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Effects of levee cover strength on flood mapping in the case of levee breach due to overtopping
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering.
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2017 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, no 6, p. 892-910Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The reliability of a levee system is a crucial factor in flood risk management. In this study we present a probabilistic methodology to assess the effects of levee cover strength on levee failure probability, triggering time, flood propagation and consequent impacts on population and assets. A method for determining fragility curves is used in combination with the results of a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model to estimate the conditional probability of levee failure in each river section. Then, a levee breach model is applied to calculate the possible flood hydrographs, and for each breach scenario a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to estimate flood hazard (flood extent and timing, maximum water depths) and flood impacts (economic damage and affected population) in the areas at risk along the river reach. We show an application for levee overtopping and different flood scenarios for a 98 km reach of the lower Po River in Italy. The results show how different design solutions for the levee cover can influence the probability of levee failure and the consequent flood scenarios. In particular, good grass cover strength can significantly delay levee failure and reduce maximum flood depths in the flood-prone areas, thus helping the implementation of flood risk management actions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor and Francis Ltd. , 2017. Vol. 62, no 6, p. 892-910
Keywords [en]
flood propagation, levee breach, levee cover strength, overtopping, Po River, Economic and social effects, Embankments, Flood control, Fluid dynamics, Hydrodynamics, Levees, Probability, Risk management, Risk perception, Rivers, Conditional probabilities, Levee breaches, One-dimensional hydrodynamic model, Probabilistic methodology, Two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling, Floods
National Category
Ocean and River Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-207350DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2016.1246800ISI: 000399556800003Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85011690563OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-207350DiVA, id: diva2:1097303
Note

QC 20170522

Available from: 2017-05-22 Created: 2017-05-22 Last updated: 2017-06-02Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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Output format
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