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Prospects for economic growth in the 21st century: A survey covering mainstream, heterodox and scientifically oriented perspectives
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Environmental Strategies Research (fms).
2017 (English)In: Economic Issues, ISSN 1363-7029, Vol. 22, 65-87 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Despite the importance of economic growth for the current economy, business and societal planning there are few long-term growth projections undertaken. There is, however, a vivid debate on what is called the 'new normal' - secular stagnation - which is undertaken within academic disciplines. This overview covers mainstream, heterodox and scientifically oriented economic perspectives on the prospects for economic growth in the 21st century. The survey shows that existing long-term projections and scenarios indicate growth rates ranging from around half a percentage point less than during the last two decades (projected by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD), to dramatically lower growth rates). Differences stem from different perspectives on the determinants of economic growth and the potential for improvements in productivity. Headwinds are: an aging population, especially in OECD countries; resource constraints, including energy; increasing environmental costs in particular due to the consequences of climate change; overaccumulation; increasing income differences; and declining social capital. One conclusion is that policymaking based on the assumption that economic growth will continue at pre-crisis levels is unwise and risky.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ECONOMIC ISSUES EDUCATION FUND , 2017. Vol. 22, 65-87 p.
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-210508ISI: 000402872500004OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-210508DiVA: diva2:1119572
Note

QC 20170704

Available from: 2017-07-04 Created: 2017-07-04 Last updated: 2017-07-04Bibliographically approved

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