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A hybrid scheme for real-time prediction of bus trajectories: Hybrid Scheme for Real-Time Prediction
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0089-6543
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4506-0459
2017 (English)In: Journal of Advanced Transportation, ISSN 0197-6729, E-ISSN 2042-3195, Vol. 50, no 8, 2130-2149 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The uncertainty associated with public transport services can be partially counteracted by developing real-time models to predict downstream service conditions. In this study, a hybrid approach for predicting bus trajectories by integrating multiple predictors is proposed. The prediction model combines schedule, instantaneous and historical data. The contribution of each predictor as well as values of respective parameters is estimated by minimizing the prediction error using a linear regression heuristic.The hybrid method was applied to five bus lines in Stockholm, Sweden and Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that the hybrid method consistently outperforms the timetable and delay conservation prediction method for different line layouts, passengerdemands and operation practices.Model validation confirms model transferability and real-time applicability. Generating more accurate predictions can helpservice users adjust their travel plans and service providers to deploy proactive management and control strategies to mitigate the negative effects of service disturbances.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2017. Vol. 50, no 8, 2130-2149 p.
Keyword [en]
travel time prediction, hybrid model, real-time information, vehicle trajectory, bus reliability, linear regression heuristic
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203964DOI: 10.1002/atr.1450ISI: 000401555900034Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85014802731OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-203964DiVA: diva2:1083355
Note

QC 20170328

Available from: 2017-03-21 Created: 2017-03-21 Last updated: 2017-06-09Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf