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A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science
KTH, Centres, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics NORDITA.
2017 (English)In: Scientific Reports, ISSN 2045-2322, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 7, 44228Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. Vol. 7, 44228
Keyword [en]
albedo, Arctic, dipole, El Nino, memory, noise, sea ice, season, stochastic model, time series analysis
National Category
Climate Research
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-208018DOI: 10.1038/srep44228Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85015158027OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-208018DiVA: diva2:1106306
Note

QC 20170607

Available from: 2017-06-07 Created: 2017-06-07 Last updated: 2017-06-07Bibliographically approved

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  • apa
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  • de-DE
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  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
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Output format
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