mixed logit, Rental savings, Telecommuting, Work efficiencies
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9969 (URN)10.1177/0013916505283422 (DOI)000238357300005 ()2-s2.0-33744480284 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20100816

Available from: 2009-02-16 Created: 2009-02-16 Last updated: 2015-04-21Bibliographically approved
4. Departure Time Modelling: Applicability and Travel Time Uncertainty
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Departure Time Modelling: Applicability and Travel Time Uncertainty
2006 (English)In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-6085 (URN)
Note
QS 20120316Available from: 2006-09-05 Created: 2006-09-05 Last updated: 2012-03-16Bibliographically approved
5. Joint RP-SP data in a mixed logit analysis of trip timing decisions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Joint RP-SP data in a mixed logit analysis of trip timing decisions
2008 (English)In: Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, ISSN 1366-5545, E-ISSN 1878-5794, Vol. 44, no 6, 1025-1038 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the current paper, a departure time choice model including travel time variability is estimated, combining stated preference and revealed preference data. We account for response scale differences between RP and SP data and, applying the mixed logit model, test for correlation of scheduling sensitivity across RP and SP choices within individuals. The analysis implies systematic differences in the RP and SP data. With support of the evaluation from the Stockholm trial, this indicates that SP is less trustworthy for trip timing analysis and forecasting, presumably because there are temporal differences in RP and SP choice situations.

Keyword
Revealed preference, Stated preference, Mixed logit, Unobserved heterogeneity, Travel time uncertainty, Schedule delay
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-24217 (URN)10.1016/j.tre.2007.11.001 (DOI)000259461200005 ()2-s2.0-48649105675 (Scopus ID)
Note
QC 20100825Available from: 2010-08-25 Created: 2010-08-25 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved

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