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Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science. WSP Analysis & Strategy, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6818-4369
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1789-9238
2017 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 96, p. 101-118Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We have compared Swedish national forecasts for passenger transport produced from 1975 to 2009 with the actual outcomes, and we found substantial differences between forecasts of passenger kilometers by mode and actual outcomes. In forecasts produced since the early 1990 s, road and air traffic growth rates have generally been overpredicted. Aggregate railway growth has been fairly accurate, but commercial long-distance railway growth has been overpredicted, and the growth of subsidized intra-regional railway travel has been underpredicted (following vast unanticipated supply increases). Focusing on car traffic forecasts, we show that a very large share of forecast errors can be explained by input variables turning out to be different than what was assumed in the forecasts. Even the original forecasts are much closer to actual outcomes than simple trendlines would have been, and once the input assumptions are corrected, the forecasts vastly outperform simple trendlines. The potential problems of using cross-sectional models for forecasting intertemporal changes thus seem to be limited. This tentative conclusion is also supported by the finding that elasticities from the cross-sectional models are consistent with those from a time-series model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2017. Vol. 96, p. 101-118
Keywords [en]
Accuracy, Demand modeling, Forecast, Transport, Validation
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-201016DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.12.008ISI: 000393265100009Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85008392745OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-201016DiVA, id: diva2:1072281
Note

QC 20170207

Available from: 2017-02-07 Created: 2017-02-07 Last updated: 2017-10-26Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Policy Analysis for Different Types of Decision-Making Situations
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Policy Analysis for Different Types of Decision-Making Situations
2017 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis seeks to contribute to decision support for policy makers in the transport sector. In order to frame the papers and to relate them to the broad field of “policy analysis”, I have structured the papers around a simple framework with three decision levels: responsibility, policy gap, and policy measure. The thesis contains five papers.

“Transaction and transition costs during the deregulation of the Swedish Railway market” is a paper in the transaction cost school. We studied the costs associated with the shift from monopoly to competition in the Swedish railway market, and we found that the change resulted in comparatively small transaction costs, but that transition and misalignment costs seem to be larger. 

In “Parking policy under strategic interaction”, I examined the effect of strategic interaction between jurisdictions using an analytical model based on Hotelling’s linear city model. I conclude that the procedure for setting supply in most municipalities has a strong downward effect on municipal parking fees and that resource flow competition implies that the fees are higher than the efficient prices (but that the effect of the supply procedures makes this effect incongruous).

In “Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport”, we followed up the Swedish national forecasts for passenger transport produced from 1975 to 2009 and tried to explain the deviations. We found that the forecasts during the last decades have overestimated car traffic, and that this is due to input errors. The potential problem of using cross-sectional models for forecasting intertemporal changes seems to have been limited.

In “The kilometer tax and Swedish industry - effects on sectors and regions”, we estimated factor demand elasticities in the Swedish manufacturing industry and used these to analyze the effects of a kilometer tax for heavy goods vehicles. We found that the kilometer tax leads to factor substitution in that it decreases transport demand and increases labor demand. The effects on output are less pronounced.  

In “The effect of minimum parking requirements on the housing stock”, we used a model of the rental, asset, and construction markets. We quality-assured our assumptions and our results through interviews with market actors. In our example suburb, we found that parking norms reduced the housing stock by 1.2% and increased rents by 2.4%. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. p. 49
Keywords
transaction cost, transition cost, misalignment, parking policy, strategic interaction, spillover, resource flow, reference forecast, kilometer tax, minimum parking requirements
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-216974 (URN)978-91-88537-04-1 (ISBN)
Public defence
2017-11-17, Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 8, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Transport AdministrationSwedish Environmental Protection Agency
Note

QC 20171026

Available from: 2017-10-26 Created: 2017-10-26 Last updated: 2017-10-31Bibliographically approved

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