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Techno-economic demand projections and scenarios for the Bolivian energy system
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis. UMSS, Bolivia.
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
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2017 (English)In: Energy Strategy Reviews, ISSN 2211-467X, E-ISSN 2211-4688, Vol. 16, 96-109 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Increasing energy access in emerging economies has played an important role to maintain or achieve desirable social and economic development targets. As a consequence, the growing energy requirements need policy instruments to ensure energy supply for future generations. The literature reports many studies with different approaches to model and test policy measures in the energy sector, however few energy-related studies for Bolivia are available. This paper addresses this knowledge gap, representing the first national level energy demand model and projections for Bolivia. The model use demographic, economic, technology and policy trends with a pragmatic model structure that combines bottom-up and top-down modelling. The scenario analysis has a particular focus on alternatives for energy savings, energy mix diversification and air quality. Three scenarios were analysed: Energy Savings, Fuel Substitution and the aggregate effects in a Combined scenario. The reference scenario results show the overall energy consumption grows 134% in 2035 compared to 2012 with an annual average growth of 3.8%. The final energy demand in the energy savings scenario is 8.5% lower than the Reference scenario, 1.5% lower in the fuel substitution scenario and 9.4% lower in the combined Scenario. The aggregate impact of both energy savings and fuel substitution measures leads to potential avoided emissions of 25.84 million Tons of CO2 equivalent in the model horizon 2012-2035.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2017. Vol. 16, 96-109 p.
Keyword [en]
Energy demand projections, Bottom-up, Top-down, Energy savings, Avoided emissions
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-211031DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2017.03.001ISI: 000403986600008Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85018526871OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-211031DiVA: diva2:1121674
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, 75000554-06Swedish Research Council
Note

QC 20170712

Available from: 2017-07-12 Created: 2017-07-12 Last updated: 2017-07-12Bibliographically approved

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Pena Balderrama, J. GabrielaBroad, OliverHowells, Mark

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
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