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Multi-model projections of future hydro-climatic and nutrient-load evolution in the Sava River Catchment
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Land and Water Resources Engineering. Department of Physical Geography and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Applied Hydraulics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, University of Split, Split, Croatia..ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1225-3526
Department of Physical Geography and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden..
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The direct output of the multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercompariosn Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the Sava River Catchment shows high uncertainty of hydro-climatic changes for the two future scenarios but exhibits overall agreement with the direction of the changes with results of some previous studies conducted for the SRC. Of particular importance are runoff changes induced by climate change as they might influence nutrient pollution in the catchment and as such cause water quality issues on a subcatchment to catchment scale. Such changes might have impact not only for the waters of the SRC but also the Danube River Catchment and the Black Sea. As none of the models shows to out-perfom any other model in reproducing observed temperature and water fluxes or their changes, nutrient yield calculation based on the ensemble mean and particular models show wide range of results and make any possible conclusions challenging and potentially misleading.

Keyword [en]
Sava River Catchment, Subcatchment, CMIP5, climate models, Hydro-climatic change, Dissolved inorganic nitrogen, Total phosphorus
National Category
Other Environmental Engineering
Research subject
Land and Water Resources Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-207099OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-207099DiVA: diva2:1095749
Projects
VR 2009-3221
Note

QC 20170522

Available from: 2017-05-15 Created: 2017-05-15 Last updated: 2017-05-22Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Data-driven analysis of water and nutrient flows: Case of the Sava River Catchment and comparison with other regions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Data-driven analysis of water and nutrient flows: Case of the Sava River Catchment and comparison with other regions
2017 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A growing human population and demands for food, freshwater and energy are causing extensive changes in the water and biogeochemical cycles of river catchments around the world. Addressing and investigating such changes is particularly important for transboundary river catchments, where they impose additional risk to a region’s stability. This thesis investigates and develops data-driven methodologies for detecting hydro-climatic and nutrient load changes and their drivers with limited available data and on different catchment scales. As a specific case study, we analyze the Sava River Catchment (SRC) and compare its results with other world regions. A past–present to future evaluation of hydro-climatic data is done on the basis of a water balance approach including analysis of historic developments of land use and hydropower development data and projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) output. Using observed water discharge and nutrient concentration data, we propose a novel conceptual model for estimating and spatially resolving total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) input and delivery-retention properties for a river catchment and its nested subcatchments, as well as detection of nutrient hotspots. The thesis identifies hydroclimatic change signals of hydropower-related drivers and finds consistency with other world regions. The proposed nutrient screening methodology provides a good distinction between human-related nutrient inputs and landscape-related transport influences on nutrient loading at subcatchment to catchment scale. A cross-regional comparison of the SRC data with the Baltic region shows similarity between nutrient-relevant indicators and driving socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The study highlights a number of complexities with regard to CMIP5 model representation of water fluxes. The large intermodel range of CMIP5 future projections of fluxes calls for caution when using individual model results for assessing ongoing and future water and nutrient changes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. 30 p.
Series
TRITA-LWR. PHD, ISSN 1650-8602 ; 2017:03
Keyword
River catchment, Transboundary, Hydro-climatic change, Total nitrogen, Total phosphorus, CMIP5
National Category
Water Engineering
Research subject
Land and Water Resources Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-207102 (URN)978-91-7729-415-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2017-06-08, Sal F3, Lindstedtsvägen 26, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Projects
VR 2009-3221FORMAS 2014-43
Note

QC 20170516

Available from: 2017-05-16 Created: 2017-05-15 Last updated: 2017-05-17Bibliographically approved

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Output format
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